People tend to forget the arbitration years. Framber Arbitration estimates - 3 years $35.2M Field Value esimate - 3 years $103.9M Field Value AAV estimate - 1 year $34.6M 6 year extension - $139.1M Extension AAV - $23.1M Javier Arbitration estimates - 3 years $19.8M Field Value esimate - 3 years $70.7M Field Value AAV estimate - 1 year $23.6M 6 year extension - $94.3M Extension AAV - $15.7M Tucker Arbitration estimates - 3 years $28.0M Field Value esimate - 3 years $110.7M Field Value AAV estimate - 1 year $36.9M 6 year extension - $138.7M Extension AAV - $26.1M Now you can argue both the estimates for arbitration and the field value may be high or low, but the effect of including Arbitration years has a definite effect on the extension AAV. My personal opinion are both are generally a little low, but Javier is a particularly low Field Value estimate. I suspect the estimates were based on entering the 2022 season and do not reflect changes based on the 2022 season or the inflationary off season FA market following the 2022 season. AAV Field Value estimate is the equivalent of FA Value AAV.
I like extensions covering arbitration years as well as FA years because of the CBT and I like keeping players around for value. Players and agents want to recover value from the discounted Arbitration years, but that will only happen when arbitration awards approach FA Value and it appears FA values will maintain their commanding lead.
Kyle Tucker proposed extension: Arbitration estimate: $28M Total value, 2022-2025: $32M New years - 2026 and 2027 (age 29 and 30 seasons). Salary - $39M and $39M Total - 5yr/$110 ($22M AAV) He would hit the open market after his age 30 season, same as Aaron Judge. From his perspective, he is set for 5 years on a good team that should hopefully remain competitive for the entire duration. From the Astros perspective, the luxury tax number is a bargain towards the end of the deal. Should he sign it, he'd be paid $39M in each of the last two years while only counting only $22M against the luxury tax number (big help for CBT purposes). This year, it would take up about $16M in CBT space (using $6M as an Arb 1 estimate), but if we are going to have open CBT space, it is worth it, should he accept. Alternatively, you could add one more year, and up the salary for the new years to $40M - this would mean the total value is 6yr/$152M (AAV goes up to 30.4). It beats Altuve's extension (by $1M) for largest total value contract in Astros history, if that's something material to his decision to accept.
Just checking your math: Tucker Had to round up a little from your numbers. Arbitration estimates - 3 years $36.0M ($28M) Field Value estimate - 3 years $120.0M ($110.7M) Field Value AAV estimate - 1 year $40.0M ($36.9M) 6 year extension - $156.0M ($138.7M) [Exceeds Altuve Deal] Extension AAV - $26.0M ($23.1M (corrected from $26.1M for MY math error)).
Good call. Also, after watching that video, the fan in me wants Correa to come home. Obviously don't have the medicals in front of me, but his defense is so clutch. That cannon of an arm is impressive. Logically, I am totally fine with him chasing the biggest contract he can get. But if we could sign him for a 3-5 year deal, at a high AAV, why not? Either way, dude is a consistent winner, gave it his all for us when he was an Astro, and got on national tv and defended the team, in one of my favorite sports clips of all time. Wish him the best, I'll be a fan any time he isn't playing us.
I think that’s fair and reasonable value for a Tucker extension. I agree with the logic. I also don’t think there’s the slightest chance he would sign it. I think you’d have to offer 10/250 or something like that and even there he’d likely say pass. I think they let him get too close to FA and he’s now essentially unsignable.
That’s probably the number it would take to get it done. I don’t see any value for the Astros at that number. I’d have to pass if I was Houston.
At that point it is no longer about value. It's about continuity. The team has been very consistent in the philosophy that moving on from stars once they get expensive is better than keeping them as lifelong Astros. At some point that will end the window. But it will end anyway. Which is better ending from aging fan favorites who are no longer good or from stars moving on and no longer being able to replace them with equivalent talent. The farm is not near what it was 4 years ago but it would be unrealistic to expect it to be. Tucker will likely be gone in 3 years and he, like Correa, does not look to have interest in an extension. Sad as a fan but that's life. In fact, in 3 years Altuve, Bregman, Jose Abreu, Framber, Javier, Urquidy, the entire bullpen, and Tucker are all currently set for free agency. There are not any top 50 potential superstar talents to replace any of them. Winning has prevented the Correa, Bregman, and Tuckers entering the system. Replacing Evan Gattis with Yordan Alvarez, Josh Reddick with Kyke Tucker, etc kept the window wide open. There is 3 years to get/develop prospects to replace the current Astros but they are starting as 50 rated prospects not 60 rated prospects I see the window ending in 4-5 years unless the talent in the minors can be reestablished. Or 6-7 years if several of the mid 20s arbitration eligible stars sign extensions.
There are two main ways to go about this... 1) Crane sees this window closing in a few years before blowing it up and retooling and decides to go all in at the trade deadline and next year to win more. 2) With no studs in our farm system now to replace the current stars, Crane ponies up for our current players to extend to the end of the decade. I'm afraid it may be 3) Do nothing, let stars walk in a few years and hope they even get back to the World Series before blowing it up and losing 3 to 4 years in a row again
Honestly, he shouldn't, with the shift gone, he's set to have a monster season. His value is likely lower now than it'll be any time soon.
Yeah, I am under the strong impression that he is dead set on reaching FA, which I can understand. Of course, the post specifically said this was just a hypothetical. If there was one guy who I would give a long-term deal to and who I think Crane should break his "no deals more than 5 years" custom for, it would be Tucker.
I think it is unsustainable to just let everybody walk and rely on the farm to replenish itself and produce replacements for everybody. Prospects are just prospects, and even many high-ranked prospects bust. The haters keep waiting for us to decline due to players leaving, and while we've done a good job replacing the production of the ones who leave, sooner or later, it is almost certainly going to catch up to us. The guys promoted from AAA can't all be Penas or even McCormicks.
I feel like most folks are undervaluing the Abreu acquisition and Brantley retention. I also feel like most folks are underestimating the impact of the JV loss as well.
Yep. 1 and 2 are both great with me, while 3 will suck. Feels like 3 is playing out right now but I might be wrong and overly in my feels.
