An EXTREMELY hard pass on Bellinger. He would set us back more than McCormick would at a higher price and the Astros would feel like they would have to put him higher in the lineup to justify the signing. There's a big reason why that guy is available and he doesn't fit the Astros mold. NEXT!
Im fine with passing at 40 mil a year. Alot of risk in degression and injury. Plus it puts the Astros over the first tax threshold without addressing needs at 1B, LF/DH/CF and a vet reserve IF'er. We could add Abreu/Bell, Benentendi/Brantley/maybe Nimmo and maybe Gurriel for under 40 mil AAV
I think a lot of this comes down to how much Crane wants to spend. Verlander at 40 for a couple of years (if that is even real) isn't going to put a strain on his finances. JV will pretty much pay for himself with merchandise sells and attendance bumps when he pitches. The real question is do they want to sign Verlander and fill other needs and go into the tax. If they do, they will most likely be repeat tax payers for several years. Will Crane pay the penalty? If there is anytime to do it, now seems like the time. Capitalize on the WS win and having a few more years of a window of high expectations. This could also be another similar to Correa situation, where the baseball people are telling Crane JV can be replaced for a lot less allowing us to spend more elsewhere. The problem with the Correa thing though is the disconnect with Click where he didn't really spend elsewhere (not that it mattered in the end).
I would add that the difference between JV and Correa's situation is that signing JV will not require 7+ ( maybe 10) years like Correa was requiring to return. Regardless of money a 2-3 yr deal is quicker and easier to recover from if it ends up badly, than a 7+ year one.
4-5 years ago Crane made the statement that he talked to his investors, and would agree on a budget - and that if he ever would go over budget on into the tax, it was a bigger deal than with most owners because he needed to get the approval from the investors. Having said that, he has to have paid down a lot of what he borrowed to buy the Astros. It has been the most successful run in Astros history and every year but one, since 2017; Crane has said there was money available for the right player and last year he was actually upset that the Astros didn't spend more. I know there are discussions of Crane not expecting that Verlander wants a contract the size that he does, but I don't believe that deep down he is surprised. Last year, he gave Verlander a 2 year 50 million dollar deal, with the second being a player option. This was coming off TJ and missing almost two full seasons. Had Verlander faltered, he would still get 25 million dollars this year. This season Verlander not only stayed healthy and won the Cy Young with every single 1st place vote, but he had like the second or third lowest ERA in the AL in the last 40 years. That all adds up to a large pay raise and Crane knows that.
I wish JV would have pitched that 7th inning in his last start and tied the record for lowest AL era at 1.74 over there last 50+ years.
I respect the ERA, but I have always thought that on good teams, ERA isn't as meaningful. I know statistically it should matter - but better defensive teams seem like would contribute at a greater rate to numbers like Verlander had last year. I am easily maxed on statistics, but our pitching staff and team ERA was AMAZING last year . . . I think a reasonable part of that was our infield defense. Not trying to take anything away from Verlander, but I'd imagine that on a different team with an average infield doesn't produce a generational ERA.
Who tf wants Bellinger? Dude must have been juicing or something because he’s not close to the same player. Rather switch Justin Turner to 1B.
I know Crane = idiot Jerry Jones has become the new stigma... but he's still the most pragmatic/cunning/and as sharp/shrewd of a negotiator of an owner perhaps in Houston sports history. He will see what the market is for JV. Is there a team willing to go 3 years that seems to be JV's asking price? Hell, is there another team willing to go even 2 years? The Astros won't bid against themselves... but they will bid once the market is obvious. Correa never really had a market, thus the Astros didn't budge. JV's market last year got set and then Crane reacted. Relief pitching market got set this year and Crane reacted.
I assume Verlander wants a similar option as he had this year. That option made sense when the price was relatively low at 25 million. In this case the second year would be 40 million bucks and the Astros will have take all the risk.
Bellinger has been atrocious in recent years but good Lord if we signed him and he figured it out and starts raking… lmaoooo at how salty the Dodgers fans would be!! If our player development guys can spot the flaw in his batting AND believe they could fix it, then I’m very interested.
I have considered that Judge would add a longer commitment, but at a similar AAV should Verlander choose to go elsewhere. If Tucker cannot be extended, it makes the out of character Judge deal a little more palatable and plausible. I think re-signing JV last years was our sizzle contract last year and there always seems to be one under Crane. And we cannot overlook the Alvarez extension as a future core move that got done.
How much would it be to get Rodon on a 3 year deal with a player optuon on year 4 Abreau on 2 year And Nimmo on whatever?
Odd because it means they’ll have 5 open 40 man spots. Hard to see them adding 5 players to the big league roster. Only advantage will be open 40 man spot for optionable high ceiling players that might be DFA during this offseason.
