[OFFICIAL] 2022-2023 Power Rankings Thread

https://theathletic.com/3886988/2022/11/21/nba-power-rankings-week-6/

28. Houston Rockets (previously 28th) | 3-14 | -7.5 net rating

Weekly slate: Loss to Clippers, Win at Mavs, Loss to Pacers, Loss to Warriors

What are they thankful for? Alperen Şengün and Kenyon Martin Jr. have been really good. We’re still waiting on Jalen Green to get to the point he was in the second half of last season, and Kevin Porter Jr. has been inconsistent. But I love what we’re seeing from Şengün and Martin. You’d like some better shooting from Martin, but the dirty work he provides is exactly what you want out of a glue guy on any team. As for Şengün, the Rockets have given him more minutes and opportunities, and we’ve seen him benefit from it. Şengün’s rebounding is up, his scoring is up, and he’s automatic inside of 10 feet.

https://www.nba.com/news/power-rankings-2022-23-week-6

30. HOUSTON ROCKETS
Record: 3-14

OffRtg: 107.6 (27) DefRtg: 115.1 (28) NetRtg: -7.5 (28) Pace: 100.9 (10)

The Rockets got the Mavs without Luka Doncic on Wednesday, and they took advantage, picking up their third win of the season despite turning the ball over 23 times and scoring just 101 points on 98 possessions. It was the second time this season Houston held its opponent under a point per possession, and the Rockets didn’t just sit back and let the Mavs miss shots (though Dallas did shoot 5-for-25 on wide-open 3s). Their 19 blocks in that game are tied for the second most for any team in any game in the last 20 years. Eight different Rockets blocked a shot on Wednesday, with Kenyon Martin Jr.’s sensational stuff of Christian Wood being the highlight.

The Rockets played another ugly game against the Pacers (who rank eighth offensively and were 8-for-28 on wide-open 3s in Houston) on Friday. And two nights later, they erased an early, 18-point deficit and went down to the wire with the Warriors. The Rockets still haven’t won a game that wasn’t within five points in the last five minutes, but half of their 14 losses have been within five in the last five. They’ve scored just 41 points on 57 clutch possessions (a league-worst 72 per 100), having shot 1-for-14 on clutch 3-pointers.

But maybe we’re seeing some small signs of progress from the team that ranked last defensively last season (and by a healthy margin before the Blazers tanked hard). The opponents’ 3s went in the basket on Sunday, and the Rockets will face the Warriors again in less than two weeks. Their longest (non-All-Star) break of the season is Monday-Thursday, and their first of four meetings with the Thunder (the other three are all in February) is Saturday, when both teams will be playing the second game of a back-to-back.

Week 6: vs. ATL, vs. OKC

 

https://theathletic.com/3918306/2022/11/28/nba-power-rankings-week-7/

26. Houston Rockets (previously 28th) | 5-14 | -5.5 net rating

Weekly slate: Win over Hawks, Win over Thunder

Who is the new face? Jabari Smith Jr.

How’d they get him? Drafted with third pick this summer.

How’s that going? We’re seeing a better showing from Smith over the last three games, and it’s way too early to make a true ruling on the Rockets taking him third in the draft. He still projects to be a really good defender, and he shows flashes here and there. The shot making has been a massive struggle. He barely takes shots around the rim, and he’s only finishing half of them. For his size and athleticism, he should be making a much higher percentage. His jumper hasn’t traveled from Auburn, but his free-throw shooting offers up encouragement. The Rockets need to find him easy shots and build that scoring confidence. Some of it is on him, and some of it is the byproduct of the team being so young. They’re not setting him up for success yet, but he’ll get it together soon.

Grade the move now: C-


https://www.nba.com/news/power-rankings-2022-23-week-7

#28↑ HOUSTON ROCKETS
Record: 5-14

OffRtg: 108.7 (26) DefRtg: 114.2 (26) NetRtg: -5.5 (28) Pace: 101.3 (9)

The Rockets committed 47 turnovers over the weekend and have what would be the highest turnover rate (18.0 per 100 possessions) for any team in the last eight seasons (since The Process Sixers averaged 18.3 per 100 in 2014-15). But, despite the miscues, they have their first winning streak of the season, picking up wins at home over the Hawks and Thunder. Jalen Green led the way with 58 points over the two games and Alperen Sengun (who missed the first game) had a huge night (21 points, 19 rebounds, seven assists, three steals and two blocks) against Oklahoma City on Saturday. The Rockets lead the league by a wide margin in the percentage of their minutes (57%) that have come from rookies or second-year players, and they have two of the five second-year guys who’ve averaged at least 15 points per game.

