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Synchronicity (or why the Rockets should be a dynasty)

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by MacBeth, Jul 5, 2004.

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  1. MacBeth

    MacBeth Member

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    There have been different ways to build a dynasty, none of them easy, but the established modern method in basketball has been to acquire, through whatever means, two superstars, fill in the supporting cast with role players, and ride it as long as it lasts. There are plenty of discussions on the role player aspect, and even some on whether Yao and McGrady qualify, or will, as superstars, but I wanted to look at the equally important thirs aspect: as long as it lasts.


    Almost every dynasty has a natural course; an assembling, a rise together, a prime, and a fall. How long each of these lasts depends on a few factors;competition, health, addition of other players, etc., but most particularly on the duration of the concurrent primes of the superstars in question. Few teams in history have been able to pull of a Wooden or a Walsh; maintain elite level while shuffling primary players, and for most others it is a finite period. So, with Yao and T-Mac involved, I thought I'd look at recent basketball dynasties built around 2 stars, and see if I could use history to arrive at some sort of generality about how long our window of opportunity will last.


    I sampled the past 4 dynasties built around 2 core superstars. I left out the Lakers of the 80's, as they had 3 key stars, and as KAJ's role changed vastly over their period of continued success, do in no small part to the presence of their 3rd star, James Worthy. Now while this is far too small of a sample for a scientific conclusion, a quick look at the 8 players involved in these powerhouse teams revealed a few things:

    * Almost without exception, players had entered their prime, irresepctive of age, by their 4th season. This was universal for the 2nd stars.

    * Without exception, the players involved had seen their primes end between the ages of 32 and 34.

    All of the championships won by teams built on those two stars occurred during the period of concurrent primes of the two star players.


    1) With all due apologies to DJ and the Chief, the Celtics championship runs during the 80s rested squarely on the shoulders of Larry Bird and Kevin McHale. Bird was born in 1956, and McHale's prime began in his 4th season, 83-84. That left them a dynasty window of 8 years, during which the Celtics won 2 rings and were in several more Finals. ( * Note, the Celts also won in 80-81, McHale's rookie year, but KH was not a priomary player that year.) Were it not for the presence of a 3 star Dynansty, Boston would likely have won several more.

    2) The Nasty Boys were very deep, and had several players who played important roles, but their championship aspirations ran as far as their backcourt of Thomas and Dumars could carry them. Isiah was born in 1961, and Dumars entered his prime in his 4th season, giving the Pistons an effective dynasty window of 8 years. During that period they won 2 rings, and played in other ampionship and especially Conference championship seires.

    3) The Chicago Bulls dyansty was clearly driven by the two horse chariot of Jordan and Pippen. Jordan was born in 1963, and Pippen's prime began in his 3rd year, leaving a dynastic window of opportunity of about an astounding 12 years ( 13 minus the retirement year). During that stretch the Bulls won 6 rings.

    4) The current L.A. Lakers, as we all know, are powered by the Shaq and Kobe show. O'Neal was born in 1972, and Bryant's prime began in his 3rd season, leaving them with a dynasty window of about 10 years, depending upon whether last year's decline was the beginning of the end for Shaq, or whther he has another prime year or so left in him. During that period the Lakers won three rings, and lost out in another Finals.


    Based on the pattern seen in these teams, let's look at the Rockets. Assuming that T-Mac and Yao do/will qualify as superstars, and assuming that neither health nor free agency breaks up the tandem, if we say that Yao's prime will begin in his 4th year ( erring on the side of later, as his unique experience might prolong development) and being conservative about McGrady's prime, and capping it at 32...that leaves a dynasty window for the Rockets of about 7 years. If we say that Yao's prime, propelled by the lack of centers, begins next year, and we stretch McGrady's prime to the age of 34, the outside number, that leaves a window of 10 years for a dynasty. A decade, if you will.

    Think about that. At the least we should have runs like the Pistons and Celtics, at best somewhere between the Lakers and Bulls.

    Now, a note of caution. Using this theorum, two other teams jump out during this current period has having far and away greater dynastic windows than the Rockets: the O'Neal/Hardaway magic and the Carter/McGrady Raptors who died in infancy, and others in the recent past, most notably the Jazz we loved to hate whose two stars allowed an extremely long window they were never able to exploit. So nothing is a given. But based on the numbers, and considering that one of our 2 stars plays the position most tied to winning championsips at a time when there are precious few who can even be considered decent, and our odds look much better.

    Either way, all things being equal, we have a 7 to 10 year run ahead of us which is full of opportunity, full of being a contender each and every year...and that's gonna be a hell of a long time to enjoy our team.
     
    #1 MacBeth, Jul 5, 2004
  2. yipengzhao

    yipengzhao Member

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    synchronicity -- a movie starring MacBeth and Andie MacDowell, open September 2004, call for your advanced tickets today.
     
