I’m guessing that Barnhart is almost entirely about protecting Maldonado and the pitching staff. Don’t think there’s much argument to be had about his bat.
I think he should be on a DH only platoon during the year and play when a Yordan is sitting or in LF. That would probably be about 100 or 110 times I’d think. Should be way more RHP and little LHP.
For his career he’s a 107 OPS+ against RHP and Maldy is a 110 ish against LHP. Combined OPS should be about 700 if they hit career norms against off handed pitchers in a strict platoon. No idea if they would do a strict platoon (they should) but that would get every spot in the lineup taken care of.
There is no way we aren't adding that C and another OFer bat . Roger's and Chaffin would be just cheating at that point
Same. I think Diaz has very nice talent at the plate... smooth swing with power and good exit velocity. 16 homeruns in 48 games in AAA last season.
Assuming no trades take place… 1-9 are now locked. Hensley anf Dubon are near-locks. Meyers and Yainer/Lee are the only realistic upgrades.
I go with career numbers over yearly numbers as a bigger sample size but yeah- it’s going the wrong direction there.
To be clear I’m assuming that for Brantley and assuming he only plays DH at 110 or 120 games when Yordan sits or is in LF.
Only way I see a Yuli return is if we really impress upon Diaz that he needs to make the ML roster as a C and we roll with Lee as the primary backup C and until Diaz forces the issue ^^ is 28 players, so I’m assuming Taylor and JJ are the first axed
I still think the ultimate plan is to trade for centerfield. The target will be an elite centerfielder defensively so as to offset some loss of defense with the shift. I could see a .240 hitter with 20 home run pop and great defense. Think a slightly better Marisnick. Chas and Brantley platoon in left. Brantley at DH and McCormick in left with Yordan flipping left/dh. It gets Yordan in left about the amount they say they want to because Brantley will start against righties. I could see a minimum type deal at catcher as insurance. There's no need to spend a lot of resources there unless we're getting a top 5 catcher. Better to dedicate some ABs to Lee and see if he can be average or better on the cheap for 2024 on... that savings in salary can go to extensions.
There’s a bit of a dynamic where if you bring in a pitcher, reliever or starter, someone has to be traded. Less extreme if it’s a position player, but if you bring in another outfielder, that gives you 6-7 guys in the OF, plus you have Leon down in the minors. Feels like signing either a pitcher or outfielder will point to a trade.
There’s 24M left. That could pay for 5 year extensions for Javier, Framber and Urquidy. Javier- 5/75 would jump him 12M, Framber 5/85 would jump him 9M and Urquidy 5/40 would jump him 5M this year over what they’d expect to make in Arbitration. That would put you right at the tax line and solidify your rotation through 2027. No room then to do any more deals, but if you could get those guys to do those deals you should. Buys out 2 years of FA for all of them. Gives them all enough money to be set for life. None of them have made any real money yet as they all had small bonuses and have made minimum (other than Framber who made 3M last year).
Yeah you can because he’s a plus framer and 2x gg winner and that’s the most important thing teams should value from a catcher. Astros lineup can blow any other lineup out of the water (most 2x over) so there isn’t much concern for a nine hole’s hitter production offensively even though his numbers say he’ll benefit greatly without the shift (which is the norm for most LH hitters)
I would 100% support that. Keeping the pitching locked in a lower rates would give you a lot more flexibility on the lineup side as guys like Altuve, Bregman and Tucker potentially leave.
Dubon is a lock. Too versatile, Dusty likes him too much, and they’ve already tendered him. The only non-locks are: Lee: projects to be an above average defender and poor hitter (wRC+ 85). Only projected for 160 pa but an upgrade would likely pick up Diaz’s projected 72 pa along with possibly eating into Maldy’s projected 429 pa. Meyers: projects for average CF defense and an average bat (wRC+ 99), projected for 297-329 pa. Hensley: projected for average utility defense and an average bat (wRC+ 102) over 185-196 pa. An upgrade would likely also pick up most of the ~110 pa projected across Y Diaz, Matijevic, Leon, Bannon, and Machado. Brown(/Urquidy): Brown projects for 3.41 era over 100 ip across starting and relieving. I’ll note here that while it seems reasonable to assume Urquidy is a lock for the roster, he may not be, even if he isn’t traded. On paper Brown would project to be a much better pitcher than Urquidy, and Urquidy does not project well to the bullpen. Also, Urquidy still can be optioned to the minors. Still, I assume that Urquidy will make the roster as either the 5th or 6th SP. but if we are looking for potential places to upgrade, Urquidy might be the best spot, given he projects to a 4.60 era over 157 innings; that upgrade may be Brown, but it could also be an outside addition. Urquidy is simply not good enough to be considered a lock on a roster as deep as Houston’s. And Brown, while carrying solid projections, is still almost completely unproven. There is a reasonable spot for a good starting pitcher, especially one acquired after a trade that sends out Urquidy and/or Brown. 13th pitcher (likely Martinez or Taylor): there are 382 innings projected across the 13th-24th pitchers, with none of those guys carrying all that impressive performance projections. I am assuming Maton is a lock for the roster after being tendered, but it’s reasonable to question that. Regardless, there is certainly room to add another established reliever. In analyzing the market I don’t see a clear path for replacing Hensley or Meyers; they both project to be good players in their role, there aren’t any free agents that fit as replacements, and any trade to acquire their replacement seems like it would have come together already. There’s been enough smoke around adding a catcher that I think it is likely, although the catchers remaining in free agency don’t seem to be meaningful upgrades over Lee. Danny Jansen makes a lot of sense to me but the rumors have been quiet on that front. It looks like they may add a fringey guy like Barnhart or Alfaro. That is fine but the main value in that move is providing another layer of depth and preserving Lee’s service time, not necessarily getting better performance from that roster spot. There are a few interesting free agent pitchers who would probably be better than Urquidy and less risky than Brown. But I only think that move makes sense if it follows a trade involving Urquidy and/or Brown. There are a lot of relievers that I think can improve Houston’s bullpen. The Astros have a pretty strong track record in this arena. I do expect them to add another reliever, I just have no idea what type/caliber it will be. This is the clearest path to remaining meaningful upgrades via free agency. They can sign a good RP and all it means is that Martinez and/or Taylor will start the season in the minors. Outside of signing a fringey backup catcher and adding a reliever, any further meaningful upgrades will almost certainly involve a significant trade.
