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To extend KPJ or not?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Lachard Binkley, Jul 29, 2022.

  1. Verbal Christ

    Verbal Christ Member

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    Its cool thats your vision for the team. I could argue that Senguns pathetic shooting splits could hinder his career more than Kevin Porter Jr, but then that would open up Pandoras Box wouldnt it? Im sure you may find plenty of other positives within his game that lead to "winning basketball" in your eyes, but for whatever reason that logic is closed minded towards KPJ -- there is bias involved whether you care to admit it or not and thats fine.

    Let it play out -- Scoot is not going anywhere for this season at least. I have a feeling he's going to surprise a bunch of people and in the end Rocket fans win.

    I found it interesting when digging around with this specific data point where other players and their C&S 3pt stats ende up. Fred VanFleet (4.6/43%) and the Ball Brothers (Lonzo 5.5/42.5%) (Lamelo 4.3/42.5%) stand out as a point guards with higher volume + very good shooting.

    Tyrese Halliburton = 1.9/43.2%
    Ja Morant = 1.9/33.6%
    Nemanja Bjelica = 1.9/36.4%
    Scottie Barnes = 2.0/29%
    Franz Wagner = 2.1/38%
    Jalen Brunson = 2.2/40%
    Malcolm Brogdon = 2.4/33%
    Dejounte Murray = 2.5/34.5%

    Trae Young= 1.0/48%

    I guess the way the stat is getting diminished I was thinking I'd see higher percentages especially within the low sample size crowd and it doesnt appear to be the case. Sure higher volume guys shooting +40 is freaking awesome. You typically find off ball players in those roles. Hopefully KPJ can sustain while adding volume - we'll find out.
     
  2. jordnnnn

    jordnnnn Member

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    I don’t know exactly what you mean.

    KPJ
    3 point Attempts Per Game : 6.8

    Broken down by how open
    Wide Open : 1.7 attempts per game @ 43.1%
    Open : 4.0 attempts per game @ 38.2%
    Tight Coverage : 1.0 attempts per game @ 25.4%
    Very Tight Coverage : < 0.1 attempts per game @ 50.0% (3/6 over the entire season)

    The vast majority of his 3s taken were wide open or open.

    The whole point of this entire argument is there are people claiming that today, this very second, KPJ is already a very good shooter. There are people on the other side using very reasonable numbers to point to reasons why it’s possible that KPJ had a hot shooting season that might not continue. Volume, shooting % from other areas of the floor outside of just catch and shoot 3s are both valid indicators that maybe his shooting isn’t all that great YET.

    There were obvious good signs from him as a shooter. There were also bad signs. He’s still young, it’s possible he only gets better, but it’s not a guarantee.
     
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  3. AlperenSengun

    AlperenSengun Member

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    He means catch and shoots are easy and the rest are harder, so concludes that KPJ gets his % by making the hard, non catch and shoot 3s.
     
  4. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Being hyper critical of one of the best 3 point shooters in the roster is flat out absurd.

    Can you imagine if anyone was this critical when it comes to Green or Sengun? The EXACT people embarrassing themselves trying to tear down KPJ would likely stroke out they'd be so upset.

    There's legitimate criticism when it comes to KPJ's maturity and his inconsistency when it comes to finishing..... but his 3 point shooting is really good making it about the dumbest possible thing to attack.

    What's next, are we going to criticize Green's athleticism or Sengun's court vision?
     
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  5. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member

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    I am not saying anything definite, I was just refuting the fact that KPJ's numbers are somehow inflated or should be discounted.

    I don't understand that if he shot less than 2 catch and shoot 3's a game somehow his shooting is not all that great?

    Maybe I am missing something but the guys that the other poster stated all had twice as many catch shoots 3's made as KPJ, but those shots show they are better shooters?

    What am I missing here?

    I am not saying anything definitive at this point, just pushing back on his numbers don't mean anything or are somehow inflated.

    I would think a catch and shoot 3 is easier, right?
     
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  6. jordnnnn

    jordnnnn Member

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    I see. Well the 33.3% he shoots on more difficult, non catch and shoot 3s isn’t awful, but also not something we should be settling for too often.
     
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  7. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member

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    I agree.
     
  8. jordnnnn

    jordnnnn Member

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    I think the point others are making is that for a player to be considered a good/great shooter they generally have above average shooting numbers in many areas of the floor and the free throw line and at a higher volume. They are almost always above average in EFG% and TS%.

    KPJ had a great % on his catch and shoot 3s, a kinda meh % on a lot of his other 3 point attempts, but overall 37.5% is good.

    KPJ does not have a good FT%. Below average mid range. Below average EFG%, below average TS%.

    Volume also has to be considered. The more high percentage shots you can take in a game, the better. Which is why I believe that list of other players was given. They had a high percentage AND higher volume of attempts AND are good FT shooters. They more fit the mold of what most would consider “good/really good shooters” The more volume of shots that a player makes at a high percentage, the more reliably you can believe that the high percentage can/will continue.

    There is lots of praise(as there should be) and highlighting of him leading the league in catch and shoot % as evidence of him already being a good/really good shooter. Others are highlighting areas that would point to him not being that guy just yet.

    When you add it all up, to me, he doesn’t appear to be someone you would traditionally call a good/really good shooter. Youth is still on his side though.
     
  9. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    Yes, we should continue with the dollar general contracts - Until someone proves they are worth a Saks Fifth Avenue contract.

    We don't have to overpay anyone.