    #2 yipengzhao, Jul 5, 2004
  3. AroundTheWorld

    AroundTheWorld Member

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    [​IMG]
     
    #3 AroundTheWorld, Jul 5, 2004
  4. ima_drummer2k

    ima_drummer2k Member

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    [​IMG]
     
    #4 ima_drummer2k, Jul 5, 2004
  5. junshao

    junshao Member

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    Macbeth, enjoyed your story/analysis as always. Sometimes I wonder though, in this day and age, whether 2 stars are enough, quite a few teams now have three stars...well, 2 and 1/2 in some cases, teams like, Dallas, TimberWolves, Detroit(I believe they do have stars, just bluecollar typed stars, with lower profile), Spurs, Kings etc...
     
    #5 junshao, Jul 5, 2004
  6. AzCkR

    AzCkR Member

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    Yao and TMac are superstars though, not just stars. You could make an arguement that both are the best./most dominating players at their respecitve positions, and if not the best many would agree they're the second best. The other teams you mentioned have good players, but they only have one true superstar if that.
     
    #6 AzCkR, Jul 5, 2004
  7. Dubious

    Dubious Member

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    Interesting thesis, inspiring for Rocket fans but perhaps flawed in the sense that players on championship teams inherently receive the notoriety that elevates their perceived status above their peers of equal abilities. Also, teams featuring two star players that do not reach championship heights are forgotten in the dustbin of NBA history. Though you have mentioned only a couple there are surley more two star teams that have failed than suceeded.

    Another point is that you along with many others seem to have anointed Yao with supoerstar status. We hope he will be am NBA superstar, he appears to have the skills to be an NBA superstar but actually achieving stardom requires some accomplishment and I would submit Yao has yet to accomplish anything yet. T-Mac atleast has his scoring records.

    So, is Ralph Sampson a superstar? He showed all the potential Yao does, He played on team that competed for championships but didn't win one. If he had won one would he be a superstar.
    I think he would.
     
    #7 Dubious, Jul 5, 2004
  8. Man

    Man Member

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    Hmm..10 years sounds good! Tmac and Yao Dynasty! Thanks great post
     
    #8 Man, Jul 5, 2004
  9. RocketForever

    RocketForever Member

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    Teaming up a 23 years old best young center in the league and a 25 years old scoring champ is amazing. We are blessed with having two superstars at this early in their careers. :)
     
    #9 RocketForever, Jul 5, 2004
  10. RIET

    RIET Member

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    Voiceover by Glenn Close.
     
    #10 RIET, Jul 5, 2004
  11. dharocks

    dharocks Member

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    Let's look at what our competition looks to be the next few years...

    Phoenix: With Amare, Joe Johnson, Marion, and Nash, they'll be formidable, especially if they gel quickly. But with Nash thirty, and Amare and JJ both likely requiring bigger contracts than the Suns can afford, their window might close before it truly opens.

    San Antonio: Where there is Tim Duncan, there are 55 wins. Tony Parker is a stud, and they'll be set if they can resign Ginobili. And if all else fails, TD can suffer a season ending "injury" and they can bring in a superstar via the draft.

    Minnesota: KG is a superstar, and it looks like McHale is commited to surrounding him with talent. They should bring in serviceable replacements for Sam and Spree once they start to fade.

    Denver: If Nene and Skita develop, the Nuggets are gonna be real, real good. They'll at least be respectable with Camby, Miller, and 'Melo. If they keep Rodney White and he becomes a player, it's an added bonus.

    Cleveland: LeBron is all they need. Boozer is solid. Luke Jackson is gonna be something special. Cleveland's future is bright.

    That's it.

    Everyone else, is fading, I think. Dallas is mortgaging its future if they trade Dirk for Shaq. Kobe will find that it's not as easy to win in LA without the Diesel. I like our chances.
     
    #11 dharocks, Jul 5, 2004
  12. catoinstitute

    catoinstitute Member

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    I think you're forgetting about Miami. The Heat will become an Eastern powerhouse in the next couple of years. It's a lot of young talent that did incredibly well. They just need to be able to win on the road.
     
    #12 catoinstitute, Jul 5, 2004
  13. akuma

    akuma Member

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    i don't see how the Chicago bulls had a 12 year window. also the retirement year was almost 2 years. Jordan was 21 when he entered the league in '84. Pippen followed 3 years later in the '87-88 season. let's say Pippen entered his prime in '89-90 (although he didn't even make the all NBA third team - basically not even a top 25 player in the NBA), the second consecutive year they went to the eastern conference finals against Detroit. after that, the Bulls went on to win every year the two were together a full season. basically 6 titles out of a 7 year window. 8 if you include the '94-95 season. so even assuming Jordan never retired until last year and stayed with the Bulls along with Pippen the dynastic window would have been at most 10 years. Jordan would have been 37 in the 99-00 finals and Pippen 34. but having watched Pippen in the Blazers/Lakers series in 2000, he was nowhere near his prime, defensively and offensively. Jordan made yet another comeback in 2001 and looked at least 4 years out of his prime. however, Jordan was so good, he could make the all NBA 1st team even when he wasn't in his prime.

    also, the Celtics did not have an 8 year window. it was more like 6. 1983-84 to 1987-88 and 1989-90. Bird was a shadow of himself after that season. Dumars is not a superstar, and Isaiah had a relatively short prime. the recent Lakers dynastic window was/is only 5-6 years. by the time Kobe reached his prime, Shaq was already 28.

