“Allocating” and “dividing” infers that the process needs to know how many wins the team actually had to then divide them up proportionally. It doesn’t. Win shares estimates how many wins an individual player adds by the formula it uses and like @Easy said is cumulative. A player with more minutes has more of an advantage than a player on a team with more actual wins. Wagner had comparable win shares on a 22 win team to some full time rotation guys on the 64 win suns team. Because it’s not about the actual wins. It’s about the stats that generally lead to more wins.
I like Jalen now after the second half improvement, so not sure why I'm catching strays. But since you brought me here...winshares is probably not the hill you want to choose to die on. You say it is because the Rockets were a tanking team and only won 20 games for the players to divide, so can't compare to players on 64 win teams. So how about compared to his own teammates, was Jalen the Rockets leader in winshare? Top 3? Top 5? No. Not even top 8, and that's with him playing the most minutes on the entire team. Jalen was one of the worst players in the entire league the first half of the year, that's why some of us were frustrated, especially when we passed up on a top ROY candidate. But his second half surge showed a lot of promise for his future, so I am at peace with him. But his overall numbers were still hurt by his poor start last year, as reflected by any stat, including winshare.
The most exciting part of Jalen is how drastically he improved over the course of the year, which is a huge positive for young players and projecting their future. However this can only be true if you can accept just how truely horrendous he was to start the year, juxtaposed with what he looked like at the end of the year. That's something his zealot fans want to rewrite, even though it's meant to support the outlook on Jalen.
I wanted him over mobley pre draft, and my view never changed regardless of how bad he was to start. 19 year old guards will always suck, there’s no shame in it. I think he will be a superstar though
I wanted Mobley, but thought Green could be a Beal, Lavine, Booker 25 ppg type, just thought Mobley would contribute more to winning. But with that said I didn't say anything bad about Green after we drafted him and was patient, until the 0-11 game. A man has his limits. Yeah I shat on him after that until the allstar break, but was encouraged with his improvement after the break. In hindsight I think my initial projection on Green will be right, and even if a prime Mobley contributes more to winning, the Rockets may have still made the right choice as long as Green reaches that. The Rockets at the time needed a franchise player, a face, and marketability more than marginally more long term winning.
I think we were right to not commit to too much long term contract value when we had no idea what we were going to rebuild around at that time. If the same situation happened today, they would probably happily get Allen but when it happened in context - why would you commit $100mil on a guy when you had little idea what the draft had in store for you. Hindsight is 20/20 and JA would be a great fit for us today but he isn't good enough to necessarily build a franchise around when you have no control of what draft pieces you would have access to in the moment we had to either pick or deny Allen. I think at the time the org probably gambled a bit on Oladipo's trade value over Allen's and probably thought Oladipo would be more valuable to a potential contender but of course then he got to Houston showed he clearly was a low efficiency unhealthy version of his old self and that was that....
Ya i believed that greens ceiling was higher then the beal/lavine types and i still do. If i thought mobley would lead to marginally more long term winning, i would trade Jalen for him in a heartbeat, however i believe more in Jalen's ceiling then in Mobley's.
It doesn't actually matter that he scales it to look like wins (because he absolutely did use team wins and games to scale the #s which why things like "reduce by .32" creep into the equation) because he's explicitly incorporating team success metrics that correlate with wins like D-Rating as part of d-win shares. Offense he uses a lot of team metrics too, though honestly the formula of points produced is so convoluted it's hard to figure out the impact. But my hunch is if you net out some factors of points produced and d rtng the spread aligns nicely with predicted record. The bottom line is that the overall effect is the same, and you're reduced to arguing that the best (or second best to mo Bamba) player on a bad team is good for 8th or 9th on a good team - basically players on teams that win get boosted by their teans metrics (as well as big man counting stats) and teams that are designed to lose get penalized - hence the name.
Team success is a component which is then adjusted to numerically align with wins. The net effect the same. The wins are shared. Less wins, less share.
I don't get it... why y'all acting like BSPN matters? We all know that 62 rank is bonkers, but it's BSPN... who cares?
Not winshares from last season. Unless you believe that 20 of the top 40 players in the league last year were Centers? Feel free to make that case - that Ja Morant is actually the 45th best player in the league etc and that Mitchell Robinson is all NBA and all of the silliness. And of course this is all in service to @astrosrule genius contention that Jalen Green is not even a top 300 player - basically a fringe D League level talent. Anyway Winshares and any stat that tries to measure team success is absolutely not going to do a good job of measuring individual players on tanking teams that are quite intentionally designed to be bad! I don't know why this is a controversial argument but i guess for some people it is, in order to... downgrade Jalen Green because.... this is a Rockets forum?
Talent and performance are very different. He was a 19 year old rookie guard. Those types of players will almost never be top 100 nba players as rookies, it’s borderline impossible. Where do you feel he ranked last season? I gave you win shares, BPM, RAPTOR, VORP. Do you feel those are all just wrong? And if so, what metrics do you believe do a decent job?
Any advanced stat is going to be hindered by the confounding factors of playing on a 21 win team. Spacing, ball movement, novice coaching, lack of defensive team communication etc. All these things will effect a player's advanced stats.
To each their own, but I enjoy watching film/skillsets, counting stats, and advanced stats all holistically. As well as understanding the flaws in all of them as others mentioned. Players get points for succeeding under pressure in the playoffs vs the regular season and I enjoy interviews to gauge a player's mental strength on how they think. I love the game though so others may be more casual fans, and that's cool as well.
