Carlos Correa to the Twins - 3 Years, $105 Million

He's doing the P. T. Barnham route to getting paid. There's a SUCKER born every minute. Also seems to be true of Owners. But there are only so many places for stupid in MLB. So far, 9 of the 30 have identified themselves as such.

In this case, a great, but not elite, player got a very favorable contract that should be reserved for a full time elite player. But I suspect more will see it in about 5 years. Until them, they act like children in a candy store instead of ADULTS.

 

7 of those 9 $300 MM (77%) players will in the playoffs this year, vs. 40% of all other players.

 

Yeah it’s beyond stupid to argue that 8 and 10 year deals given to 26-28 year olds are in any way, shape or form a problem. MLB used to be dumb. Now it’s not. Will run some numbers to show how wrong this perception is.

 

This is a test.

Thanks for the tip on the double space. Good to know.

 

I hope he does opt out . Even if we don’t sign him , thats potentially another good player that we can get .

I’d like to see us make a little run at him . 4 years 100 mil ?

lmao . I mean we can do player option .

I’d sign him and stick Pena at first or CF .. he’s got a good arm .

I was listening on the radio . Correa is only 3 years older . Pena is not as good . If he’s to continue as our SS he’s going to have to improve . I don’t care what the defensive stats say about him .. he’s average in my opinion. Been shaky at times .

With the bat ... he doesn’t have the OBP yet . On the positive side ... power is definitely there .

he could be a hell of a utility player or a primary 1b or CF that can backup almost anywhere .

sign Carlos to upgrade SS and move Pena to upgrade the other spot .

especially if you can’t bring back JV or sign TOR pitching

 

Ridiculous take.

If they offer Correa 4 yrs $100M his agent won't even show him the offer.

The thing that makes Pena a solid major leaguer is that he plays shortstop. At any other position he is decidedly below average

 

with Correa , yes

with Pena , he had the tools to play CF and that is a a premium defensive position . Idk if he would really be as good , but his arm is more than adequate .

at first base it’s a more extreme take , but Yuli has shown that having mad infield skills at first is an underrated asset . He’s made game saving plays with unusual frequency

could Pena translate and make routine plays too ?

hell , he’s 25 . But his power is super real . It’s not far out to think he hits 25 homers this year . With additional seasoning he could he hit 30 . That’s nothing to scoff at for either position and he’s on a rookie deal for a couple of years .

of course , he needs to get his walk / k ratio up .

another scenario is we need to rest altuve 40 games a year and Pena fills in at second .

it doesn’t have to be Correa , but sign another SS .

a 5% idea

 

Just what the Astros - and Clutchfans- need, another firstbaseman with a sub 700 OPS that can really scoop lol

 

Dude- he’s guaranteed 2/70. Why on earth would he opt out for 4/100? He’s 27 YO. Maybe if he was 36 he’d consider that switch. Maybe.

 

What's the breakdown by team?

 

Dodgers (1)
Mets (1)
Padres (2) (edit: I guess Tatis won't be in the playoffs, technically, but he's also not getting paid)
Phillies (1)
Yankees (2)

Non-Playoff:
Angels (1)
Rangers (1)

 

Here are your $300M Contracts in baseball history and how they are working out on a bang for your buck standpoint, and what is going to be required to make them break even or better for the team- along with the prognosis of getting there. Note- I'm going to unilaterally knock off 2.5 War for all required contracts that have 2020 as part of them. Players didn't get their full paycheck, can't earn full stats. Call that a whatever you want to call that.

Manny Machado- 10 years- 300M. 2019-2028- 26 YO at signing. WAR required to break even: 32.5
How It's going: Currently 30 years old, Machado has 6 years remaining on his deal. He's playing at a near MVP level this year, carrying the team to the playoffs as Tatis Jr. is out. As a Padre he has amassed 16.9 War. That means he has to get 15.6 WAR over the next 6 years (plus the rest of this year). That means, essentially, to turn the entire contract into break even he'd have to be given a 6 year $127M contract. As a 30 year old coming off a near MVP season. Anyone want to bet against this? Status- Big Win so far for Padres Looks like the contract will pay out.

