I think this is true unfortunately we are down to bargain bin hunting and trades. Trades could be impactful. Brantley would be a nice bat to re-add.
Injuries will happen. Some guys will regress. Others will take a leap forward. They’re likely going to have a guy make a start (or many starts) that isn’t on the 26 man roster right now. There is a lot of recency bias and taking things for granted in regards to this pitching staff. They’re still very very good… but last year doesn’t happen every season.
Id rather wait because you don’t know who could emerge and what team may want to offload a qualify player for cheap. Signing someone right now isnt *free*. It doesn’t cost you prospects, but it limits the deals you can look at later into the season. Id rather wait and see if a player better than Benintendi or Conforto is available via trade, or if someone develops in the minors
Except it's not that simple. Spending a bunch of money on long term deals might help the team this year by 0.5%, but it also means money that's not available to spend later. So it might also reduce the 2024 chances of winning a title by 1%. Is that a net positive? The Astros could have done the same spending sprees in 2018 or 2019 and potentially not be in a position to have signed JV last year or extend Yordan or whatnot. The point of wanting money spent smartly is because it's in the interests of the team, not just the owner.
Fair point about long term deals, but that’s not really what I’m focused on. Benintiendi is a tough call for me. To your point, he would be multiple years and could hurt us down the road. A Platoon C like Narvaez is an easy call because it is a cheap short term deal. To me, that’s better than assuming Korey Lee can handle part time duty. Likewise, a platoon LH Bat in the outfield would be useful and not too expensive. Perhaps management sees Brantley as that guy. That’s fine, but I worry that Brantley might not be healthy enough to be the guy. Depending on the dollars, I’d like to see LHP Taylor Rogers added to the pen. He has done leverage work, and maybe that frees up the Astros to try to stretch out Abreu. Talent gives us options. I wouldn’t mind adding Kluber to what we have. I am not confident in LMJs ability to stay healthy, and Javier and Brown are not 180 inning horses.
Let's take a look back at recent years. History tells us some move will happen next month. Here are the past 5 offseasons: 2018: Did not make the Gerrit Cole trade until January 13. It is barely December 13 today. 2019: Did not sign Wade Miley until January 31. Ended up being a solid signing as he was excellent until late August. Despite collapsing down the stretch, he really glued together a rotation that badly lacked depth for much of the way. 2020: I don't think we did anything in January this offseason. Extended Joe Smith and Martin Maldonado in December. 2021: Did not re-sign Brantley until January 20; Did not sign Odorizzi until March 8. 2022: The lockout drastically changed the way this offseason looked, with transactions essentially standing still for about 3 months. But we did sign Niko Goodrum in March. Didn't end up being a major contributor but he was on the 26-man for a good while and on the 40-man for most of the season. Unless Benintendi or Conforto sign, at this point, it looks like we'll wait and see who is still out there for a bargain. Once most teams have filled their needs, then it becomes time for the players to just take what's offered because they want to play, and knowing the competition is thin they are more likely to accept that the bidding war is practically over. That's exactly how I'd describe the Wade Miley deal, which was $4.5M (about $7-8M today when factoring both revenue and inflation). Someone like Kluber, Cueto, Wacha, even Lyles can be our Miley (veteran inning-eating starter) if we want to add one.
Only 2 years team control is the issue here. Unless you could sign him to an extension, then I'd say no. But an .850+ OPS last season (albeit in limited ABs) is certainly intriguing. He obviously would love a starting job somewhere and he's prepared to take that next step.
I'm on the Wacha train. I think he's regained his form that made him one of the great young pitchers coming up several years ago.
