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2023 Astros Minor League Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by tellitlikeitis, Dec 1, 2022.

  1. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I would be interested in seeing the production of homegrown talent by team over the last 5 years since Houston’s farm has been downgraded by all the experts. And I really don’t see that production stopping anytime soon.
     
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  2. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    The Astros farm based on guys called up in the last 5 years is going to confirm the 2019 farm was as dominant as the lists said. Maybe even more dominant. The rankings have dropped as the Astros promoted guys that were in the system in 2019. Is Diaz the only Click guy to make the majors?

    I'm really not excited about the 2020 and 2021 draft classes. I am higher on Leon than the lists, but he look like a risky prospect. 2022 draft class looks better as well. Some interesting IFAs but they are either young still or relievers.

    The only saving grace for the Astros farm is the MLB team is stacked such that the Astros don't need as many rookies as most teams (i.e. the Astros don't have to play as many bad rookies). I don't think the effect of weak farms will be felt until 2026, but even then there is time to fix the problem as the MLB team is so good.
     
  3. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Jose Siri and Seth Martinez were also Click acquisitions who made their MLB debut with Houston along with Yainer Diaz. Siri and Diaz have serious potential to be core/star players. Chayce McDermott also contributed via the Mancini trade. But you’re right that the years where the lower ranked farm might show up in the majors are probably still in the future.

    You can look at the projected opening day rosters on the farm and see the impact of the loss of draft picks in the middle levels. But I think they have/will adjust promotion timelines to accommodate that, and I expect they will have some guys break out. I will be surprised if there are any Altuve/Yordan/Correa/Bregman level players currently in this farm system, but I do think there are some Tucker/Springer/Gurriel/Marwin level players and I am virtually certain there are some Keuchel/Framber/Musgrove/McCullers/Javier/Garcia/Abreu/Urquidy level pitchers.
     
    #243 Snake Diggit, Feb 4, 2023
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2023
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  4. awc713

    awc713 Member

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    No surprise here
     
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  5. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I thought Siri was called up by Reds, but you are correct.

    While the Astros will get guys to develop, if the Astros major league team was the Reds instead of the Astros, we would be in a very bad place.

    I doubt Click acquired a future Cy Young winner.

    If the Astros farm was as good as you make it out to be, the Astros would have traded for Murphy. The Astros really don’t need that much from the farm for the next 3 years so there really is no need to hoard.
     
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  6. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    I can think of 4 reasons why.

    I can think of 2 reasons why.

    ETA:
    Isn't this how MiLB player and team ratings work?

    Each draft class is fully vetted. Consensus top draft picks will remain top prospects, based on their original draft profile. It is both hard for top picks to lose their shine and lower round picks to break into top 100 lists.
     
    #246 No Worries, Feb 4, 2023
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2023
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  7. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I knew you were going to seize on Keuchel winning the cy young, but that’s not generally the level he pitched at and I wasn’t talking just about Click’s acquisitions in that comment; I was talking about the whole of the farm that has been and continues to be lowly rated. There may not be a future Cy Young winner in the current farm, but I would bet there is a guy who can be good enough to be a #2 SP on a World Series team.

    Wrt your comment on Murphy, one thing Houston might be affected by is that other teams don’t value their prospects appropriately. The Murphy trade was especially odd and shows Oakland values prospects much differently than most teams. So it may not be that the Astros are intentionally hoarding prospects, but that other teams aren’t valuing them appropriately.
     
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  8. Screaming Fist

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    Even after the ‘20 and ‘21 drafts? I think they will be good for a few more years but things could start getting pretty tough for the org beginning around 2025.
     
  9. Screaming Fist

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    As time has gone on, I feel like Click’s moves in terms of trades FA signings, Rule 5 draft (Martinez) look a little better in retrospect than they did at the time outside of Baez. However, I agree with you that those 20 and 21 drafts are going to be a big hurdle to overcome, even if Click was fairy above average in terms of player evaluation.
     
  10. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    The 2020 draft was one of the worst drafts in a very long time as a whole across all teams so I think most teams will fail to get much out of it. I also think between the holdover talent from the Luhnow era, the 2022 and future drafts, the long lead time on international signee development, and their ability to snag an underrated prospect here and there (like Click did with Siri and Diaz), that the stream will continue to be pretty steady.
     
  11. sealclubber1016

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    I would be more concerned about how bad our farm is if we haven't been told how bad our farm is for a few years now. Our farm was one of the worst after 2020, and we had Bryan Abreu, Jeremy Pena, Hunter Brown, Luis Garcia and Chas McCormick in it.