Gerrit Cole- 9 years 324M. 2020-2028 terms of deal. 29 YO at signing. War Required: 35.5
How it's going: 4th in Cy Young, 2nd in Cy Young, Likely no CY young votes this year. All Star all 3 seasons. Their game 1 starter. Finished with MVP votings last year before ******** the bed in a 1 game playoff scenario. 10.5 WAR earned so far this season. That leaves him still "owing" the Yankees 25 War over the next 6 years. Projected deal to break even- 6 years $212M. Would he get that at literally just turned 32? I don't know. I strongly strongly suspect he would.
37 year old Max Scherzer got 3/130
Kevin Gausman at 31 got 5/110
Shitty Marcus Stroman at 31 got 3/71. The AAV on that deal would "only" be 35M per, which seems on the low side for a top 5 CY Young guy with no health issues, and guys are getting extended out into their 40's- even that don't have great health track records. Put it to you this way- no way the Yanks would cancel this contract today if they could.

G. Stanton- 2015-2027 13 Years/ 325M salary, 25 YO as he signed contract- 36 WAR required
How it's going: 23.3 War required. Stanton is 32 years old and on the back side of what- maybe a HOF career if he has a decent finish? This year he was an All Star, he's going to hit 30 HR's, he hits in the middle of the lineup, he's very feared, and he has little to negative Defensive value. He still owes the Yankees, if he's going to break even on his contract 5 years. To make that work that means he would have to be worth a 5 year 108M contract by the numbers going into his age 33 season. Closest comparisons from last years FA class:
Kris Bryant at 20 getting 7/182
Starling Marte at 33 getting 4/78
Kyle Schwarber at 29 getting 4/79?
I don't think Stanton would get that deal and I don't think he was another 12.7 WAR in him due to age and injuries. But, since he signed the deal he was a 3 time AS and won an MVP award and got votes another year for the MVP. If this is something pointed to as "bad deal- oh noes you will wreck yourself signing a 300M contract I laugh in your face. Awesome use of money? Nope. But not terrible either.
Put another way- the miss on this deal- if there is one, is cumulatively like signing Pedro Baez 2 more times.

C. Seager- 2022-2031. 10 years 325M. Age at signing- 27. 38 WAR Required
How It's going: 1 year in. He's going to be OPS of 120. He's going to finish around 4.0 war, which would mean that he's worth about $35M this year. I thought this was a dumb deal at the time. I thought Correa was worth more. I thought the Rangers shouldn't have been signing him. They fired their GM b/c he sucks this year. Maybe it will work out. He out earned his yearly salary this year- but if this deal is going to work out for them he is either going to need to put up some 6 or 7 WAR seasons which he never has, or WAR is going to have to go up to something like $12M per in his career. The Dodgers are the best organization in all of sports (college and pro- any sport) as far as being really smart and having unlimited FU money. They passed. They did it for a reason. Rangers are dumb. This is going to be a problem. I love it. He would have to get 9 years for 290M this offseason. Would he get it? I sort of don't think so. But it wouldn't be way off.

B. Harper- 2019-2031. 13 Years 330M. Age at signing 26 Years old 36.2 WAR required
How it's going: 4 years in and he's put up 14.3 WAR already, and the only reason it's that low is b/c he was injured (fluke- not something structural you'd worry about) for half the year. He's been a 2 time AS, he's won an MVP, and the Phillies are going to the playoffs where he will scare the **** out of people, for the first time in a while. He's got an OPS 50% better tahn league average and his WAR numbers would be higher if not being penalized for DH that he had to play with said injury. To break even for the rest of his contract he would owe the Phillies 9 years 180M. The Rockies paid a shitty Kris Bryant, who was a year older than Harper 7/188. There is literally not the slightest chance in hell Harper wouldn't command this deal on the open market. Trending toward big win.

