A quick glance around the league at the dollar mark for 15M contracts would put his talent level head and shoulders above others in the same earnings bracket. It would be an easy contract to move even if he continues to have similar outbursts. Absolute worst case scenario the dead money would be a blip on the cap figure when it spikes to 175M per team if the kid completely implodes. What did you think about the RJ BArret extension? Are you ready to pay Scooter that number if he has a similar statistical season with no behaviour issues? If Im being totally honest Im not, but the precedent is being set every day by other players around the league. Its not a blank check with KPJ for me I'll make that clear. I actually AM trying to find the best value for the team.
For the record, I was not the one who brought up Artest. I think Knicks were desperate and made huge contract mistakes with both Brunson and RJ Barrett and both of those players are arguably more proven in actually big games than KPJ.
Agreed, but whether we like it or not KPJs agent will walk into the meeting with all of these newly signed contracts and expect some sort of relative compensation after deducting the "behaviour" demerit from the equation. Give him another year to "prove it" and if he explodes as a star level guy then its not as empathetic a signing as giving him an extension NOW would be and believing in him enough to offer him the benefit of the doubt. "Hometown discount" goes out the window for "F you pay me" type conversations. Usually how prove it deals go. 15Ms per year is great value for the player. Incentivize the beejesus out of the contract if necessary, but the baseline number is right in line for the production when compared across the league. 15 may even be too low the longer you wait.
I am not unwilling to give him $15M if I was Stone, I just don't see it as "great value" for an inefficient scorer with poor playmaking tendencies and even poorer behavioral tendencies. That's not to say I don't think he can improve in those areas, just that he hasn't shown he has YET. Ultimately, that's the line that separates us. I am fine with waiting now and then paying a lot more after he proves himself. If I am signing him before that, it will not be for more than $15M.
I wouldn't go higher than 12m if we are signing him now......2 years guaranteed, third year team option. 36m..... Anything in that neighborhood ok, anything more - let's go the wait and see route. And you are right if he breaks up with his girl, it might cause a ticking time bomb explosion, but that is true of every player TBH, dealing with emotions in a mature manner is exactly what he has to learn to navigate. I really like that we signed Lionel Hollins, he should sit KPJ down and tell him....I am going to be hard on you, not because it is personal, but because it is going to unlock your potential - Tough love.....to set expectations and the Rockets should test that this year....to find out if KPJ is actually getting more stable or not....... DD
Interesting article that takes a metrics based approach to a possible extension and uses the RJ Barret overpay as an outlier, but a relative subject to KPJ. Author thinks that 11-14M per season is "fair" in regards to output. It doesnt account for the behaviour issues though.
Which is absolutely in line with my $10-12.5M range that I mentioned after factoring in behavioral issues.
Its delusional to think you can get KPJ for 12m. 18m-20m is a team discount. He will command 25m and get that or more if he improves even 10% in assists and to%. Ignoring the salary cap expansion and other contracts being handed out is complete foolishness. I expect there to be an extension in the 20m area before the end of pre-season, unless he shows up out of shape or with an attitude (which he won’t).
How much I think he should be paid is irrelevant. I'll let the Rockets and KPJ figure that out, which I am sure they will.
I agree, R J Barrett is a SG/SF who registered a 14.9 Ast% SF's use to be all the rage.....now it's combo guards who can pass some. KPj 30.7 Ast%
Delusional thinking. What he has shown on the court will get him 12-15 without any attitude issues. He has really not shown much on the court which is what gets you paid. If a team is willing to throw out 25 mm a year it would be based on "potential" and nothing tangible. Porter will be due for a big contract if he can significant improve his efficiency this year, if he doesn't he can't even sell that potential card anymore. The last player that was paid big money based on mediocre on court performance and "potential" was Wiggins. I guess RJ counts too. Let's see how that contract ages. I have always said, Porters attitude is secondary to his on court performance. If he's a superstar, he can throw million hissy fits and he will still get paid. However if he's mediocre on top of the attitude problem no one will be interested.
538s 2022/2023 Player Projections dropped yesterday. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-player-projections/kevin-porter-jr/ Based on production/projected production they have KPJ worth 5 years ~71.2 million or about 14.25 million per year.
The best way to get overpaid in the NBA is to be a mediocre top-five pick or be a Klutch client on a LeBron’s team. In light of Barrett’s extension, the Rockets should stick to their price, and Porter should increase his. While this doesn’t help come to any resolution, it is the best decision for both parties. Porter should bet on himself because the upside just grew, and the Rockets should wait and see if it pays off. Patience is a virtue, and while the Knicks clearly don’t think so, the Rockets have two decades of evidence to suggest that following the Knicks' lead is rarely a winning strategy.
Risk vs reward. If some guys only think he's worth between 9-11Ms per year NOW they will NEVER support anything above 20 regardless of play. Scooter could make the All Star team this year and he would still have this fanbase vexxed. I always buy low and sell high. Its not Rocket science!
If you are an opportunistic investor, I doubt that you ALWAYS buy low and sell high. Nobody does. If it's that easy, a lot more people would be rich. You win some and you lose some. Those who are successful win more than lose because they understand how to gauge risk and reward. This thread goes back and forth. The pro-KPJ camp are certain that the guy will be a star. So they think giving him a somewhat cheaper contract now is buying low. The doubters camp think that the guy is clearly not there yet. He may or may not improve and nobody really knows. So giving him a large contract now is a high risk. I don't think anybody is against giving him an extremely team friendly lowball contract. It's not really the contention. The problem lies in how much you are willing to give him NOW instead wait for the RFA market. Let's say if you give him 15M per year guaranteed for more than two years now, do you think you are buying "low"? What do you think is the "high" if he does pan out?
