The incredible transformation of Justin Brooks Verlander

Some other, less flattering comparisons of Verlander with other HoF pitchers. Everyone loves pulling up Ryan, Clements, and Johnson as comparisons for what Justin can do from age 40 onwards. Judging by Justin’s age 35-39 seasons, there’s no reason, barring injury, that he can’t keep up an all-star level of pitching into his early 40s. What I want to point out is that Ryan, Clements, and Johnson are arguably the three best pitchers in the last 70 years. Verlander very well might have been on that level had he played his entire career in Houston. But a comparison to other HOF pitchers in their 40’s is warranted.

Steve Carlton: won a Cy Young at 37, 5.21 ERA from ages 40-43.
John Smoltz: All Star at age 40, 3.50 ERA from 40-42, but only made 21 starts in his last two seasons
Greg Maddux: 101 starts, 4.19 ERA from ages 40-42
Tom Glavine: 79 starts, 4.33 ERA from ages 40-42
Tom Seaver: 61 starts, 3.53 ERA from ages 40-41
Bert Byleven: 25 starts with a 4.74 ERA at 41
Phil Niekro: 295 starts with a 3.84 ERA from ages 40-48 (holy ****)
Gaylord Perry: 149 starts with a 3.51 ERA from ages 40-44
Warren Spahn: 156 starts, 3.44 ERA from ages 40-44

I’m not including guys who pitched into their 40s but with no chance of sniffing the hall like Bartolo Colon and Jamie Moyer.

42 seems to be the magic number where even the best can’t do it anymore. If I extended Verlander, I’d try to aim for 3-115 with a team option for the third year.

 

3-115 with a team option or some type of vesting based on the second year would work.

 

Modern pitching usage might smooth out that decline but overall I agree both with your sentiments and the contract type you're suggesting.

If JV sticks with the Astros, there's a good chance he's done with 200IP seasons and 5-man rotations.

 

The Rangers don't make sense if his goal is to get to 300 wins. The only teams that could get him there and pay him are us, the Dodgers, the Yankees and, maybe, the Blue Jays.

 

After the '24 season you have Altuve and Bregman reaching FA.

After '25 you have Framber, Tuck, and Javier.

The only way I'd be willing to give JV a 3rd yr is if he met certain milestones (say 135 IP each season) just like Crane had him commit to in this last contract he signed.

This team isn't like LAD, NYY, or NYM where they could be saddled with a 35-45 million salary and getting no production. Going beyond two yrs also could keep them from resigning most of the guys mentioned above.

 

300 wins is a nice round number but it is a counting stat that is beyond a pitchers control. I can't imagine why a pitcher would care about it enough to make career changing decisions based on it.

 

Kyle Tucker is probably going to make $40M the next 3 years combined in arbitration. Just to be clear, you would be offering him a 3 year 140M contract- sight unseen, 3 years before he got to FA, fully guaranteed where he doesn’t even need to stay healthy or productive the next 3 years? Nah man, that isn’t going to happen from the Astros perspective. Tuckers max 6 year contract with the Astros this season would be 150, and I’d argue since you are giving him the guarantee early it should be more like 6/130. Anything more than that is an absolute gift and Impersonally probably wouldn’t do. It’s the same reason Yordan “only” got 6/117 or whatever it was. That and slight injury concerns I’m sure.

 

Fantastic summary and a great trip down memory lane. Steve Carlton is the one that worried me the most - amazing power and control FB/slider pitcher who seemed to be aging really well, then fell completely apart. The others (except maybe Seaver) were pinpoint pitchers (or already a reliever in Smoltz) who couldn’t survive losing a few MPH. Those are the types I had dismissed because JV comes off such a higher power base … but Carlton isn’t so different. I still think he is more like Ryan, but if you think a fall off isn’t possible you aren’t being realistic.

 

I'm certain Verlander would come back, but is definitely trying to up his price to do so. The Dodgers would be the only team that would make sense if he left as I feel either New York team wouldn't be able to assure him a long post season stint.

 

no way next season JV will pitch as good as he just did, i expect his ERA to ballon to high 2's to low 3's at least.

 

I mean, fine. Make the number $130-150m/6 instead of $180m/6. My point was that it makes more sense to pay the guy a few years shy of his physical peak FMV instead of the guy entering his age-40 season. And yea, that's the idea of a 6 year extension. There's no guarantee he's healthy or productive in any of the years.

 

From what I've read, he has nothing left to really accomplish and he might be the last starter to ever get to 300 wins considering how modern pitchers are managed.

 

This. I was assuming 300 wins was the biggest reason he picked 45 y/o to pitch to. Given aging curves, that might be the exact time he gets to 300. There's no other particularly obvious reason he wants to pitch that long beyond "love of the game".

 

The difference between the Astros (and probably the Dodgers) vs. other teams is that they don't HAVE to sign Verlander to win the World Series. Maybe Verlander increases the Astros chances to make it/win the WS by 5-10% while it increases Yankee/Ranger chances by 25% or more. Those teams can rationalize 3yr/120mm+ if he breaks down as "we wouldn't have made it anyways." The Astros are risking not improving other areas with all-star talent for the marginal gain.

That being said, I hope something can be worked out as I think the rotation pecking order is perfect as is.

 

I acknowledge that I " laid it on a bit thick there"

And I apologize for insulting you for your opinion.

A bit to emotional there.

In my opinion JV is very much like Nolan Ryan, Randy Johndon, and Roger Clemens in that he can remain effective into his mid 40s.

As for Tucker I agree with you that he is the more important priority but I think Crane would do both.

but unfortunately it does not feel like Tucker is interested.

I sure looks like he is like Springer and Correa and headed for free agency rather than an extension.

 

Right. That’s why he has to give up some of his absolute max earning. Which is why 6 years should be 130 or 135 max. Bregman got paid 30M for his 2 years he gave up when he didn’t 5/100 right now. Tucker should get the same kind of offer (30M per year for however many FA years he’s willing to give up). If he doesn’t want to buy out any years then you just go year to year in arb like Correa.

 

Also don't forget that if he agrees to an extension it will increase his AAV for this year vs the CBT.

Yordan counts over $19M and he likely would not have gotten half that in arbitration.

 

Yep. That’s why there really isn’t any sense from a team perspective unless you are getting some walk years.
It’s quite
Possible that 3 years from now there is a step back.
2 years- Bregman and Altuve- I bet they both remain astros
3 years- Tucker, Urquidy, Framber Javier. Whoever our new 1B is probably.

 

Getting more than Cole would probably make a difference 3 x 36.1 = 108.3, so 115 might do it.