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2022 Astros Minor League Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by tellitlikeitis, Dec 8, 2021.

  1. Marshall Bryant

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    Thanks. I knew he came up as a catcher, but He was always a doubles hitter. I didn't know when he started elevating the ball. Perhaps when they moved into Homerun Field.
     
  2. Buck Turgidson

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    I would have guessed Robbie Wine if anyone...he got close. Then I looked back at the '83 draft and wanted to cry. Stros could have never left their viewing area and had the 2 best players out of that draft (Clemens and Ron Gant)
     
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  3. phasors28

    phasors28 Member

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    You can make a case that Biggio deserved the MVP in 1997. He finished fourth in voting. Biggio had the second highest WAR with only the MVP winner Walker and his Coors field numbers with a higher WAR. IMO Biggio was underrated and had some of his greatest years in the Astrodome. I maybe be biased but I rank Biggio among the best 2nd to play the game and ahead of Sandberg
     
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  4. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    The minor league season has ended. Corey Julks hit his 31st HR of the year in the final AAA game of 2022. Here are my end of year Astros prospect rankings:

    1. RHP Hunter Brown Grade 55 ROY candidate next season
    2. OF Drew Gilbert 50 Injury was a bummer but should be breakout candidate next year
    3. C/DH Yainer Diaz 50 Elite exit velos, if he starts 2023 in AAA and shows defensive improvement he can level up
    4. OF/IF Pedro Leon 50 Still a big fan and I think he's a breakout candidate for 2023
    5. OF Jacob Melton 50 Great start to A ball and could move up quickly in both rankings and league
    6. C Korey Lee 50 Disappointing year but was moved quickly and still has another season to improve before his stock drops too far; the power and defense were there
    7. RHP Forrest Whitley 50 Still a believer until he's released or traded
    8. 3B/1B Joe Perez 45+ Great finish with 35 PA in AAA that went very well. If he starts in AAA next season he will be a breakout candidate
    9. OF Colin Barber 45+ Just about to the "must stay healthy or be forgotten" point but he is still one of the highest ceiling prospects in the system.
    10. RHP Andrew Taylor 45+
    11. RHP Jaime Melendez 45+ mildly disappointing season after breaking out in 2021; still young
    12. RHP Alex Santos II 45+ disappointing season but still young; he needs to have a good 2023
    13. OF/1B Ryan Clifford 45+ Did not look overmatched in A ball which is a great sign; 2023 breakout candidate
    14. RHP Shawn Dubin 45+ very inconsistent but I think he can be an elite RP (Bryan Abreu type)
    15. RHP Spencer Arrighetti 45+ solid under the radar year
    16. RHP Jayden Murray 45
    17. IF David Hensley 45 AAAA type with upside
    18. OF/IF Tyler Whitaker 45 showed improvement toward the end of the season but still a disappointing season overall; breakout candidate next season as he will repeat A ball
    19. LHP Parker Mushinski 45 underrated LHRP
    20. OF Corey Julks 45 hit 31 bombs while looking capable at 3B in AAA; underrated AAAA player with upside
    21. OF Kenni Gomez 45 great start in DSL; a long way away
    22. OF Luis Baez 45 great start in DSL; a long way away
    23. OF Justin Dirden 45; breakout season, I'm lower on him than most due to k rate and defensive profile
    24. SS Cristian Gonzalez 40+ showed improvement toward the end of the season but was overmatched for much of the year; 2023 breakout candidate
    25. RHP Misael Tamarez 40+ great end of the year in AAA, stock trending up
    26. RHP MIguel Ullola 40+
    27. RHP JP France 40+ underrated, effective AAA pitcher who I expect to be added to the 40 man
    28. RHP Adrian Chaidez 40+ broke out in High A then floundered in AA.
    29. LHP Colton Gordon 40+ looked great in High A, high upside LH arm
    30. LHP Julio Robaina 40+ disappointing year in AA but hes still young
    Honorable Mention C: Miguel Palma, JC Correa, Cesar Salazar, Jose Alvarez, Nerio Rodriguez, CJ Stubbs, Luke Berryhill, Juan Santander, Sandy Gaston
    Honorable Mention IF: Grae Kessinger, Shay Whitcomb,Dauri Lorenzo, Will Wagner, Alberto Hernandez, Luis Santana, Freudis Nova
    Honorable Mention OF: Jordan Brewer, Quincy Hamilton, Logan Cerny, Kenedy Corona, Zach Daniels, Ross Adolph, Marty Costes, Joey Loperfido, Alex McKenna, Scott Schreiber, Matthew Barefoot
    Honorable Mention P: Angel Macuare, Tyler Brown, AJ Blubaugh, Valente Bellozo, Tyler Guilfoil, Diosmerky Taveras, Rhett Kouba, Ryan Gusto, Carlos Calderon, Jonathan Sprinkle, Carlos Espinosa, Alimber Santa, Jon Olzcak, Ronel Blanco, Edinson Batista, Brett Conine, Christian Mejias, Jimmy Endersby, Jacob Coats, Jojanse Torres, Matt Ruppenthal, Nolan DeVos, Michael Knorr

    Overall the system took a step forward this year. The draft added 3-4 very high upside prospects and breakouts from Brown and Diaz bolstered the upper end, while the 2nd and 3rd tiers were a mixed bag. The system has excellent depth at C, OF, and P, but the middle infield depth is pretty lackluster. There's a big dropoff in pitching upside after Brown/Whitley but the depth is there and given Houston's track record with pitching dev I'm not concerned. I think this system is 1-2 elite (Top 100 type) prospects away from being considered average to above average, but in the meantime should be ranked in the 16-22 range in MLB.
     
