In 2023: Tucker will be 26 and entering his arbitration years. Has 129 OPS+ and averaged 4.8 bWAR per 150g. Judge just signed a 9 yr/ $360M contract for his ages 31-39 seasons. Has 163 OPS+ and averaged 7.6 bWAR per 150g. Tucker has yet to peak while Judge clearly has. Obviously for the money everyone would choose Tucker over Judge. But only looking at Performance, can Tucker outperform Judge over the next 9 seasons? If Tucker outperforms Judge the next 3 seasons, does he get a 9 yr $360M contract at age 29, 2 years younger than Judge did?
There is no way in hell Tucker will get the same contract unless Tucker hits 60 homeruns and has an OPS above 1 or is in the high 900's every season before free agency. Judge just happened to have a historical season after having a historical rookie season before entering free agency and he did it for the Yankees. Tucker will get a contract in the high mid to high 20's AAV for 6-8 years.
I think it is NEARLY impossible for Tucker to get 9 / $360 when he becomes a free agent. Salaries in general would need to take another huge step up and he would need to play a lot of great baseball the next 3 years. There are 3 numbers. 1) Judge's 9 / $360M 2) what the Astros end up offering him. 3) what he ends up getting. I will bet that 3 is closer to 1 than it is to 2.
A 10 yr extension now would only commit him through his age 35 season so it may take 12 years to get him to sign unless Crane is willing to go big on the AAV. But every year that goes by in creases the price and makes it less likely. Maybe offer 6 yrs so he's still only 32 when he hits FA? But that would take $130M+ Offer 12 yrs so he does not need to worry about another contract ever? But that would take $300M
If I was Tucker I'd agree to the highest yearly salary on the shortest deal Crane had to offer. 6 years ago nobody thought deals would be this high. His game should play well in RF for years to come. He will slow down some but if he is a free agent in say 6 years he'll get paid, maybe big time money. Everything on the world just keeps going up and up. I'd bet on security first then myself for generational money. If he was to get a life altering event tomorrow he'd wished he signed for something.
Tucker is talented enough to outperform him especially considering larger athletes tend to age quicker. Judge is a great player but he is older and has already had his career year. I expect Judge to outperform him for a year or so but by the end of 9 Tucker will have sprinted past him.
Judge has averaged 6.2 WAR the past 5 seasons. Tucker has averaged 5.3 WAR his 3 seasons. ( 2020 was ×2.7 for both) I projected prime as ages 28-33. Ages 26 and 27 each 10% increase from previous. 34= 95% 35=-10% 36= -15% 37= -20% 38= -25% 39= -25% Season - Judge - Tucker 2023. - 6.2. - 5.8 2024. - 6.2. - 6.4 2025. - 6.2. - 6.4 2026. - 5.9. - 6.4 2027. - 5.3. - 6.4 2028. - 4.5. - 6.4 2029. - 3.6. - 6.4 2030. - 2.7. - 6.4 2031. - 2.0. - 6.1 Judge 42.6 WAR over 9 years. Has 79.6 WAR at age 40 Tucker 56.7 WAR over next 9 years Has 69.4 WAR at age 35.
Tucker is due around $40M over the next 3 years in arbitration. There are 3 outfielders making $30M+ in AAV and they're all MVPs. The next crop is around $25M AAV. With inflation let's say an AAV looks like $27.5M for Tucker? Buy out the 3 years of arbitration at $50M and essentially give him a 6 year FA deal which Crane should be comfortable with. 9 years at $215M for $23.88M AAV. Would it take $30M to get him to sign a non mega deal? Even then $230M over 9 years is an affordable $25.5M AAV It makes sense to lock him up now to spread the AAV out longer to give us a touch more cap flexibility. Gives him longterm security and he'll enter FA at 35? That's the only thing in that he might want more years to get through at least 35 or 36.
10-300 to keep ol' boy around. Most consistant player on the team and not even close. (no bias, just faxx)
In 3 years, barring a major global recession, Tucker will have an AAV in the 30’s unless it’s a 10 year deal (and even then he might.). 8/250 would be my guess. Is it possible it’s 10/260? Sure. It won’t be 8/200 though which would be mid 20’s over 8 years and it certainly won’t be 6/160. Projecting him being as good the next three years as the last 2. If he’s better he will get 10/300+
I truly believe he wouldn’t take any 6 year contract today/ but if he were going to it would have to be for 150.
This is an imminently fair deal. If we offered him that and he turned it down I’d shrug my shoulders and tip my cap to Crane and the FO for being realistic, fair and trying to get something done.
If Tucker does not settle on an extension before his arbitration hearing he will lose that hearing and make 5 million this year lowering the baseline for his next two hearings. I would offer to buy out his Arb years for 25 m and add another 80-85 for three additional years.
I think he laughs. You are saying 6 yrs and $110M? Judge just got 9 yrs $360M and he is 5 yrs older. Absolutely no way he gives up his 3 best prime FA years for under $30M each without it being at least a 10 yr deal. If the Astros want his age 29-31 seasons but not any after that he won't settle for that and likely not for less than $35M+ per season. And it would Be an insulting offer in the Carlos Correa vein. Teams can't cherry pick unless they give something. Add some to the arbitration years or give more years or more AAV otherwise it's a complete waste of time. Absolute minimum offer is 6 yrs / $145M or 10 yrs / $240 or let him go in 3 seasons. And I think Tucker won't take anything that low. He will just wait for his in 3 years. Judge 5 years older just got 9 yrs at $40M per year. No other possibilities.
So George Springer's arbitration started at $3.9M and ended up $27.9M for the 3 yrs. You expect Tucker, in a higher paying MLB environment to get $5M his first year but end up with less for the 3 season total?
Yeah- I just don’t think he’s going to be keen on giving away 29-31 at market value. I think the 6 year number would need to be higher based upon my reading of the tea levels. Maybe you could get a 4/80 deal? Gibes you 2 year and an aav of 20M. If he gets the 7.5 as a baseline it’s more like 40 than 25. a 29 year old Tucker on a 1 year deal would fetch 40M. If his production is a 5 WAR guy. I wouldn’t do that on the team side now that I’m thinking about it.