    Not having top picks in 20 and 21 hurt, but these farm ranking are exclusively ranked on high end hyped prospects, and little else.
     
  12. BlindHog

    BlindHog Member

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    The Click years with the Astros where uncharacteristically poor when it comes to bringing in and utilizing prospects. Some of that can be attributed to missing out on the top two rounds for two years but the results are proving to be much worse than that would indicate. Some prospects have been poorly utilized based on their talents. Diaz is a good example of that. Had he been developed as a first baseman where he is better suited we may not have needed to sign Abreu in free agency this off season. Instead, by trying to make a catcher out of him (something he seems opposed to and is not particularly good at) money and time have been wasted. As a result first base is blocked, DH is blocked and we have no place to put a great bat. It is too early to tell how the 22 draft will work out but my initial reaction was not hopeful. Fortunately the team is in good shape at the major league level for the next couple of years as you said, but in the words of one of my generations greatest philosophers "The future is uncertain and the end is always near."
     
  13. BlindHog

    BlindHog Member

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    Some 2023 likely graduating prospects.
    Hunter Brown, SP
    Pedro Leon, OF
    Korey Lee, Catcher
    Yainer Diaz, 1st base/DH
    Justin Dirden, OF
    Forrest Whitley, SP
    That is more than will probably be needed and there are another handful that are potential but less likely.
     
  14. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    I see Corey Julks more likely than Dirden in 2023, though I expect Dirden to be much more likely to have an impactful MLB career.

    The Astros will also need many more than 2 pitchers graduate throughout the season. Murray, Dubin, and France are my choices.

    Due to 40 man and freak issues stealing playing time the past 3 seasons, Leon may be in AAA all season.
     
  15. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    This is an excellent point. A farm system ranked in the bottom third of the league should not be producing rookie of the year candidates every single year. Had guys like Garcia and Pena been rated accurately the Astros farm would be ranked at least in the middle of the pack the last 3 years. We will see if guys like Brown and Diaz and others end up continuing that.
     
  16. Kemahkeith

    Kemahkeith Member
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    We seem to excel with international signings, do they not factor in immediately? I guess it's tought to fully evaluate a 16 year old.
     
  17. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    More or less yes, after the ink has dried on the contract. I have noticed that the Astros IFAs show up in the Astros Top 30 Prospects list shortly after signing.

    I suspect that the third party orgs have in depth evals on all of the top IFAs (and when they don't they probably ask around or just make some **** up ;) )
     
  18. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Commenting further on this. The Astros farm ranking tanked entering 2020 after Tucker and Alvarez had graduated coupled with Whitley’s stock imploding (and of course no other prospects breaking out). In the 3 seasons since, they graduated 4 guys who put up at least 1 2+ fwar season (Javier, Garcia, Pena, and McCormick) along with Meyers and Abreu, both of whom have been significant contributors. All 6 of those guys, along with Martinez, Lee, and Hensley (not to mention Hunter Brown) project to make their opening day roster. They’ve also been able to use their farm system during that time to continue to make deadline trades to improve their roster (Montero/Graveman, Garcia, Mancini, Vazquez). So somehow one of the 5 worst farms in baseball contributed 4 of the top 16 contributing players on a World Series team along with the resources to trade for another 2 complementary players, and projects to have contributed 10 of the 26 players on the 2023 opening day roster.

    The more I analyze it, the more it seems clear to me that ranking the Astros near the bottom of the league the last 3 seasons was hogwash and a big miss by the prospecting industry. That’s no guarantee that the current rankings are too low, but that’s what my money is on.
     
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  19. BlindHog

    BlindHog Member

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    Keith Law put out his top prospect list today. He has outfielder Luis Baez listed as a SS, am I missing something? It doesn't look like he spent much time on it.
     
  20. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    The Angels have an MVP candidate every year. Just like bad teams still win 60% as many games as great teams do, bad farms still produce talent.

    Pena, Javier, Urquidy, Garcia, Brown, and Abreu all were rated at least as high as a FV45 at one point by FanGraphs. Meyers and McCormick are the big misses of guys that have/will produce as starters. There have been quite a few FV45 guys that appear to be busts over the last 3 years. The Astros aren't rated low because they don't develop talent or are not perceived to be great at developing talent.

    The Astros were/are rated low not because Pena, Javier, Urquidy, Garcia, Brown, and Abreu weren't perceived to be good or great prospects, they were rated low because the guys added to the system to replace them were not perceived to be as good as them. Leon, Diaz, and Gilbert are the only guys I can think (sorry if I missed one or 2 guys) of that FanGraphs has had a FV45 or above that has been added after Luhnow left.
     
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