I think the innings will hold him back from a Cy Young in the immediate term. That and not having a reliable third option pitch. If he does what he did this year (150 IP plus his stats) until he hits FA, I'd be stoked.
I just don't see him starting enough games for that. He hasn't shown he can go much past 6 innings yet and frankly I don't want him to be in the Cy Young discussion. I want him fresh with not much mileage on him as the season goes on and not a work horse. He's a great weapon to have when you need him. He reminds me of a running back that doesn't play every down but can get you 6-8 yards at will. His success may come from his low usage rate which equates to wins regardless. Asking him to pitch 180+ innings on 30+ starts may be over kill. Keep in mind, he only started 2 games in the post season (mostly due to sweeping Seattle) but the Astros started McCullers twice ahead of him for a reason. Not because McCullers is better but because Javier can get you a win when the other team has to throw out their junk.
Someone may remember better than me, but I think I saw that the reason Dusty leaned heavily on Maldonado rather than splitting time with Valdez was his familiarity with the pitching staff. If so, it could indicate a change in the catcher game sharing arrangement should Valdez return.
It's tough to make a change like that mid-season. If Vazquez does come back it's because they feel he can have the entire off season and spring training to get familiar with the pitching staff and starting around half the games. The good news is Maldy has shown he can carry a team as their primary catcher the entire season (even when hitting a buck eighty, he gets timely hits)
I think Vazquez has made it clear he is only going to sign someplace he will start over 50% of the time. Maldy is under contract and Dusty is returning so there is ZERO % chance of that unless Maldy gets injured (and seriously injured where he CAN'T keep playing, apparently). Also Vazquez would be a very below average first baseman. Just because he is a solid hitter for a catcher doesn't make him Lou Gehrig with 1B mitt on. I was impressed with Korey Lee after he returned to AAA. I hope he wins the back up job and spends it learning from Maldy. If this team gets 1-2 bats for 1B/DH that project to 750+ OPS then I could hit enough to be reasonable at catcher. Let the kids learn while Maldy is still here. And I'm talking about pregame stuff - film studying, game planning, bonding with pitchers, etc. He can be on the roster all season, start 10 games and hit .100 and it would be a huge boost if he is ready to start in 2024.
I just hope Vasquez isn't completely off the table. Most of the other Veteran catchers are bat first and I like defense.
I would also like it if he would consider re-signing, but I think that opportunity was flushed by the way we used him.
I wouldn't worry too much about catcher defense. The Astros prioritize that and most of the non-Contreras/Sanchez options are solid behind the dish. Catching has come a long way in the last decade and there aren't many egregiously bad defensive catchers anymore. The bar is so high on that end that there aren't many actually good offensive catchers.
Korey Lee hit 25 homers in 104 games in AAA this year (.790 OPS) and has a 70-grade arm. I seriously hope we are making innings for him in 2023. Lee, Pedro Leon, and Yainer Diaz are all players who can be very nice pieces for the team starting next season. Fortunately for the Astros, all three play positions of need (C, CF, 1B). Dirden probably waits another year.
Martin Was ranked 29th in catcher frame rate. Their pop time to 2nd base is seperated by .01 of a second. Contreras is faster on the exchange. Maldonado had a ton of dropped and passed balls. I like Maldy, but he gets the Chucky Brown treatment. 0 offense and and great over evaluation of his defense importance.
The pitchers and organization LOVE him and think there are zero better catchers in MLB. Reference Strom calling him the teams MVP in 2021. He does so much behind the scenes like game planning and connecting with the pitchers/keeping them settled and on point. None of that is accounted for in the stats or analysis you mention. That said I personally think his true value is somewhere in between. But there is an old adage: perception is reality. If the Astros think he is that good and that valuable then he is TO THEM. And they are all that matter. If the rest of the lineup is improved it doesn't matter any offense from catcher is icing.
Top 5 lowest opponent batting average in history from what I recollect also. Edit Last season would qualify him in the top 15 in history. His career hits per 9 of 5.7 is 0.8 hits less than the career leader of Nolan Ryan. Obviously Nolan had some bad years averaged in. Javier has elite numbers
Agree. Yainer Diaz might be a better hitter than Maldy right now, but in terms of being a catcher he's light years away. I've cited that Chronicle article on Yainer a few times but I think it bears repeating because it highlights the non-score board stuff that catchers do that make the difference:. Link Maldy is basically an on-field coach. There's going to be a point where those non-quantifiable attributes get outweighed by poor hitting and defense, but for now everyone still loves the guy.
not off the table but probably going too be offered a starting job and more than I think the Astros can offer after signings at 1B, LF/DH, a reserve IF’er and maybe JV