But most important may be the improved play of rookie Jabari Smith Jr., who’s averaged 19.3 points and 9.7 rebounds over the last three games and made at least two 3-pointers in each of the last six. The Rockets ran their first play of the Atlanta game for a Smith corner 3, he had a pair of pull-up 3s vs. soft defense later in the night, and the biggest (and most impressive) play of the game may have been his offensive rebound and put-back in traffic with a little more than a minute to go. Those were the final two of the Rockets’ 37 second-chance points, the second most any team has had in a single game in the 27 seasons in which second-chance points have been tracked.

Smith also did some good things defensively, thwarting a Trae Young iso and deflecting an Aaron Holiday pass with active hands in the first quarter. (There were also a couple of occasions where he didn’t get to where he needed to be defensively.)

Though they just completed a four-game homestand, the Rockets have played 11 of their 19 games on the road. And they have a pretty tough, four-game road trip this week. They’ve yet to face the Nuggets, but their worst defensive game of the season came in Phoenix.

Week 7: @ DEN, @ DEN, @ PHX, @ GSW

 

https://theathletic.com/3943876/2022/12/05/nba-power-rankings-week-8/

28. Houston Rockets (Previously 26th) | 6-17 | -7.1 net rating

Weekly slate: Loss at Nuggets, Loss at Nuggets, Win at Suns, Loss at Warriors

First-quarter grade: C+

While the Rockets have the third-worst net rating in the NBA, we’ve seen a much better product over the last two and a half weeks. They started out 2-12, and seven of those 12 losses were by double digits. Since then, they’re 4-5 and only three of those five losses were by double digits. The Rockets’ young squad is getting a lot friskier out there, and we’re seeing some pretty competitive performances. They beat Phoenix this past week, and while the Suns are battered, they still went toe-to-toe with Booker down the stretch and won. Stephen Silas has these guys playing much more consistently throughout these past nine games, and their development path looks pretty solid. They’ll take their lumps. but the goal is to get better as the season goes on. They’re, at least, doing that lately.

Prediction update: Jalen Green averages at least 23.0 points per game. I feel pretty good about this one. Green isn’t averaging 23.0 points per game, but he is sitting at 21.3 per game. He’s only 28 total points on the season away from hitting that average. Not there, but very doable.


https://www.nba.com/news/power-rankings-2022-23-week-8

28. HOUSTON ROCKETS
Record: 6-17

OffRtg: 109.3 (26) DefRtg: 116.4 (28) NetRtg: -7.1 (28) Pace: 100.5 (14)

The Rockets rank 28th defensively and the last four games have been their worst defensive stretch of the season (126.9 points per 100 possessions), with the opponents (all top-seven offenses) shooting 47% from 3-point range. They lost their two games in Denver by a total of 36 points, and they never led at Golden State on Saturday. For the season, Houston’s starting lineup has allowed 125.8 points per 100, easily the worst mark among the 30 lineups that have played at least 100 minutes.

But the Rockets escaped with a win in Phoenix on Friday (ending the Suns’ six-game losing streak) when the Suns missed four shots in the last 20 seconds. The Rockets were outscored by 27 points from beyond the arc, but were a plus-20 in the restricted area (52-32) and a plus-20 at the free throw line (34-14).

Jalen Green shot 4-for-26 from 3-point range over the Rockets’ four games last week, he’s now shooting worse from beyond the arc (33.1%) than he did as a rookie (34.3%), and he’s a pretty brutal 17-for-60 (28%) from mid-range. But he’s finished a little better in the paint, he had 10 of those 52 restricted-area points in Phoenix, and he was also 12-for-16 from the line, making one of two to give the Rockets the lead before that wild sequence on the other end of the floor.

The Rockets have played 15 of their 23 games on the road, and they’ll be in San Antonio on Thursday for their first meeting with the Spurs. But their longest homestand of the season (seven games over 13 days) begins Sunday with a visit from the Bucks. They’ve won their last two games at the Toyota Center.