F. Tatis. 2021-2034 14 Years 340M. 22 YO at signing. 40 War required
How it's going so far: 2 years in- 3rd in the MVP and didn't play an entire season and got a drug suspension. 29.8 WAR Required. So, that means today you would have to sign him to a 12/ 253M Contract as a 24 year old. IF he offered his services to the Astros at that price and we turned them down I would cancel my season tickets and perhaps think about fire bombing MMP just to be sure. I don't think anyone thinks he won't get there, but if he would have duplicated last years season this year he would already be something like 33% of the way to earning out. As it wasn't a FA deal it's not quite apples to apples- but remember- I'm arguing against the premise that "300M deals are stupid and kill teams"

F. LIndor- 2022-2013 10 Year and 341M. 40 WAR Required
How it's going so far- 1 year into the contract: On his way to a 6 WAR season, positive defensive value at SS, Mets going to the playoffs as a really strong team, and 27% better than the league offensively. He owes the Mets roughly 34 War. His number would thus be 9 Years and 289M. at 29 years old. Would the Mets do that deal this offseason? I really think so. That's 32M per year. That's 38 years old when it's up. The back end of that will be pretty lousy, but if he has another 4 years at 6 WAR per like he's doing this year that would leave him needing to make up 10 War in his twilight. Possible? Sure. Probable? Eh. I think he probably only breaks even on this contract if WAR ends up at 10M per win.

M. Betts- 2021-2032. 12 Years 365M. 27 YO at signing. 43 WAR Required
How it's going so far- 2 time all star. No MVP votes last year. 126 OPS plus. 140 OPS plus this year. Probably get some MVP votes this year. 10.5 or 11 WAR earned in the first 2 years. That would mean- at 29 years old he would be looking for a deal that is 10/272M as he still owes 32 WAR to them to break even. Would he get that this offseason? Absolutely. From a bunch of different clubs. I think the Dodgers would love to see another MVP out of him but if he's "merely" starting AS and 6 or 7 WAR guy for the next 5 years he breaks them even or earns them a little value and then they have a free roll at the back end of that contract. Can't imagine it doesn't work out for them.

M. Trout: 2019-2030. 12 years 426.5 M. Age at signing- 27 YO. 47.5 WAR Required.
How it's going: MVP, 5th in MVP, AS, AS his years. The all star bid in 2021 was undeserved IMO as although he was awesome he only played 36 games. That injury was weird and I have no idea what was going on. Not super healthy this year. Still God like when he's playing. Has earned 16.8 WAR so far, meaning that he owes the Angels 30.7 War still. He's 31 Years old this offseason. If he was a FA do you think he'd have a problem getting a 8/261M deal? No, me either. OK- so it hasn't worked out for Anaheim. Some of the dumber amongst you will claim its b/c they are paying one guy too much. Bullshit. It hasn't worked out b/c they are dumb as **** and shitty at constructing a roster and drafting and developing. There's like 18 guys making 29M plus a year (Jose Altuve at that number). 12 of them are on playoff teams. IF you edit out the dipshit Angels that's 16 guys with 12 playoff teams. Mike Trout isn't the problem. to say he is is stupid.

C. Correa: 28 years old and 15 days entering this offseason. Coming off a 5 WAR season. 7.2 WAR last year. healthy for the last 3 season. HOF trajectory. He wanted 300M last year. He got 35M instead for 1 year. That would mean he needs to do 9/265M as a 28 year old. That would mean he'd have to put up 31 WAR to be worth it. Call it 4 years of prime left. He's been averaging 5 WAR per season. No reason to believe he wont average 5 the next 4 years in his prime. That's 20 WAR. That would mean he'd still owe whoever signs him 11 WAR and have 5 years to do it. The bet then becomes- do you think Carlos Correa, entering his 32 YO season is likely to be a league average starter for the next 5 years, or have a couple AS type seasons in him. You might need even less than that from him if he puts up an actual MVP discussion level season like he did in 2021 and 2017.

I bet he gets his money.

 

Thank you for the time and work you put in.

Am I correct that you are determining 1 WAR for every $8.5M as the value and "break even" point?

