how realistic is it? can we make it to the finals NEXT year? with shaq demanding a trade, the spurs letting hedo, manu, maybe even bowen walk, the mavs losing nash and moving jamison for spares, it seems like we have a shot to be right there with the wolves and kings.
I would think that the only way the Rockets make the finals next year is if the stars line up in the correct order. Yao is still getting better (to win a finals the stars better be playing at the top of their careers) McGrady will have to get accustomed to his new teamates. Jackson will have to duplicate last years season, at age 34 or 35; this will be tough. I think a sucessful season is one where Yao and McGrady trully compliment each other. If they can get a championship this first season, it was an incredible season. I want a championship of course, but I'd be satisfied for this upcoming season true progress; the type we could not see with Francis and Mobley leading the way.
Final's next year? It's all on Yao. I see four scenarios that would put the Rox into the finals. And they all involve Yao improving his game dramatically. 1. Yao becomes the revolutionary passing big man that many have envisioned him becoming. This is a big step for him because even though Yao has made some great passes before, he is not yet a great passer. He is often a tick slow on his passes and tends to force passes into traffic. This leads to guys not getting the ball in good scoring position or worse yet, turnovers. If he can do this, then he makes T-Mac so much better because then he wouldn't have to work so hard to get good looks. Then along with Howard, JJ, and a decent shooting PG, we would be pretty deadly on offense. 2. Yao develops into a dominant scorer in the low post. Yao has shown on occasion that he can be unstoppable in the post. His turnaround jumper is effective but lacks consistency (especially when he is tired and has no legs under him). His jump hook is also inconsistent, ranging from sheer perfection in terms form, arc and accuracy to a bricklaying, block target. His drop step is one of the best in the NBA but he almost never uses it. And his attempts to throw up a sweeping or sky hook are invariably ugly. And obviously he could do a better job of getting deep post position. Now if he could refine his turnaround jumper, improve his jump hook, start using his drop step more often and begin to get better position, then he would be an amazing scorer. If he was able to do all those things along with maintaining his 80% ft, I don't see any reason why he can't put up 26 ppg or more. Then we would have two of the top offensive weapons in the game. 3. Yao starts dominating the boards leading to easy fastbreak points. I've seen Yao make many great outlet passes in the past. But he doesn't do it nearly enough. The problem is twofold. First Yao doesn't rebound enough. He got 9 rpg last year, and that isn't even close to enough for a dominant big man. And second, Steve used to always come back to the rebounder to get the safe, short pass instead of breaking away to get a longer outlet. This is because Steve's main concern was getting the ball in his hands. Steve is at his most comfortable when he is dribbling and I think it really hurt the running game. I've mentioned in other threads that Yao often puts more emphasis on blocking out his man than he does actually going after the ball (sometimes he's looking at his man so intently that he doesn't even see where the shot is going, so he gets out of position). If he could just change his technique to quickly body up his man, then look up at the shot to anticipate where the shot is going, and then time his jump, his rpg would drastically increase. And with a unparalleled open court player like T-Mac, and a decent ball pushing pg, our running game would amazing. Transition defense has always been, and to this day still is, the biggest weakness that teams can get exploited by. Being able to push the ball effectively and get easy baskets, is the reason that Denver made the playoffs, New Jersey made two Finals, the Lakers went 18-3 at the beginning of last season, and one of the big reasons that Detroit beat the Lakers this year. If Yao can become a top 5 rebounder, then it's lights out for the rest of the league. 4. A little bit of all of the above. Imagine this: Yao improves low post game and starts scoring to about 22 ppg. He also improves his rebounding technique and starts grabbing about 11rpg. Then he starts passing with better precision and decision making bringing his assists up to about 3.5 apg. You better believe that with Yao getting 22/11/3.5 and T-Mac as a sidekick the rockets would be finals bound. Of course this is a lot of improvement to expect out of a guy in one offseason. So I'll just have to keep my expectations down and my hopes up. But I do think scenario 4 can play out in about two or three years. I fully expect that Yao will be 22/11/3.5 in three years, but I fully hope that he will be 26/13/5.
If Yao struggles again at the end of the season and during the PO, we won't even make past the first round. someone ought to tell Yao to take it easy for the first half of the season and save some of that energy for the PO. I know this is not really a "solution", but i mean, you gotta try to work with what you got. oh and someone gotta tell Yao to stop being so damn nice on the court(e.g high five teammates EVERYTIME after they make play), focus on the game, you can be nice off court.
1. yao and t-mac need to mesh with each other 2. get a great supporting cast of starters especially shooters 3. have a good bench (bring in high energy or defense players) 4. everyone else gels with each other
i thnk the biggest factor in us getting to the finals (besides all those mentioned above; GREAT post m_cable) is going to be coaching: how well can JVG incorporate TMac and Yao into his offensive/defensive schemes? One of the biggest gripes I had about JVG's system last year was that it never seemed to be able to adapt to the situation. IF he can suitably split the offense between Yao and TMac and get TMAC to buy into the team defensive philosophy, we can be a darkhorse team in the playoffs.
m_cable... great post. I agree with everything you said. especially the part regarding rebounding and fast breaks. there is no reason that the ball should not find the TMac, JJ and company on the wing as soon as he rebounds it. being able to do that will really make us a better team and open up our half court offense as defenses will be wore down.
Probably not. Yao is going to play all summer in the Olympics and still won't be here to work with our strength and conditioning coaches....so I don't anticipate any major improvment in his stamina, or him being fresh for the playoffs. Probably going to be the same Yao we got last year as far as the fatigue goes. And as another poster pointed out Tmac has to become accustomed to the team and style of play here. Imo a much more realistic date is 2006. Next off season Yao has no commitments with the China National team (I believe I am correct on this anyway), and can stay in Houston and take the full off season to rest and work with strength and conditioning coaches. Hopefully this will take care of alot of the stamina/fatigue issues. Secondly, Tmac and Yao will have played with each other for a whole season and will have familiarity with each others games. So I say we should go to the 2nd round this year, but next year should be a serious contender for the championship.
The Spurs are going to be fine, if they lose those three swing men they will just sign Stephen Jackson and they won't miss a beat. I think there is more of a chance that Sacramento implodes than the Spurs falling off. Our best shot at the Championship is season ending injuries to Duncan and Garnett. j
IMHO, it's way too early to predict next season without knowing what other teams (including our own) lineup gonna be like. Just too many uncertainties, what if Spurs get Kobe? what if Dallas get Shaq and retain Dirk? What if we don't manage to sign a decent back up center and starting PG? Maybe we should leave these predictions closer to Oct.
It all depends on Yao's fitness. If Harris is effectively improving Yao's fitness, specifically stamina, we're looking at a Western Conference Finals berth. If not, we're going to the second round. Has T-Mac ever been to the second round?
These factors may determine this possibility IMO: 1. T-Mac fitting into the team chemistry wise 2. Yao's conditioning late into the season. 3. Acquiring the right fit at PG (good assist/TO ratio is key) as well as having the ability to finish as well as dish off the rock when penetrating the lane. 4. Continuity of JVG's D especially down low in the paint, and good perimeter rotation and the ability to fight through picks. A shot blocker is crucial at the 4 and 5 5. Not sustaining injuries to key players is the biggest factor obviously but so many of us take it for granted that the team will stay healthy for the whole season. If Sac keeps it's lineup intact and they avoid injuries, I honestly think they have a chance to win it all this upcoming season. I think they have too many weapons even for Larry Brown's Pistons to defend throughout a possible 7 game series.