Week 8: vs. PHI, @ SAS, vs. MIL

 

https://theathletic.com/3970506/2022/12/12/nba-power-rankings-week-9/

27. Houston Rockets (Previously 28th) | 8-18 | -6.1 Net Rating
Weekly Slate: Win over Sixers, Loss at Spurs, Win over Bucks

1st Q: -14.6 net rating | Ranked 28th
2nd Q: -2.3 net rating | Ranked 17th
3rd Q: -5.8 net rating | Ranked 24th
4th Q: -3.2 net rating | Ranked 23rd
Clutch: +11.4 net rating | Ranked 9th | 14 games (7-7)

Takeaway: Much like Orlando, the Rockets look a lot more competent lately, a stark contrast to what we’ve seen from them for most of this season. Looking at how they perform quarter by quarter, it seems almost impossible they’d have even eight victories on the season. The first quarter is ugly, and the rest of the quarters don’t ever make up for it. I do like what we’re seeing from the young group when they do manage to fall into a clutch situation. The Rockets get very confident, and we see them turn a switch. The challenge for the Rockets’ coaching staff is to get that switch toggled before tight games in the fourth quarter. That’s the challenge for the Rockets’ coaching staff.

https://www.nba.com/news/power-rankings-2022-23-week-9

#26↑ HOUSTON ROCKETS
Record: 8-18

OffRtg: 109.3 (27) DefRtg: 115.4 (28) NetRtg: -6.1 (27) Pace: 100.0 (15)

The Rockets don’t rank last defensively like they did last year, but they’re in the bottom five for what would be the third straight season, and they’re breaking their own record for most transition points allowed per game (26.7). The Spurs had scored just 103.1 points per 100 possessions over their 11-game losing streak, but the Rockets allowed them to score 118 on 98 as the streak came to an end on Thursday.

But over these first 11 days of December, the Rockets also have wins over the Suns, Sixers and Bucks. The win over Milwaukee was much uglier than the other two. In fact, it was the first time in almost three years (since Dec. 16, 2019) that the Rockets won a game in which they scored less than a point per possession. But a common thread in all three games was Jalen Green leading the way offensively. His shooting remains erratic, but he got to the line a bunch against both Phoenix and Philly. And against the Bucks on Sunday, he was 12-for-21 from the field (including 7-for-11 from outside the paint) before snaking into the paint and drawing a foul on Brook Lopez for the go-ahead free throws with 35 seconds left. The Rockets are now 7-3 when Green has scored 25 points or more and 1-15 when he hasn’t.

Even with the loss to the Spurs, the Rockets have played only four games (they’re 2-2) against the 11 teams currently under .500 (they’re one of the 11, obv.), while every other team has played at least seven games against that group. Their seven-game homestand (which began with the win over the Bucks on Sunday) will give them three more, with the 12-15 Heat in Houston on Thursday.

Week 9: vs. PHX, vs. MIA, vs. POR

 

https://theathletic.com/3993909/2022/12/19/nba-power-rankings-week-10/

27. Houston Rockets (previously 27th) | 9-20 | -5.7 net rating

Weekly slate: Win over Suns, Loss to Heat, Loss to Blazers

Big-ticket gift idea: Victor Wembanyama. A Houston Rockets young core of Wemby, Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Şengün, Tari Eason, Kevin Porter Jr. and Josh Christopher would be so ridiculously fun. Unless you want Wembanyama on your favorite team and that isn’t the Rockets, I don’t know how anybody could possibly be against this.

What Gus is getting them at the office: Some shot-making consistency from Smith. The last 13 games for the rookie have been a lot better than the first 15 games of his career. During this 13-game stretch, Smith is making 46.0 percent of his shots and 40.8 percent of his 3-pointers. And we saw a stellar defensive effort against Giannis in one of those games.

Why this ranking? The Rockets are .500 over their last 12 games, and the win over Phoenix was super impressive, even with no Devin Booker. But they stay put because Orlando is surging and OKC salvaged its week with the win over Memphis.


https://www.nba.com/news/power-rankings-2022-23-week-10

#27↓ HOUSTON ROCKETS
Record: 9-20

OffRtg: 109.1 (27) DefRtg: 114.7 (26) NetRtg: -5.7 (27) Pace: 99.7 (18)

The Rockets are 2-1 against the Suns, having outscored Phoenix by 77 points (151-84) on restricted area buckets and free throws over their two December wins. Jalen Green was 11-for-12 from the line on Tuesday as the Rockets (despite a 23-10 turnover differential) improved to 8-3 (with six straight wins) in games in which he’s scored at least 25 points. That was also both the first game this season in which the Rockets (who’ve been at their worst — minus-13.1 points per 100 possessions — in the first quarter) never trailed and the first in which the Suns never led.

