Carlos Correa to the Twins - 3 Years, $105 Million

Nope, he didnt’. Do we factor that into this year’s deal when he’s massively overproducing?

This is why articles such as this are dumb… and largely agenda driven given almost all of these players get injured or don’t live up to their contract every single year.

 

Even factoring that in, pretty sure Verlander isn't worth $70 million this season.(prorated 12 + 33+ 25)

 

Nope, he’s not. But he’s probably worth the same $40 million that Scherzer is making.

That’s the jist… these guys are worth whatever the team is willing to pay them (or their peers)… and THAT becomes their value.

While Correa doesn’t “seem” like a $35 million a year player, is he performing on par with the other SS’s that are also making $35 million/year in terms of career performance… it would seem so (especially since one of them is now classified as a PED’er).

 

Lesson is don’t be a ridiculous owner and overpay for players with long term contracts. No one will ever live up to them.

 

Some do. Nats got great production out of Scherzer and a WS. I think the Cardinals invested well in their corner infield spots with guys who are consistent and play great defense. Mookie Betts may tail off or get hurt as he gets older, but the Dodgers won’t regret what he gave them… while Red Sox fans are still wondering why the **** they didn’t just re-sign him.

The Astros essentially have Altuve on a long-term deal that will overpay for past performance. We’ve already discussed the value, or lack thereof, of JV’s time with the Astros.

Elite teams will still need to sign a cornerstone (or two, or 3) to market value deals to extend their window… and some of those market value deals will be long term. Otherwise you’re just another version of the A’s.

 

CC comes back on a reasonable deal and Pena moves to cf

 

He is.

 

Yeah I think JV is probably worth 70 million this year if he finishes on pace as to what he has been doing. leasing League in ERA while also throwing more innings than anyone has such a huge and positive trickle down it’s hard to quantitative. But at a simple 10 million per WAR the numbers alone should get him there.

 

Even though no one has ever come close to signing a $70 million dollar 1 year contract you think Verlander is pitching to a $70 million dollar value?

 

contracts are signed before the season starts, nobody (well almost nobody) would be EXPECTED to put up a 70 mil value season. If players were paid after every season for their value in the season that just completed then you'd have situations where players got massive money. Verlander has 4.2 war so far this season, depending how he finishes the year and the postseason he could be in the 60-70 value range

 

I'm for making players FA's every year.

This way they either perform or they dont get paid.

 

sounds good but too much roster turnover chaos from year to year

 

The teams that can evaluate talent the best would be the best teams rather than the current system. When FA was first ordered by a judge A's Owner Charles O. Finley said this and tried to sell off some of his players for cash so he could compete for FA's. Kuhn shut this down using the in best interest of MLB clause.

 

I understand that the players and teams want some degree of security. I think that their salaries should be based on a range where they are guaranteed a floor and a ceiling with the floor and ceiling being reassessed every other year.

For example, Verlander this year would have been guaranteed 10 million with a ceiling of 40 million.

I know it gets complicated but not too complicated. It also would allow truely elite players that are young to get more early in their career. For example Pena could have a floor of 500K and a ceiling of 10 million.

 

that’s actually pretty interesting. I get why it was shut down though. If I’m understanding it correctly and “best interest” means no massive turnover of every roster every year.

 

Interesting. Its basically merit pay or incentive based pay. How do you establish a players “floor”? Just by how many years they have under their belt or is that performance based as well?

 

I think it is a hybrid of experience and performance. You can come up with an algorithm both the players and owners can agree on.

It allows players to get the money they earn through performance quicker and more fairly and it also possibly allows a team to have more control over a player by a year or two. If a team doesn’t want the player they can release him and that lets the player enter free agency. If a player is traded his floor and ceiling transfer, or can possibly even allow a bonus for being dealt.

 

Cool idea, how would that work for luxury tax stuff? What if you have a season where your team salary is 100 mil above expectation

 

If someone were to guarantee a team a guy would lead the league in innings and ERA and the demand was $70 million for one season I think a team would do it. But there’s obviously no such guarantees so such a thing would never happen.
We are just talking about typical $ per productivity metric here though. typical calculations were running 1 War is worth 10 million a couple years ago so any 7 War player would be worth 70 million, but looks like with the paring down of value we are down to $8M per WAR, so I guess that means he’d have to go 9 WAR which won’t happen.
All that to say- with the benefit of hindsight and where the numbers end up I strongly suspect JV’s season will be valued around $60-70 million.
and this is the metric people discuss when determining if a player is over performing or underperforming his contract value.

 

You can have the luxury tax figured out so it’s based on multiple seasons or you can just saddle an owner with the luxury tax. If your team is really that good, then an owner is making more money and should be in a position to pay the tax. The expectation of ownership is to be competitive and to pay when they actually win… if a team is terrible then the owner pays less. However it is understood that at some point an owner will have to pay if they are going to be good.