    anyway, the Rockets appear that they may have a TRUE window of about 10 straight years. Yao Ming may actually become the greater superstar and he is only 23. imagine Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar actually having 10 prime years together instead of 5 (incidentally, James Worthy is the most overrated of the 50 greatest players of all time. in his whole career, he only has 2 selections to the All NBA third team, not a single selection to an NBA all defensive team, and a career rebounding average of 5.1 for a 6-9 forward. however, his FG average is impressive). or if Dr. J and Moses Malone had more than one prime year together. i suspect that Yao and TMac may one day retire with over 10 all NBA first team selections each. i don't think any team has ever had 2 players selected for the first team more than 3 times. the recent Lakers have done it 3 times as have Red Auerbach's Celtics. Boston once had 3 players (Bob Cousy, Bill Sharman, and Bill Russell) selected in 1959.
     
    #13 akuma, Jul 5, 2004
  14. IROC it

    IROC it Member

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    I love the "Bullwinkle & Rocky Show" style thread title.


    And I hope this latest experiment becomes a dynasty.
     
    #14 IROC it, Jul 5, 2004
  15. rockets-#1

    rockets-#1 Member

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    I knew the main point of this thread was the case when we got T-Mac. I've been telling people that the Rockets were going to win at least 3 titles and probably more in the next decade. Those were my exact words. We definitely have the time, and these Rockets are going to accomplish something. It's a great time to be a Rockets fan.
     
    #15 rockets-#1, Jul 5, 2004
  16. Hmm

    Hmm Member

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    I agree Yao has yet to accomplish anything to call him a "superstar". But, I think most people call him so, due in part to him being the 2nd best center in the league on the verge of being the best, once Shaq is out. As far as any of us can tell, there's no center in the league that can really challenge Yao other than Shaq on the offensive and defensive end overall.
     
    #16 Hmm, Jul 5, 2004
  17. MacBeth

    MacBeth Member

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    Yeah, but in the cases examined, with the possible excpetion of Dumars ( and , all around, I might beg to differ) we're talking about 2 of the 6 or 7 best players in the game ( with yao, we're projecting). That's the difference.
     
    #17 MacBeth, Jul 5, 2004
  18. MacBeth

    MacBeth Member

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    Agree with the first premise, although I was operating under the assumption that we're dealing with actual vs. perceived superstar status. But, yes, I agree with your point, and was, in fact, arguing it before this Finals with someone who said you had to have one of the 3 ( I think?) best players to win.

    Re: yao, I disagree, and as mentioned this was projecting Yao to attain his prime in 2 more years. Add to that the fact that the 5 spot is as weak as it's ever been, and I think it's a solid hypothetical.

    I thought about including Ralph, but he didn't blow out his chance like Penny did, but rather worse down in what might be seen as an inevitable process, hence it can't be counted as a career projection.
     
    #18 MacBeth, Jul 5, 2004
  19. aghast

    aghast Member

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    I generally admire your basketball (and political) takes, but on this one I question your underlying premise. You assume continued health, which in this case I think may be overreaching. McGrady, at a decidedly early age, already has a history of back trouble. And Yao is 7’6” and weighs more than 300 pounds. The list of NBA colossuses whose knees and feet lasted for a decade is a relatively short one. Kareem was around forever, but he was a relative toothpick. Shaq is a shadow of what he once was, and he’s more the exception than the rule.

    Thus, I think the comparison to Bird and McHale (although I think that was more of a triumvirate than Holy Two, including a Parrishioner) may be apt. But, realistically, for the Rockets it will soon be the late 80’s/early 90’s Celtics: the trick-back version of Bird, and the post-foot-injury McHale. Much as I hope I’m wrong, I think seven to ten years may be overstating the window.

    I think the realistic outcome in five-seven years’ time is an immobile Eaton/Sabonis-type manning the middle (I would have loved to see a healthy, early-twenties Sabonis play, by the way), and a superstar talent who’s always lying on the floor during timeouts, living off cortisone shots. My cynical two cents.
     
    #19 aghast, Jul 5, 2004
  20. MacBeth

    MacBeth Member

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    Health is a variable, certainly, but I was premising this on what we do know now, as opposed to what we migh suppose could happen. I didn't state that health would be a given, but merely proposed that this is the projection if it doesn't alter our path. That was why I included the contrary examples..to point out that it's not a certainty, for a few reasons.


    That said, I think it's a stretch to make medical projections/conclusions about people due to the health records of people with some physical similarities. For one thing, it's relative, as we know, people are growing larger all the time, especially at the extreme. Kareem may have been a toothpick by modern standards, but not by his, and one of the reasons a player with a similar build to KAJ, Sampson, is said to have suffered wear and tear was because he was too slender...

    It might raise a flag, but I don't think it comes anywhere near lowering our realistic expectations. Yao has no history of health issues, and unlike many larger players, is perfectly proportional.
     
    #20 MacBeth, Jul 5, 2004
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