The Rockets are 1-17 when Green hasn’t scored 25 points, with the second-year guard having shot 13-for-37 (including 1-for-12 from 3-point range) over losses to the Heat and Blazers last week. Kevin Porter Jr. missed a step-back 3-pointer for the tie against Miami and the team was 3-for-29 (10.3%) from beyond the arc against Portland. The Rockets haven’t missed 27 straight, but they now have the two worst 3-point shooting games (3-for-29 and 3-for-28) for any team this season. Now more of an attacking team, they’ve seen drops in the percentage of their shots that have come from 3-point range in each of the last three seasons, and only two teams — the Wolves and Bulls — have been outscored by more points per game (7.6) from beyond the arc.

The Rockets’ first meeting against San Antonio brought an end to the Spurs’ 11-game losing streak. Meeting No. 2 is in Houston on Monday, Game 5 of the Rockets’ seven-game homestand.

Week 10: vs. SAS, vs. ORL, vs. DAL

 

https://theathletic.com/4016043/2022/12/26/nba-power-rankings-week-11/

29. Houston Rockets (previously 27th) | 9-23 | -6.1 net rating

Weekly slate: Loss to Spurs, Loss to Magic, Loss to Mavs

Team clutch: (7-10) | +5.5 net rating (Ranked 11th)

The offense has been atrocious for the Houston Rockets in the clutch, but they have the second best defense in the clutch this season. Despite their 7-10 clutch record, they’ve performed impressively for a young team.

Mr. Reliable: Jalen Green | 47.6 FG | 0.0 3FG | 68.8 FT | 18.1 points per 36 | 5.8 rebounds per 36 | 1.8 assists per 36 | 2.9 turnovers per 36

Green has been their only reliable guy so far. He hasn’t hit a 3-pointer yet, but he’s doing a good job of getting solid looks and putting them up. There aren’t a lot of turnovers or assists from him. This thing is always going up when he’s got it.

Mr. Unreliable: Kevin Porter Jr. | 24.0 FG | 16.7 3FG | 84.2 FT | 18.2 points per 36 | 7.9 rebounds per 36 | 3.0 assists per 36 | 5.5 turnovers per 36

Porter has been a disaster at the end of games so far, unless he’s at the free-throw line. He’s turned the ball over a lot, but he does get to the free-throw line a to, so that’s a positive.

https://www.nba.com/news/power-rankings-2022-23-week-11

#29↓ HOUSTON ROCKETS
Record: 9-23

OffRtg: 108.9 (27) DefRtg: 115.0 (28) NetRtg: -6.1 (27) Pace: 99.7 (17)

The Rockets’ seven-game homestand began with wins over the Bucks and Suns … and it ended with a five-game losing streak that included losses to the Spurs and Magic. The Rockets led both games at the half, but scored just 89 points on 99 second-half possessions to fall to 1-3 in games played between the bottom six teams in the league. They have five more wins (they’re 7-15) against the 17 teams currently over .500 than they do (they’re 2-8) against the other 12 teams that are currently below .500.

Eric Gordon (who missed the Rockets’ loss to the Mavs on Friday) seemingly remains a player who should receive trade interest from contenders, but he’s been struggling of late, shooting just 14-for-45 (31%) over his last five games. And the Rockets continue to stick with a starting lineup that has been outscored by 13.3 points per 100 possessions in its 327 minutes*, holding the worst marks for both offensive and defensive efficiency among the 21 lineups that have played at least 150 minutes this season. It also ranks last in assist percentage among those lineups, having recorded assists on just 47.6% of its buckets, and one might assume that Gordon would shoot better playing alongside better (or more willing) passers.

*Only three lineups in the last 10 years have finished a season with a worse point differential per 100 possessions in at least 300 minutes: two Lakers lineups in 2014-15 and ‘15-16 and the Knicks’ original starting lineup last season.

The Rockets visit the Bulls on Monday, but then they’ll play nine of their next 10 games against those teams currently over .500. They already have a win in Dallas, where they’ll be on Thursday.

Week 11: @ CHI, @ BOS, @ DAL, vs. NYK