To add to this, Chafin spent his 1st 7 years in Arizona. Maybe he wanted to go back somewhere he's familiar with.
What’s great about Brown is he is willing to push Crane to the limit Crane has extended multiple players over the years so whether he will do so isn’t the question The issue with Click is he seemed pretty passive, if he wanted to extend a player and Crane pushed back he was likely done with it. Brown is gonna push and push and push to get deals done. Very likely with mixed results I was one who wanted Correa signed but who knows what happens if we sign him, the MVP likely don’t get the same chances all year he did with Correa gone
Brown is older, has more experience in baseball, and seems very confident. Given who Crane has endeared himself to over the years (baseball lifers, or ultra-confident/cocky individuals like Jeff Luhnow), it seems that he has a "type". Dana Brown may very well be a hybrid of the baseball lifers (reggie Jackson, Jeff Bagwell) that Crane loves and an ultra-confident/cocky personality that Jeff Luhnow enamored people with. I still feel having guys like Click who can really crunch the numbers and take a very pragmatic/careful approach are integral front office members... but having that ruthless/kliller-instinct personality type is not necessarily something that can be taught. Then again, that's probably what led to the "toxic" culture that had the Astros front office under fire not too long ago.
And that just goes to show the crapshoot that is baseball. We undoubtedly would have been a better team over 162 with Carlos- he's just a better player. WE might not have won a title without Pena getting hot in the post season. Maybe Carlos hits 500 and slugs 2000 and we sweep the entire playoffs. Or, maybe we don't even make it out of the first round because Pena doesn't serve up that knuckle ball down to our last strike so Yordan never hits the HR and maybe we roll over and lose in 3. It's impossible to say and the correct math guarantees nothing other than the best result. But just barely.
You’re a good poster, and I like a lot of what you post. But winning the World Series is going 100/100. Still criticizing them is being ungrateful. They were right about Correa. Right about Marte. Right about Chafin. It was proven out in reality.
All true, although we don’t just roll over very often in big games I wasn’t much of a Click fan but I do think he got that one right
It certainly didn’t make the team better over the long haul (162 game regular season)- and when we decided to stuff that 35M in Cranes pocket rather than use it to improve the team it did nothing to improve my fan experience, but it worked out fabulously. I’ve played at many a black jack table where some moron hits a 16 against a dealer 6 and he gets a 5 and then the dealer busts and it all works out fabulously because he hit that 16, when hitting it was absolutely the mathematically incorrect decision. Funny thing about that guy is he usually is in his pocket or leaving the table within 20 minutes, flat broke and busted. The math is the math. Luck, streaks, timing, good fortune, whatever you want to call it matters too. We got one back for 2019. We are taking about a game where the shitty ass Oakland A’s took 5 out of 6 from us over a 10 day stretch and nobody batted an eye bc that’s the nature of baseball. You can’t guarantee anything over a short series. It’s maddening. And thrilling. And a jumbled up mess all at once.
Appreciate the kind words. About the 100/100 thing… I think most people would agree that the 2019 Astros were the best/most talented team during this golden age of Astros baseball, but they lost to the Nats in 7. Wouldn’t it be difficult to say that Crane and company did worse in 2019 in terms of building a team than they did in 2021? I mean they landed Grienke in a trade and that pitching 2019 pitching staff was an all timer. It’s not Cranes fault that the players (and arguably Hinch) underperformed versus the Nats. But it seems you’re judging Cranes performance solely by postseason results, some of which he has no control over or impact on. They ended up right about Correa. I’ll gladly concede that. I don’t see how they were right about Marte. It would be difficult to argue that the Astros were a stronger team with Chaz in CF than Marte in CF. Does Marte make the catch against the wall in Philly? No idea, but let’s say no because you just can’t assume a player makes an all time great catch. But the credit for that goes to Chaz, not Crane. Based on all the comments regarding the Crane/Click conflict, I think even Crane would tell you he would have rather had Marte in CF over Chaz. It is fair to question whether Marte on the Astros would have precluded the Abreu signing (which I absolutely love). Maybe, maybe not. If so, then that’s sort of on management for deciding to spend less. I guess I would just say this. Crane and company have done an incredible job of assembling great rosters capable of winning it all. And twice they broke through. Ultimately, it should make little difference if we score their performance last year as 100/100 or 97/100 or 95/100. Great is great. But I would suggest that scoring them as 95 or 97 isn’t ungrateful. (Subjectively, I’d say giving them an 85-90 would be harsh). I’d also say that 100/100 is an indication that management was perfect, and as great a job as they did, I find it difficult to say they were literally perfect. I think my posts (especially about the post season and being there for Game 6 last year and Game 3 in 2017) reflect my enjoyment of this golden era and how grateful I am that I got to watch it with my kids. For me anyway, part of the enjoyment of baseball is the analytics and discussion of team building.
