I have since day one believed that the Republicans would pick up a senate seat or two at the minimum. Inflation is high, so are gas prices. We have a war in Europe as well and there are still consequences we all are dealing with because of COVID. Having said that, the Democrats have surprisingly done very well to this point. It appears that the wave is going back towards the Republicans right now, let's see where it is on election day. I do think that NV will flip, and it is possible that GA and AZ do as well, but Kelly is a strong candidate and Walker is a walking train wreck. Still, it is largely a coin toss... and places like GA, AZ and NV do have a lot of conservatives and WA is a state that is angry at the Democratic status quo. From the Democratic side, a stronger than anticipated showing in GA, because of their grassroots efforts could really set the tone for the midterm. If the Democrats manage to keep or increase their Senate majority, that will be a big deal
Yeah. This is where Beto messed up. I think he actually would have had a much better chance at running for Lt. Gov or some other statewide office. Also think the Dem party missed a huge opportunity to back the challenger to probable criminal who is out on bond - Paxton.
Moderate voters are holding Democrats responsible for current times. This is a mistake - Just like how Republicans embraced Trump.
He only caters to the NRA, gun lobbyists, and big refineries. People with disabilities, school shooting victims, those without health insurance, those suffering from chemical waste oozing from those power plants, and those who don't feed his greedy pockets are worthless to him. Vote this creep out!
This is the map for Senate races for 2024. If the above RCP projections are accurate, and the Senate becomes 53/47 Repubican majority, this map looks ominous for Democrats. There is practically no state Dems will have much hope to try to pick off in 2024. Meanwhile there are between 7-10 states where Republicans have a legitimate shot at picking up from Democrats. It's a long shot, and 2 years (especially in today's climate) is an eternity in politics but it's not completely out of the question we could see a fillibuster proof Republican Senate in 2025.
Damn these midterm commercials are getting salty. My TV screen just showed a massive explosion with the voice over yelling “MURDER! RAPE!” I thought it was an ad for some new revenge action movie but it was a political ad by Republican Scott Jensen running against Incumbent Mn Gov Tim Walz.
There own aggregates though show Fetterman and Kelly with narrow leads so not sure what their projections are
My guess is based on the moving average of the entirety of polls with heavy emphasis on recent polls.
Sure that’s possible and they could be right but at the same time there has been polling all over the place too. A recent pol showed Laxalt ahead in NV and two polls showed Ryan tied with Vance. Another factor in several of the states is how much early vote is in already.
I added the adjusted poll averages chart on my post above after you quoted this. It helps explain where the projections come from.
Got it and that make sense. Like I said they may be right. I’m not so certain. My own feeling is they the Democrats will hold with a 50-50 Senate but things are changing fast. I also think the Senate won’t me decided this November as GA will go to a runoff.
What will the next two years of GOP led Senate and House look like? Expectation 1) Block Biden judges include for SCOTUS. Expectation 2) Ban abortion nationwide. Expectation 3) End any and all pending and ongoing investigations against Trump. 4) Cut taxes ? given inflation. Business sentiment will invert because the people they poll are republicans and feel better about the economy when they're in power despite there being no real change one way or the other. Trump will face off against DeSantis. Neoliberals and neocons will make a political union for an unviable third party. Putin meanwhile will be welcomed back by the republicans and maybe we'll give up protecting Taiwan too. America first, am I right?
