Montero Returns

It has been a long time since I played fantasy baseball, but re-signing Montero was a complete fantasy baseball move.

 

I realized fantasy baseball wasn't for me when some guy named Trout was higher on the leaderboard than Maldy.

 

While I'm glad Montero is back, I'm not liking all the arguments for re-signing him.

Martinez would be fine with more leverage. Having guys better than him is even better. Abreu and Pressly were the two best relievers this past postseason. This isn't to say this will be case going forward.

 

I too think it seems like an overpay for Montero. As historically building bullpens has always been seen as an afterthought with bargain arms. But at the same time, whose going to deny Montero was nail in the crunch all year long? He handled the set up fabulously, and he handled the late inning pressures like a boss.

But one thing is for sure, if the team is strong on the offense, the defense, and starting pitching; we’ll you can’t go to bargain bins when constructing the bullpen, especially when you found some genuine diamonds. An elite bullpen is the difference between having a team with the confidence to win vs. playing with rattled doubts.

I think the strong bullpen gave the Astros the moxie to be head strong and flex their muscle. And just as Presley figured it out, as the closer 1A, the Astros must think they have a closer 1B in Montero. Imagine how furious Astros fans would be next year if it’s Montero closing out the Astros as an opposing pitcher, because with that 34 million dollar contract, the Astros think the world about Montero.

 

As long as Crane is willing to raise the payroll to keep the machine churning, 3-5M extra per year isn’t a back breaker if you think he’s the man.

 

I don't disagree with that at all. I am just saying there are other areas that need to be addressed more and I would hate for this move to affect those. As in we are going for a player that costs 10 mill less bc we gave this contract out

 

Now that Click is out, I’m not concerned.

 

A decade ago, maybe even 5-6 years ago I would agree with you on Martinez. To be clear I think Martinez is a useful MLB pitcher and very well could have a sub 3.00 era out of the pen.
However, there is a difference between late in games in the playoffs and the regular season when it comes to pitching, especially when you may bring in someone to get a crucial out with runners on base.

Guys with more dominant stuff (doesn’t necessarily have to be strikeouts but that’s good) fair better against very good to elite hitters in these types of situations.

I was an advanced stats guy before it was really a thing (in the early 90’s I was in school keeping notes on how hitters did against pitches over a certain velocity etc.), but I have seen enough to draw some conclusion for the modern game, and that’s that dominant relievers or relievers with a dominant pitch are far better in the post season late in high leverage situations. Will that be the case in 3 years? Maybe not, but for now it is the case.

I respect that you disagree, and I understand where you are coming from but a pitcher like Montero or Abreu with an era of 2.50 is worth more than 3 guys or 4 guys like Martinez with the same era, because the Astros are playing for those 4-5 pivotal moments in the playoffs that they need someone like Montero and that’s where he earns a lot of his money.

There is a reason Montero is being paid as much as he is, and it’s because teams will pay a premium for that type of stuff coupled with success.

 

Doesn’t feel like an Astros move tbh. Don’t get me wrong, I really liked Montero this year and love the idea of running it back with our bullpen but Montero is the type of guy we’d usually let walk instead of lock up “long” term.

Like others have said if this move (or moves like this) impede other more impactful moves then it becomes a problem. Granted for all we know this is the first sign Crane is going to aggressively open the pocketbook and it becomes somewhat of a moot point, but that’s not the mentality that’s gotten us this far.

 

I think the Astros have always ( since 2017) said that they would always consider deals under 5 years since they are not long-term commitments.

I get that RP are different and more volatile year to year but this is only 3 years and 5% of the CBT.

As you said this is fine as long as it does not prevent other signings.

This team has very few holes but very few is not zero.

 

Montero had great stats this year. Unbelievably good advanced stats. But this is the only year he has done it. We are clearly buying high — hopefully not at a short term peak.

 

First full year with the Astros pitching staff. They clearly see it.

 

The pitching staff obviously had input and they are the ones that were lobbying for him to be included in the Toro Graveman trade. They obviously are bullish on him. Considering the job the staff did this year, I will give the contract the benefit of the doubt. I personally would love to run it back with everyone coming back (Brantley and Yuli at lower price tags) plus one extra bat (please Abreu). I want Vazquez back also to platoon with Maldy. Maldy's body will not hold up with the current workload.

 

Seems too much money. He did very well this season and even played closer a few times and did well in that role

I agree with the sentiment that this might be a precursor to Crane breaking the bank this offseason

Championships, championships, championships

I wouldn't mind B2B much less a 3-peat

 

I wouldn't mind if they closed their window down a few years if it meant 3 peat. Let's take this time to really appreciate them. Houston sports would be so bad right now if the Astros weren't the MLB version of the Patriots of the 2000's/10's

 

The added value for Montero is that he was fantastic in filling in as closer when Pressly went down.

That definitely factored in to what we offered him, and I can understand that.

I just thought Abreu steps into that role this season and we move on from Montero. At least at the price we ended up paying him. Happy for the young man he got his payday.

 

He got paid. Now, it's time to suck.

 

Not a "few times". He actually had 14 saves in 15 opportunities. With starters not going as deep into games now there's a premium on relievers. Even more important is having power arms who have can strike guys out in high leverage situations (especially in the playoffs and Montero fits the bill).

It also allows them to keep the depth they had in their pen and keeps all of them fresh for the playoffs. Everyone saying he's only did it one yr well he spent a lot of his career going back and forth between starting and the pen. The Stros obviously saw something in him, enough so, that they wanted him included in the Toro trade. The changes they made in him obviously have turned him around. They potentially lose Neris and Stanek after next season.

The luxury tax is going up to 233 mil next season, 237 mil in '24, 241 in '25 and 244 mil in '26.

 

Yeah, my bad for not fully stating his role

He was an absolute beast last year

I also like the fact he's black. He doesn't speak English but he's black

Ditto Alvarez, Valdez, and Neris

I love all my Astros homies (past and present) but my druthers is black and brown

Yeah I said it

Props to Altuve for improving his English over the years

 

I get that Montero is better than Martinez. I'm not saying that. Martinez finished 8th in leverage for the Astros relievers. I said he could handle more leverage (i.e., better than 8th most leverage). Are you saying that Martinez would fall apart if he was 7th in leverage? 5th?

I'm looking forward to seeing if Martinez's slider stays as dominating as it was last year with more use/leverage, and if he leans even more on his sinker over his 4-seam. Martinez may fall apart next season, but it would not surprise me if he hopped into the top 5 releivers in leverage next season for Houston.