I just don't see that. I think that MAYBE JV can be signed to a 2 yr or 2yr + option deal and maybe a little less than $40M per but not likely. But if the front office tries to "negotiate" these amounts they go somewhere else and get this money. IMO
Varsho is worth $26M AAV according to Trade Simulator. He is a super two with service time at exactly the floor for the category of 2.128. This gives him 4 controllable years in arbitration. While he has played a handful of games at catcher, he is essentially an OFer who can play all three positions. His only value at catcher is as an emergency third catcher. He now has ONE full season of close to 600 PA with a 109 OPS+. He is HIGH RISK at anything close to $26M/year of assumed annual field value. But honestly, it's very close to a Pena in production and risk, but in the OF. Both contribute with both the bat and on defense. But it is not extraordinary for an outfielder as it is for SS. Pena 4.8 WAR (2.5 dWAR) and Varsho 4.9 WAR (2.0 dWAR).
Wonder the price of Bryan Reynolds? Would Jake Meyers, Phil Maton and Forrest Whitley get that deal done?
Pittsburgh has made it very clear they do not want to trade him so any team will need to blow them away with an overpay to consider it. And he is a below average defender that should probably be in LF. They would want a package like: Hunter Brown, Joe Perez, and Colin Barber to even consider it. We need to move on.
A different player caught my attention while looking at Reynolds. Ke'Bryan Hayes. He is a Tomball product who plays well above average Defense at 3B (3.0 dWAR) with 4.3 WAR overall. While an average hitter (87 OPS+), it would be an improvement over Gurriel numbers (84 OPS+) last year. This would enable a move of Bregman from 3B with 4.5 WAR (0.0 dWAR) to 1B where I like a 3B skillset. He's just below Varsho in value because he's signed for 8 more years.(through 2030) He'll be in his age 26 season in 2023. 2022 IF 1B Gurriel -0.3 WAR (-1.1 dWAR) 2B Altuve 5.1 WAR (-1.2 dWAR) 3B Bregman 4.5 WAR (0.0 dWAR) SS Pena 4.8 WAR (2.5 dWAR) IF 14.1 WAR (0.2 dWAR) 2022 IF 1B Bregman 4.5 WAR (0.0 dWAR) 2B Altuve 5.1 WAR (-1.2 dWAR) 3B Hayes 4.3 WAR (3.0 dWAR) SS Pena 4.8 WAR (2.5 dWAR) IF 18.7 WAR (4.3 dWAR)
I'm sorry to to let you know that there is no way in hell Bregman is moving to 1st base. Its just not happening. Somebody with the stature of Alex is not moving for a Pirate you brought in with a trade. Jose Abreu should be an Astros already. It's the easiest way to add a plus bat to the lineup. I do not know what they are waiting for. I dont know if 2 years 30 million gets it done. We have made back to back World Series trips and won one of them. Did we not make playoff money??? I sure do see tons of Astros gear around the city when I go out. Spend some damn money!!!. I want back to back titles!!!
So improving the team just ISN'T going to happen if it involves moving Bregman from 3B, even someone with even better range who won't be a rental. Our best ever 1B was a 3B convert. Some guy named Bagwell who's in the HOF. OK. I get it. Abreu or NOTHING.
Bregman is a great 3baseman. You don’t move a great 3baseman to first base for an ok hitter. Abreu, Bell, Contreras or run with Diaz or Hensley. Sign JV and Abreu and the off-season has been successful with plenty of assets to make mid-season trades.
1) I have no idea why Bregman to first keeps getting brought up. Seriously Lance McCullers has a better chance of being moved to shortstop than Bregman moved to first ( ok an exaggeration but Alex ain't moving and any coach who moved him should be fired immediately) 2) Hayes is one of the highest rated, most promising young players in MLB. He is simply not being traded in 2022, 2023, 2024, or 2025. If they continue to suck then I could see them consider it by 2026. IMO the Astros do not have anyone other than Jeremy Pena they would consider for him. They could offer Hunter Brown, Pedro Leon, Yainer Diaz, and Drew Gilbert and the Pirates would just laugh and say "who else" AND SHOULD But in the scenario you laid out Hayes and not Bregman would be the one changing positions.
Also for the record Bregman's 4 5 WAR at 3b is closer to 3.8 as a 1B, as position defensive value is part of the algorithm and 3B rates higher than 1B.
With the elimination of extreme shifts, IF range once again increases in importance, though not as drastically as some seem to believe. 1B is often occupied with a Bat 1st mindset, so moving Bregman would almost certainly benefit his dWAR relative to other 1B men. he has shown success at 3b with quick twitch coverage which should work well at 1B with scoops and digs. He already has experience moving from SS to 3B so he would likely make a move to 1B almost as seamlessly as Bagwell. I'm not saying we should do that, but it should be considered. And it might not be too long before shifting Altuve to DH regularly should be considered. He can still hit, but the defensive range is failing. We'll just have to see if the shift change helps or not. I'm not advocating a permanent change, but I'd like to see: DH R Altuve SS R Pena LF Alvarez 1B Bregman RF Tucker 2B Hensley So his dWAR of 0.0 should be ignored because he is a great 3B. I don't know what is being measured, but whatever it is, 3.0 is better than 0.0. The bat moves to 1B and the dWAR probably goes up.
WAR is a stat that is weighted by position importance. If everything else is the same - same number of chances requiring the same plays handled the same way etc then 0.0 dWAR as a 3B is negative dWAR as a 1B because it does not get the weighted bonus that 3B gets as it is not viewed as important of a defensive position so does not add or decrease win probability as much. In short if a 1B and 3B have exactly the same stats then a 3B would have a higher WAR.
Similarly if a 1B and 3B both finished their careers with matching numbers. Let's say 300 HR and all equal stats along with 3 gold gloves. Then the 3B would have a better chance of getting into the HOF.
I understand that. But a 11.5 run difference would be offset by the above average play at 1B (dWAR) relative to the replacement level at 1B. So the effect is 1B WAR + dWar increase = 3B WAR + 0). Both the expected increase in dWAR moving to 1B and the Position difference of 11.5 runs are two ways of measuring the same thing. That is, more 1B are poor fielders than 3B typically which skews the average WAR of each. So I would expect the WAR to remain constant as the dWAR increases to reflect superior fielding above average when moving from 3B to 1B.
Real Talk: 1+ of Urquidy/Brown/Garcia/Javier 1 of Gilbert/Melton (they don't need OFs though, but a prospect they view as on that same level) 1+ of Lee/Diaz/Leon/Others Stros would also get some low-A lottery ticket player in the deal.
Bagwell moved to first in order to get him on the field. Caminiti had 3rd locked up. It's not like Bagwell was the incumbent at 3rd who had played there for 5 seasons and was firmly entrenched. He was a rookie.
