Believe it or not, Pena is better in the field than Correa. That is why they let Correa go. They knew what they had despite questionable offense. Pena got a gold glove even with lots of errors. He makes plays and gets to balls, other shortstops can't get to including Correa.
I know the numbers say that, I’m just having a hard time buying. The guys who came up with them say they can be off in a sample size of 1 year and really work better off 3 years. I need to see it again for another year before I completely buy it.
I wouldn’t mind Adam Frazier as a 13th position player. Also I guess the stros players weren’t very upset about Musgrove’s comments regarding his 2017 WS.
How does the recent Luis Castillo extension affect Framber? He is 1 year older but also had 1 arb year left and he got 5 years $108M. How much are we going to pay these guys to buy out the remaining arb years? We might pay $25-30M in the FA years but the arb years will probably average out to like $15-17M over 3 years. If that was the case, let's say $10M, $15M, $20M, $25M, $25M, $25M over 6 years that's $120M. Maybe there's a premium to buy out his FA years applied to the arbitration years and it's $55M over that timeframe instead of $45M so $130M over 6.
Frazier would be a decent budget get... Last year was definitely an off year for him, and he could be due a bounce back. And, yes... I think people on the board make way more of an issue about things that other players said about the scandal. I'm pretty sure behind the scenes and in the locker room none of that means much of anything.
I have not looked up the stats ( which can be picked and chosen to prove whatever your opinion is anyway) My eyes tell me that: Correa is much more sure handed, consistent, and has the better arm. He makes all the plays he should and more than a man his size should and rarely makes an error. Pena has incredible reaction and range. That with natural instincts help him get to many more balls in play. His glove is excellent but his arm is only good. He will make errors on occassion and I expect without Yuli at 1B he may end up a few more than last year. The Astros did not think Pena was better than Correa in ANY aspect except probably running speed. They felt he was MLB ready and would be an acceptable replacement when Correa's contract situation made it impossible to resign him and stay the course in team spending philosophy. But that's different than Pena being better and the team knowing he was better.
They tend to do a good job on most MLB players. I'd say pitchers who's xERAs are consistently lower than their FIPs are probably undervalued a little (e.g., Javier, Urquidy). Also, upper level minor leaguers, rookies values, and second year players are all over the place. For instance, if Brown starts in the 5 first turns through the rotation, his value likely doubles for the sole reason that projections don't know if he's a starter or a reliever going forward. I'm sure there are other little quirks involving players on other teams that I don't see. I think someone like Chas is going to have a lot of people not like BTVs. Objectively, putting up average value on peanuts for a salary over 4 years adds up to a decent chunk of surplus value. A lot of people don't like that better players that are paid for being better players don't have more surplus value. Just because a player has 0 trade value, does not mean a team will give away a player. Teams contending generally don't give away players that produce value, but are paid approporiately. Bad teams don't generally give away good players with 0 surplus value either. They will trade those players, pay some cash, and get prospects worth the amount of cash they are paying. There has to be a driver for teams to want to trade players (want future value, need a pitcher now). Trade value just explains how much approximately both sides need to give up when there is a driver on both sides of a deal. On a driver, while Chas is listed as having a lot of surplus value if he was traded, is there a driver for another to want him more than the Astros want to keep him? If the A's were a little better, he would be someone they probably like (low cost, provides some value), but probably doesn't fit their timeline now.
Correa was there with them as well… since he made the most money last year, he was probably at the concessions buying the next round (or he’s taking the picture).
True, but he also hit significantly worse at a much older age. Even Julio Lugo significantly out hit him as a rookie at the same age. Granted night and day on defense... Just pointing out recency bias... he didn't even have a .300 ob%.
I'm fine with this: 2B Altuve LF/DH Brantley/McCormick 3B Bregman LF/DH Alvarez 1B Abreu RF Tucker SS Pena CF Varsho C Vazquez Bench Hensley Dubon Gurriel Maldonado Brantley/McCormick Mccullers Valdez Javier Garcia Cueto Urquidy Pressly Montero Abreu Stanek Brown Neris AAA Depth Meyers Lee Diaz Martinez Maton Bielak I think the Cueto/Varsho/Vasquez/Gurriel additions fit under the tax. I suspect Perez and a couple low level guys are enough for Varsho who is part arbitration salary dump and part freeing up playing time. Perez coud step in right away as possible 3B for them.
The amount of times guys tagged up and took 3rd on a routine fly ball to Meyers in CF was absurd. Dude could barely get it in to 2nd…
2? These are the only 2 flyballs I could find with a runner at 2B that advanced with Meyers in CF. Granted, the throws were not good. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=163969a4-1f45-49e6-9171-61e2afbec93a https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=0996f033-8cde-49be-a563-a380922c1bf5
Meyers' injury in the 2021 playoffs was obviously serious and definitely affected his 2022 performance. Whether he can get all the way back to full health AND continue to develop offensively is one of the underrated storylines for the 2023 Astros. The rhetoric of Crane and other decision makers makes me think that they don't expect him to be a key player. But in mid 2021 he looked the part of a 3 win CF which is an extremely valuable piece. His arm was average to slightly above average before the injury, so if he doesn't regain all of his arm strength it will have a big impact on his defensive value. IF he's not going to be the everyday CF I'd almost rather him be sent down so he can play everyday in AAA and get his stock back up; at least then he still could have big trade value even if the Astros don't want him.
I agree with you about the eye test. I too screamed at my TV every time a runner tagged up on a routine fly to Jake. BUT Arm: Jake 84.1, max 89.4 ( 2021) 84.9, max 89.5 Chas 84.6, max 89.5 Dubon 89.0, max 96.1 Chas was very marginally better than Jake in 2022, who was very marginally better than him in 2021. Both are below average. FYI: Dubon is above average. fielding: Jake was successful in 93% vs expected 88% for +5% and 7 outs above average. Chas was successful in 93% vs expected 88% for +4% ( must be rounding?) and 7 outs above average. Dubon was successful 87% vs expected 88% for -1% and 0 outs above average. reaction Jake -0.1 , Chas +0.7 , Dubon +0.2 burst Jake +1.7 , Chas +1.5 , Dubon +0.8 Route Jake +0.7 , Chas +0.4 , Dubon -0.1 feet covered Jake : 37.2 = +2.3 Chas : 36.4.= +2.6 Dubon : 35.1 = +0.8 What I can say is the baseball savant does verify Jake's rag arm but not poor defense, or that Chas is better.