I want to post a version of this from a different perspective but won't have time till tomorrow.

Hopefully I get to it.

 

Yes I am. WAR (for FA) will probably go up in cost this decade (some have it at 10M) so this is worst case scenario from a team perspective.
My bet is the Seager deal sucks, Coke and Giancarlo miss by a little but still decent contracts, Manny and Bryce are winners for the team, Lindor misses but they don’t regret it as he comes close and they get some fantastic prime years, Trout and Betts turn out to be big wins for the club. You shouldn’t count Tatis as he was in his first year and they were buying out a ton of club control but I bet he gets there too.

 

I doubt teams will put much stock into MIN record when deciding what to offer CC…maybe his advanced stats are really good, but his traditional stat line this year has been good but not like elite. Solid but underwhelming. I love Carlos, all Stros fan should…but from a far, I can’t help but wonder what happens this off-season. Curious what the odds are. Maybe he’s favored for MIN return? I could see BAL or another up and coming team make a run, but I don’t know if he exactly played himself into a 300mm contract this off-season (which is wild since Seager got one)…CC arguably *should* get one but I just don’t see where that offer is going to materialize.

 

Teams that might be looking to spend big money at SS:
Braves, Red Sox, Giants, Dodgers, Phillies, Cubs, Orioles. NOw, lots of those teams have good players at SS that are in their walk years.
Whats interesting for Correa this year is he’s tops in wRC plus, 2nd in wOBA and tops (I think) in OPS plus. He’s got an 834 ops going. He’s 9th on WAR because his defensive numbers are barely in the positive. I wonder if that’s noise or if that’s a difference in how HOU has their guys deployed v how the Twins do it.
Finally- he’s at -3.7 runs in baserunning. Peña is at positive 3.7. That difference makes up almost 2/3 of a win for Peña - who is sitting on 3.0 WAR to Carlos 4.1.
I don’t know how much the fielding stats should be trusted year to year (the people who came up with them say they want 3 year sample size group. Correa is amongst the best offensive SS in baseball and he’s a platinum glove winner in his prime. I’m not sure why Arlington gave Segar that deal instead of CC. I think he gets paid, but who knows for sure.

 

At this point I think it’s certain Correa gets $200M+ and very very likely he can find a team willing to offer $250M. Whether or not he gets $300M, time will tell.

 

The 300 million mark seems unlikely, at least not on a 10 year deal. Teams give out the big contracts for the prime years and tolerate the post 34 seasons. He punted on one of his prime seasons to re-roll. While he hasn't been bad by any stretch this season, he failed to improve upon last season offensively and has more or less set in stone what type of hitter he is. Extremely good for a SS, but short of being a proper middle of the order stud that we all thought he could be. A lot of his value now is tied to being an amazing SS, and defensive range is the first thing to go with age.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Will he just take whatever the best deal is or will he roll the dice again if he doesn't get 300. I doubt he has trouble getting 250, particularly if he's willing to do it over 9 or 10 seasons. All it takes is one desperate team like the Rangers did with Seager, so I don't think 300 is completely off the table.

Will watching the playoffs from his couch play into his decision or does he just take the highest bid?

 

If he gets 9/265 he can say he got his 300M deal, just in a convoluted way. I’d argue the 9/265 is worse for a team than giving him 10/300M last year would have been, because early prime years don’t come around often for
Big ticket FA, but whatever. 6/200 v 9 or 10/265 would be an interesting decision point for him. 6 would put him as a FA again at 33, and it’s certainly not inconceivable to think he could get 65M at that time in his life- especially if he prioritizes pull side HR power as opposed to a full field approach like he does now.
it will be fascinating. Except it kind of won’t I guess as he won’t opt out, I don’t imagine, without a deal lined up unless he’s stupid, and I don’t think this agency is stupid.

 

My opinion is that a player in his position should take the most guaranteed money he is offered. There can be some allowances for city/winning and opt-outs, but generally he needs to secure the biggest bag he can get.

He has already played the card to bet on himself. Now he is coming off a good year but is a year older; his value is not going to get higher from here on out.