totally agree. I think what it comes down to is whether Crane should spend that extra $__MM to increase our championship odds by 2%. I think that is literally the question he has to answer every offseason because as constructed, the roster has been good enough to be on the short list of contenders. And when you have anomalies like the 2019 Nats winning it all and the 2022 Phillies pushing the Astros to 6 games, it is easy to see why Crane would rather pocket that $___MM. [edit: it’s not my money, so yeah, I want him to spend it and buy us that 2 percent] In a perfect world, Crane is as rich as Steve Cohen and can spend like a drunken sailor, Crane hires Brown as GM and has Luhnow on an advisory retainer, makes Oz Campo assistant GM and El Presidente of Latin American baseball, gives Strommy a lifetime achievement award and lets him consult via FaceTime, and we have the best farm system and FA signings in the history of baseball. I don’t know what I would do if that ever happened, but it sure would be fun. And yet, with baseball, we would have no more than 22% or 24% chance of winning the title.
I don't think the number is anywhere near that. More like 12-14%. We are in the +600 to +700 range in Vegas. That certainly doesn't suggest 22-24%.
yeah, I was just fabricating a number for a fictional team that is comprised of our elite homegrown talent and crazy FA signings. Honestly, even then, it’s u likely to be over 20 percent, it with how baseball actually works.
The Dodgers were just that last few season and we know how that turned out for them. Best pitching, best hitters, most money, etc. It makes our sustained success even more impressive. It's also the reason we lost the 2 WS that we did. We were favorites in both.
So- here’s the middle road that I would want crane to pursue that he has not… spend until there isn’t a glaring hole on the team. we could have gotten there with an extra 20M this year for Contreras. That would have been a team without a glaring hole. I’m not demanding all star production everywhere- just don’t leave a position on the team 10, 20, 30% below league average while also being tons of money away from the luxury tax line. If there’s nowhere else you need to/can spend the money then start calling agents and extending guys with the left over money. This literally isn’t particularly complicated. Having a team this good in a decent market and not spending to the tax line while leaving major hopes that could be easily fixed with money should be derided by the fanbase, not celebrated. I say that because I’m acutely aware of how fortunate we are in this time period. I KNOW that I will never have it this good as a fan again, that no fan has it better, and it makes me sort of crazy to think that ownership doesn’t appreciate that and is t willing to do everything they can to maximize this window.
But who determines what a hole is? We as fans have clamored for Maldy to be replaced at catcher but at the same time, Strom called him the team MVP for 2021. There is no DH for catcher. Does replacing Maldy with Contreras improve offense while pitching plummets and the team is actually worse overall?
You don’t have any option other than him so you get a bunch of self serving nonsense. Catcher is a joke and a weak spot. At a minimum you could have signed Comtreras and played him 70 games at catcher- 15 at 1B, 30 in alF/DH and had him available to Ph the other 40 games and been much better off this year and infinitely more set at the position for 2024-26 when you still expect to contend.
Beyond the fact that the Astros may not consider catcher a glaring hole, you're talking about spending money for 5 years - that could preclude them from fixing other glaring holes in future years. You see $20MM and see it as simply unspent. The team could see it as an avenue to extend various pitchers. Or keep flexibility for a deadline Verlander-type acquisition. Or see it keeping funds free to address a new glaring hole that appears next year (maybe Lee or Diaz turns out great but Chaz flops).
Also have to consider things like if we did sign Correa to that contract, maybe we don't sign Abreu so quickly this offseason. We don't know for sure, just like we don't know how Abreu will turn out for sure. But i'll take Pena + Abreu over Correa + Yuli moving forward, even as much as I loved rooting for Correa and Yuli
I was in favor of the Astros bringing in Contreras and other options that were considered. But that's not because I think catcher is a weak spot, or "hole" with Maldy the starter. I wanted a good veteran co-starter because catcher as a position requires a 2nd player at least 25% of the time, Maldy is old and susceptible to injury, and 2023 will be his final season as a player.
