Is Willson Contreras Worth Giving up the 2nd Round Pick?

Yeah that's not happening.

 

I said no bc we don't need him as a lf/dh. Our offense is going to be awesome as is and you can get a cheaper lf like brantley who will be close to contreras numbers at sig lesser cost/years and who knows maybe this year is the year we get the next superstar with the 2nd round pick

 

If you don't want Contreras, fine, but stop reducing his offensive ability

He had an OPS+ of 128 last season (career 115, Brantley is 117). That's good production for any position

Theoretically, his stats will increase with less wear and tear of playing catcher

Plus he can still catch 60-80 games while platooning with Maldy

 

Exactly he's essentially Michael Brantley at the plate, value wise. Nothing wrong with that, until you get to 4 years $85 million.

He won't come close to 60-80 game range at catcher, over Dusty's dead body.

And you have no clue what he's going to look like in the field playing significant time in LF. If someone says they know he's going to be just fine, they are lying to themselves.

A 162 game average of 70 R/80 RBI (again think Michael Brantley) and a .256 BA?

And he's going to bat 7th?

None of this adds up to $21 million. None of it.

Btw, if we sign him I'm definitely not gonna feel bad about it. Much to the contrary.

 

Seems like he would cost more and need a longer deal than Conforto, Bellinger or Brantley. That trio it’s likely a 1-2 year deal.

I’d love to have him.

 

But wouldn't we like a longer term solution in left field? I would. I would be ecstatic if we signed him to 4 years. He's 28. This is his absolute prime years coming up.

 

Heck yeah if Crane wants to really splurge. I wanted him at the deadline and thought he’d be the perfect Brantley replacement.

I’m just trying to be conservative after spending on Abreu and Contreras but I’d rather have Benentendi over the other guys I mentioned if Crane would do it.

 

If they sign Benintendi I won't cry about it but the reason I don't expect it is because they have a lot of outfielders coming up the pipeline. Gilbert, Leon, Barber, Melton, and Dirden are all within our top 11 prospects on mlb.com plus Logan Cerny, Luis Baez, Kenni Gomez, Tyler Whitaker, Quincy Hamilton, Zach Daniels, and Corey Julks are all ranked in the 21-30 range. Outfield is probably the deepest part of our farm system right now and some guys could be knocking on the MLB door next season. That's why I would prefer a shorter contract over what Benintendi will get. Conforto or Brantley make more sense to me if healthy. It also lines up better with extending Tucker, Framber, Javier, etc.

 

Vazquez got 35 GP In the regular season with Houston. I'm sure some of those were PHing but he prob got 30 starts, in less than half a season

60-80 games from Contreras @ catcher is very doable

One thing Dusty fought against management for was Maldy catching JV, Valdez, and McCullers. One of those guys is likely gone

Nobody is sure what Willson will look like in LF, but MMP is very generous there

Chances are his OPS+ increases 10 points with the limited wear and tear of playing catcher and the DH option

 

A 36 year old coming off shoulder surgery is not a lock to be the player he has been. Brantley is no more than a huge question mark on whether he can even play, much less play effectively. Crane has said March and I think that's optimistic unless he shows signs he cannot come back.

I would think Bagwell when he wanted one more season, but couldn't throw the ball to the pitcher. He was given the opportunity out of respect for his career and person, but he just couldn't do it. Or just look at Meyer's struggles last season coming off shoulder surgery as a younger man. It's not always a smooth return, even if they do eventually return.

Now don't get me wrong. I'm very much pulling for him to make a full recovery. But you cannot wish away the real possibilities. And one thing about athletes generally, they think there is no obstacle they cannot overcome.

Now another question regarding Contreras' cost is the international pool money. With our success there, the international pool penalty might be more onerous than the 2nd pick (which is almost a third pick coming off a WS.)

 

Just remember, Maldy did not catch the WS no hitter. That was the other guy who couldn't get much playing time.

 

Yes

I wish posters would stop talking about him playing LF. He will catch 60, DH 60 and play 20 games in LF. The thing is Maldy will be retiring after next year and you will have Contreras for 3 more years as your regular catcher. You just don't want him catching more than 100-110 games a year.

Unless Crane gets a fair deal in FA early, I think he waits to see if Uncle Mike is healthy in March. If he's not I think he let's the young guys in AAA play LF and makes a deadline deal if they don't work out.

If Uncle Mike isn't healthy and the young guys fail, I could also see Contreras playing 30 games in LF and Hensley playing 50 games in LF before a deal is made for a vet LF at the deadline. Kinda like what Click did with the Mancini deal at the deadline last year.

 

Do you think rhey would have had a no hitter if maldy was the catcher?
Point is yes some nights the pitcher is on and doesn't matter who catches him but the days they are not or come into the game struggling, that's when you need him. Verlander said he just let Maldy call the pitches so he can focus on throwing, not sure he does that with the other guy.

 

Contreras has his best value as a Catcher. The less he plays there the lower his value. It's just a positional value thing. He has some value as DH based purely on his hitting, though DH positional value is the lowest.

Outside that (like LF) his hitting might be offset by under performance in the field. Assuming we have Meyers or a Prospect to back up McCormick, I would not foresee any starts in LF for Contreras. It's too easy to move the guy on the bench to LF or in Meyer's case, move McCormick to LF and insert Meyers in CF for Yordan rest days.

We would need a third catcher when Contreras plays DH, so Y Diaz or Lee would probably have more value than Dubon on the bench.

 

This brings up an interesting possibility. If JV moves to LA and he wants Maldy, perhaps a trade for a position of need or at least help at CF/DH along with adding Contrares as C1 or even checking back with Vasquez as C1 would be a possibility.

 

Judging Brantley's career track record, he could enter the season with full health and there's still a 45% chance he misses 2+ months due to injury

If he signs for 2/20-ish, I wouldn't be mad though. We should actively orchestrate a 120 GP season by giving him more days off and more DH

 

Somebody posted Contreras has higher overall numbers than Tucker put up last year. I'll take that. I'm thinking Diaz as a 3rd catcher/1B wouldn't be a bad thing. Crane could also sign a cheap guy like Alfaro to be the 3rd catcher. You don't pass on a bat like Contreras because you have to carry a 3rd catcher. Also I believe Hensley could Catch in an emergency if Contreras was the DH

 

I think I’d prefer Vazquez for probably half the AAV or less, fewer years, and no draft pick or international bonus pool hit.

Already know how he fits with pitchers and locker room too…

 

It's still risky unless it is a split contract whose MLB portion only kicks in if he makes the MLB team out of Spring Training. I'm not sure of the current status of that type of contract is.

If he is recovered, I'd pencil him in at DH in the 7 hole after Abreu in a heartbeat. If not?

 

Mainly left field for Contreras? He has started 24 games in his career in left field and 21 of those came in 2016.