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  5. Marshall Bryant

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    I agree. But chasing count stats in the end diminished his crazy rate stats from earlier in his career.
     
  6. Buck Turgidson

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    Thanks for all the postings and info this season.
     
  7. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I really enjoy Clutchfans Astros forums and this thread in particular. Obviously I spend a lot of time following the Astros minor leagues and this is the best message board I’ve found for that on the entire internet; there are some really knowledgeable posters here. Thanks to @tellitlikeitis for keeping these threads going every year.
     
  8. the shark

    the shark Member

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    What would be your guesstimate on Gilbert reaching the show? '24?
     
  9. Snake Diggit

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    Ideally he will reach AA and get 200+ pa there next season, putting him in position to be up sometime in 2024. Of course some of that will depend on if there’s a spot for him. But his trajectory (along with a few other OF prospects) is why I think whatever move they make in the OF this offseason will be short term (1-2yrs); it’s one reason a guy like Brantley makes sense as a patch.
     
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  10. prospecthugger

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    Teddy: Thoughts on Quincy Hamilton?

    Eric A Longenhagen: Really liked him as an older guy coming out of Wright St (and Loperfido fwiw), has some vulnerability to fastballs at top of zone that may be exploited with more exposure to upper levels but he’s definitely a prospect now
     
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  11. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I think your order of guys is good for the 1st 16 (after 16 is hard to judge where to place guys and I don't have an opinion). I'd have Dubin higher on the list as I expect even as a reliever he's going to be more valuable than 4-5 guys listed ahead of him (though your placement will likely match the publications).

    I'm going to guess Astros end up around 25th on FanGraphs preseason board. I expect they will have Brown at least a FV60. I doubt anyone else according to them is a FV50 or up to start the season (Lee probably best bet depending on what they think of his power surge). Though, it probably won't take Gilbert long to be a FV50 if he produces. I doubt Leon and Diaz will ever make a Top 100 (If they produce well enough to change their opinion, they will be called up and not be a prospect by their next ranking).
     
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  12. Snake Diggit

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    Yeah I do think I probably have Dubin too low.

    Guys who I think could end next season on Top 100 lists:
    Gilbert: 850+ ops at 150+ pa in AA would get him there
    Melton: 850+ ops at 150+ pa in AA by seasons end, while looking adequate in CF
    Barber: 900+ ops across 400+ AA PA would do it
    Clifford: 1000+ ops across A/A+ would probably do it
    Gomez: would have to be in Fayetteville early in the season and have success

    It wouldn’t shock me if Leon stays down but hits well enough to be on some mid season lists.

    I don’t see any pitchers that could make that kind of jump. Maybe if Gordon or Taylor does really really well in AA. Ullola, Santos, and Santa have the stuff but it’s just so unlikely they get the innings at the right level to draw that kind of attention.
     
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  13. Screaming Fist

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    Looking back, Colton Gordon had a ridiculously good year. With a minimum 50 IP, he led the org in ERA, BB/9, and SO/BB. Imagine if he could find a few more ticks in the big frame?

    will be interested in seeing how he performs in the AFL.
     
  14. Marshall Bryant

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    Just wondering:

    The latest Prospect List does not include Hensley anymore. Has he graduated or has he been replaced?

    I see Colton Gordan slides in at 24 with everyone from 12 to 24 moving up one.
     
    #2634 Marshall Bryant, Oct 9, 2022
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2022
  15. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    Link
     
  16. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Zach Daniels, HOU (23): Daniels recently hit the longest home run of the 2022 AFL season – a 481-foot moonball to center field. It was his first home run in an otherwise poor showing in Arizona. He’s addressed his biggest demon – a sky-high strikeout rate – by punching out just five times in 26 plate appearances. However, he’s batting only .130/.231/.304. Power hitters of this profile tend to be volatile.

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/10/big-hype-prospects-merrill-marte-davis-yorke-winn.html
     
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  17. Buck Turgidson

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    He also missed the first 2 weeks with a wrist injury
     
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  18. vince

    vince Member

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    You never disappoint. I’m bookmarking this, because it’s a great analysis and perfect Cliff notes for who’s in our pipelines.

    Im paraphrasing old school Jim Rome, but I’ll say it “Rack it”
     
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  19. vince

    vince Member

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    If Brantley wanted to do a 1 or 2 year deal, I’d say go for it. I think he will be a starter for the first year, but relegated to 4th OF the following year. I don’t think you can ever forego having a professional hitter make an opposing pitcher work and add to his pitch count. His leadership would be invaluable to the up and coming young OF poised for the 2023 and 2024 season.
     
  20. IdStrosfan

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    I think Brantley would be a great fit for this team.

    If the team signs him and a 1B that can hit 6th to protect Tucker this team will be great next season.

    Brantley 50%DH 50% LF vs RHP
    Alvarez DH vs LHP / 50% DH 50% LF vs RHP
    Chas LF vs LHP

    Brantley/Chas platoon and hit 7th
    CF hits 8th
    C hits 9th.
     
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