I love me some Bagwell but to say the Astros went "too far into analytics" I think is an ignorant thing to say. Luhnow, the architect of this Astros Dynasty, the best Astros era in 60 years, was all about the analytics and reshaped the baseball world. You can always have baseball men around who understand the game -- but building up an analytics department is how you build dynasties that are sustainable. You need both but don't reduce the analytics side of things - you can't have enough -- and feel free to go against it from time to time if your "gut" tells you to
One thing I really like is that despite having a veteran roster, the years of control are staggered very nicely. Here’s who will reach free agency by year: 2023 (3): Maldonado, Maton, Stanek 2024 (4): Altuve, Bregman, Neris, Pressly 2025 (6): Tucker, Abreu, Javier, Valdez, Urquidy, Montero 2026 (5): McCormick, Dubon, McCullers, Garcia, Abreu 2027 (2): Meyers, Pena
Listening to these Bagwell clips, I bet James Click is somewhere very happy he did not return. No, I’m not saying he was right, or Bagwell was right. But it points to the significant number of different voices in the decision making process, and if I’m click, I just don’t want to work like that. Right or wrong, I want more power and autonomy to shape the team my way. Now, my own view is that Jim Crane better be as good as we think he is when it comes to the next hire. It is fine to have Bagwells advice and overlay, but the foundation front office decisions has to be superior advanced analytics. Period. Full stop. It needs to be a smart guy who has the people skills to manage the many voices, and to earn Cranes trust. I’m glad Crane is taking his time to hire a GM. I keep hoping that maybe, just maybe Luhnow becomes a possible option with more passage of time. And if not him, then someone in his mold.
I agree with your sentiment and totally agree the final decision maker (I.e. GM) needs to be extremely knowledgeable about analytics and rely on them heavily. That said, I do think that culture is an extremely important factor and not something that analytics has figured out, so if Bagwell has a special skill for determine how guys will impact the Astros winning culture then I’m all for him having an influential voice. That said, I don’t really like his dismissive rhetoric when talking about analytics.
I’m going to state the obvious here, but isn’t the key to extending the window is hitting on Leon, Hunter Brown and/or Jake Meyers? I mean, what else really matters in the grand scheme of things? Hitting on Peña, Framber, Javier, Garcia And Urquidi have bought us several additional years of contention. if Hunter Brown develops into a legit No 1 or 2 SP, it completely changes the trajectory of the franchise. Or if Luis Garcia takes a step forward and becomes a solid No2 Sp, that changes the franchise. If Leon or Meyers develop into starting caliber MLBers, say 80 percent of what Kyle Tucker is, that changes the franchise. Or some other arm, like Enoli Paredes, becomes the next Bryan Abreu, I’m not saying that it doesn’t matter if we save some $$ if Hensley can replace Aledmys Diaz on the cheap. It’s good, but that doesn’t really impact winning or financial flexibility that much. if we keep pumping out Jeremy Penas and Cristian Javier’s at a rate that matches the decline from our core stars, we remain at the top of the MLB food chain.
I don't like Bagwell having a say in any of this. He has no qualifications here. This dynasty was built on the numbers and being smart. Feeling your way to success is not an ideal avenue to take.
We got 2 more seasons before Crane really needs to make some hard decisions. If we resign Altuve, Bregman and Pressly, there is no way we will be able to keep Tucker, Javier, and Valdez. If Brown and Diaz work out, we may be able to extend our window by a little bit if we can find a Bregman replacement.
totally agree. And yes, “dismissive” is exactly the right word and it is what gives me great pause when hearing his comments. Bagwell’s voice can be a tempering one, but absolutely cannot be a lead voice in building the team. I do agree culture matters, but the Astros culture is a product of Altuve’s humility, Bregs being a gym rat, and the very Latin America friendly clubhouse, which I think is a gigantic advantage. Taking Jose Abreu as an example, I don’t know that it takes special insight to see that he is a perfect fit culturally and in the lineup. If I’m Jim Crane and Bagwell says X and Y are human elements that contribute to winning, I would ask him to explain it or prove it anecdotally. Or I would then ask my analytic staff to see if it is provable or quantifiable, as opposed to an instinctual observation from a former elite player.
If JV doesn't return, what's the move from a pitching standpoint? Do we stand pat hoping that Garcia and Urquidy take a step forward next year? Do we upgrade the backend by signing a FA and deal Urquidy for a bat? Do we add another bullpen arm?
I loved Bags as a player, but please keep he and Ausmus away from the front office past finding a new GM.
In the end, current players trust and relate to former players (especially HOF players) moreso than they trust or relate to front office executives or assistants who actually never played baseball. Bagwell has been steadfast that if he had the amount of information they have nowadays back when he played, he would have been a much better player… so he’s not anti-analytics. But there is a gap between the raw data and application/execution of what the data says to do that only those who actually play the game are able to best interpret. Sorta why Billy Beane was initially so chastised at his ability to adopt this mindset, despite being a former player, yet he was probably better able to relate to what the data was saying to do because he failed so spectacularly as a player.
