Carlos Correa to the Twins - 3 Years, $105 Million

The contract for Lindor 10/$341M is also a good comp for him, though Lindor didn't start being injured until after he signed the deal. Correa should expect a contract similar to those guys. I wouldn't want the Astros to pay it, but that is because FA is generally overpriced and I prefer the team have flexibility.

I'm guessing Swanson is more likely target for those teams.

 

I think Baltimore just makes too much sense to not happen.

1) young team on verge of competing

2) need a SS and proven veteran to help them make the next step.

3) Have had much higher payrolls in the past and history of big FA signings.

4) fan base starved for a winner

5) front office run by former Luhnow Astro guys.

 

That is true, Baltimore would be a great fit. Somewhat similar to Minnesota signing Correa this year.

 

I didn't appreciate how bad of a defender Corey Seager is til we played the Rangers this year. Man, he has no business playing SS.

 

All true, but the #2 prospect in all of baseball is a Baltimore SS

It's probably more likely they make a big spending splash at another position

 

He will be an oriole.

 

They are going to stick to their plan. There will be no big free agent signings. Payroll will remain low till the plan is showing good results, then it will move up to moderate. Fan base feelings will change nothing. I feel for the fans. I remember it all too well but know it was worth it.

 

His agent will assess the market and figure out he can't do better than to stick it out in Minnesota.

 

But he's also played 3B a good deal, though Uriias is a plus defensive player at 3B, so they could play Henderson at 2B or OF. Lots of options for them.

 

they have a lot to spend and they will add pieces in the offseason. Correa is a distinct possibility.

 

I'll just say that any team giving Carlos more than $35M AAV for more than 6 years will regret it. But that's not a jab at Carlos, it's how I feel about ALL high dollar long term contracts. It is the rare contract that produces what they expect.

Alvarez's contract is about the limit to actually getting the expected value. Take a look at ours. Altuve is right on track and Bregman, after highs and lows, is also right on target for producing contract value.

 

He’s not getting more than 35 AND more than 6 years- it’s one of the other. Someone might do 10/300. Someone might do 6/210. Nobody will do 10/350.

 

He will go to baltimore.

2 yr 74 mil

something like that

 

That's not even an improvement on what he has left on his Minnesota deal. I really doubt that would have any interest to him- not worth opting out for.

 

I think the Orioles situation is more attractive to him and that he would bolt for just a slight increase.

 

Maybe. I suspect if he opts out it’s for something like 10 years and at least 25 million.

 

Update for those who were pretty sure Peña was better this year than Carlos:
Correa now has an OPS 100 points higher than Peña. I’m screwed we are going to miss Carlos this post season. Hope Peña figures out this rookie wall and off speed thing. He’s been better than I thought he’d be, but he’s scuffling. I still miss Carlos, even if it was probably the right call.

 

Correa had that beautiful stab on enrique hernandez the other night too, as Pena let the same ball sneak by for a single. It's night and day.

He probably could still bank on last year's success to land a long term deal today, but his best bet is to continue with the Twins contract and try to up his ante next year. All he needs in one good year out of three to cash in with a better team.

 

The defensive stats disagree that Correa is better this season.

 

I've noticed many fans completely ignore the stupid overpay when calculating value. Perhaps it is my Real Estate background (specialized, not typical residential or commercial), but comps need to be adjusted both up and DOWN with abnormal pricing (both too high and too low) ignored to arrive at market value. I put Scherzer's contract in the category of ignore for being outside the Market. Upper thirties is the market.