I dunno what they will do but Crane supposedly likes Dusty more than Jimmy if you believe the talk around the team.
Tucker batting first is ridiculous on so many levels. Yeah, let’s put our best rbi guy batting in front of our worst two OBA. Even Dusty isn’t that dense.
The batting order I think depends on who is catching, etc. I do personally believe that Mancini and his 110 OPS+ needs to be the starting first baseman and not Gurriel and his shameful 86 OPS+. Mancini hasn't been a world beater with the Astros but he is better than Gurriel at this point, who has shown nothing all year. I am just assuming that Maldonado is going to start at least half the playoff games because of Verlander and a couple of other pitchers insisting on it. I don't mind Maldonado against lefties actually. As for Pena, he isn't fantastic, but the question is what hitter do you think he is going forward. He was a well above average hitter the first two months of the season, then was garbage for two months and is above average again this month. Is it because he has protection in front of him? If he is hitting with an OPS+ of 105-110 the rest of the way in the 2nd spot, then I would keep him there. Altuve Pena Bregman Alvarez Tucker Mancini Diaz McCormick Maldonado
But you fail to address that baseball is very mental dependent. If Jeremy feels like and thinks he does better hitting #2 and the results bear that out - then it is a benefit to put him there. I never wanted him hitting second. I always wanted him 8/9th. But SCOREBOARD You don't mess with what's working. Same thing with Dusty. His lineups make me crazy But it would be foolish to not bring him back if the team wins the World Series. Change is its own problem. Sometimes everything could point to changing and it still hurts the outcome.
Perfect. If Pena regresses while betting second then move him. OBA of 350 with power and speed is perfect in the two spot. It’s incredible to me that he was ever moved. His stats and the team stats when he is batting second is pretty compelling, but lets not get in the way of Dusty’s “intuition”. In the end, I don’t care where anyone hits if we win the World Series, but if we lose and it’s because of offense like last year then Dusty most go. We have one of the best pitching staffs of all time.
You fail to recognize that randomness happens. Maybe Pena has a mental thing and is better at the 2nd spot. Maybe it is April, May, and September that grant Pena hitting ability and he should just not be played in June-August. He's a slightly better No. 8 hitter than a No. 2 hitter so maybe he should bat there. What mental thing grants Pena the right frame of mind to hit well both in the second and eighth spots, but not elsewhere except the 7th spot (average there)? Pena only can hit RHPs at home, and can only hit LHPs on the road. Maybe Pena is the one in 20 players (or whatever that ratio is) that batting second really helps him. However, assuming every 1 in 20 odds is the 1 that actually matters will cause 19 mistakes for every time being right. Baseball isn't perfect. I understand that there is a lot of wackiness and I will be wrong a lot. I just try to pick the side with the best odds. Until we have a lot more data on Pena, I'm going to assume he is a young hitter that is going to have splits all over the place. An average hitter hitting 30% better than his average performance at one of the batting spots is very normal (caveat: batting at multiple spots in the order).
I agree with this in general terms, although there are some hitters that benefit from slotting in the batting order. For example they are fast ball hitters and are put in a spot where they will get more fastballs. The only reason I am okay with Pena at #2 is that the Astros are shot at the tail end of their line up, and if Pena maintains an OPS+ of 110 the rest of the year, it isn't worth fooling with it. Unfortunately the Astros are clearly a bat short of what they should have with Brantley out for the year and Yuli turning into a pumpkin.
They need to see which Diaz they get going forward. He should let Altuve DH some and play second as well. Diaz is having a really strong defensive year and Altuve really isn't.
I agree there are hitters that the order affects, but for the most part it isn't a big effect and affects significantly less than 50% of the hitters (i.e., making decisions on a player being normal will be right a lot more than wrong). If Pena is worth batting second, it is likely be because he's made adjustments and is a good hitter regardless of where he bats (i.e., I'd be okay with Pena batting 2nd if his wRC+ is 110 overall going forward). I'd bat Altuve/Alvarez/Bregman/Tucker one through 4 in some order. If a person doesn't like the No. 2 hitter having less RBI opportunities, I'd rather have one of McCormick/Pena/Vasquez/Mancini bat 9th than sub one of them in No. 2.
If we win the WS I'm ok with Dusty coming back. If we don't, Dusty ain't ever leaving and he's Bobby Cox and we're the 90's Braves with our only title because we faced someone more inept than Dusty, Dave Roberts. Of course I like our chances if we face the Dodgers.
We still need another bat to offset Yuli and Maldy. The offense might really struggle in the playoffs against good pitching. This will certainly be true with Yuli batting 2nd or 5th. I don’t even like him batting 6th.