    Throwing money away is just plain silly.


    That's just plain silly .... If I didn't want him on the team at all, I'd just say so.

    You forget that I'm probably the only one who doesn't ever refer to his off court issues as a contributing factor - I always point to stats. The off court stuff is irrelevant to me.

    For me, it's all about proper cap management.

    The other thing is that he only counts $9.65m on next years cap until we sign him to something greater. We can spend our actual space on other players then go over the cap to retain him to any figure up to 25% of the cap - assuming he's worth that.

    Unless he's signing for less than that $9.65 figure, we're better off waiting for him to hit RFA.

    You've been saying $20m plus, I've said NT-MLE range ..... we'll see who's closer to what actually happens when it happens.
     
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  10. AlperenSengun

    AlperenSengun Member

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    I love to discuss Sengun's game. Hopefully, he will be on the team for a long time and we will have a lot of chances to do it.

    If you call it bias, i am biased towards high iq players who try to make the correct play, has no problem sharing the ball, or setting up plays for others. Add some good passing to it, even better. If he is hard-working, gets even better. I like those players. If he still makes lousy turnovers, commits unnecessary fouls, cannot shoot 3s at 30% then these are serious red flags. Right now, we just need to play him and hope he improves. And he certainly deserved the credit for that. Overall I see way more positives than negatives with Sengun. That is not the case for me with KPJ(and that is subjective).

    The funny thing about the whole KPJ thing is that I am much more positive on him compared to the start of last season. He evolved to a better spot. Yet, when I point out the fallacy in some posters' reasoning, the way they interpret the stats, I am blamed to be tearing him down, hating him etc.(not by you). I guess that's the relationship they have with the players and they project it on other posters.
     
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  11. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member

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    Once again, I agree with all of this and I am in no hurry to label him a good to great shooter.

    I just recognize things are looking up.
     
  12. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    dudes acting like they’re his personal blunt roller or some sh*t…KPJr must have them on payroll
     
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  13. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    I think the numbers bear out that he's a good shooter in those catch and shoot 3 situations. I don't think the numbers are a fluke - the career and last year numbers are very similar.

    55/114 last season and 99/234 for his career - both .42+%


    It's what remains after those catch and shoot numbers that should concern everyone because as the lead guard, its highly likely that the majority of his shots come other than catch and shoot - when he has the ball in his hands, he can't pass it to himself.


    100/299 last season .334
    159/563 career .282


    The numbers show he's a very good catch and shoot shooter, and a very poor one in "other situations".


    He's most efficient as an off guard rather than playing on the ball.
     
  14. MystikArkitect

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    Rockets will let the market decide KPJ's contract like the Suns did with Ayton. I'd be shocked of any team offered more than 15 mill per year.

    You can't erase an entire history of drama both on the court and off the court in one season (he had multiple incidents just last season). That's essentially what he's going to have to do and no team is going to "buy" that he's fixed his mental makeup by acting right on a contract year. The reality for KPJ is that he's going to have to wait until his next contract to bank something decent.
     
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  15. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    This is exactly why making him a full time PG is not a good idea. People keep trying to focus on whether he can be a good passer. (Not to mention all those "there's no pure PG today anyway" arguments.) But that's just half of the problem. He needs to be more efficient in his self-created shots to be a viable combo guard. Otherwise, his best role will be a spot up shooter off the bench.

    I'd concede that we didn't have a starting caliber PG in the past two years with Wall siting out. I'll give him one more season to see if he will improve. We have brought in Nix and TyTy as back ups. See if these two has what it takes to be an NBA level PG.
     
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  16. PatBev

    PatBev Member

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    KPJ is a top 5 player in the NBA
     
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  17. King1

    King1 Contributing Member

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    Fixed
     
  18. HI Mana

    HI Mana Member

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    My thinking on KPJ are summarized here:

    1. Out of the entire league, nearly everyone passed on him in the draft. Every team passed on him again after he was kicked off the Cavs, and ONLY Houston, who had literally nothing to lose, brought him in for free. Any other team could have had him, and they all collectively decided that he wasn't anything at all to acquire. What has he shown in the last two years to demonstrate that he can succeed without Coach Lucas being on him and being his personal development coach? He has yet to play a single minute of competitive NBA basketball, and sure the talent is there, but it has always been there, and has never been deemed worthy of the risk by any team remotely concerned with winning games.

    2. Which team has changed their front office so much that they're going to be willing to throw an overpay at him to lure him away in restricted free agency? We saw this clearly with Christian Wood's trade value: front offices are still run by humans, and humans do not like to admit that they make mistakes. Any team could have had Wood for free while he was bouncing around the league, or could have had him cheaply as part of a sign-and-trade two years ago; the valuation on him did not change much, even though he is clearly outplaying his contract. Who's going to admit that they were wrong on their KPJ evaluation twice?

    3. Combining these factors, I feel like KPJ probably has a market of one; if he's going to stick in the league as anything other than a journeyman, it's going to be Houston or bust. So the Rockets should take a pretty hard-line approach to an extension, because KPJ at any price is not likely going to be seen as a positive trade asset. You sign the guy because you want him on this team, not because you think that you'll be able to trade him later on for anything other than a salary dump. We still hear persistent rumors about agents not wanting their clients to play with KPJ; obviously these are done with a purpose, but the fact that they're being put out there means his rep around the league is bad enough to make the rumors believable.

    4. With all this being said, players who only fit on one team like this often become hometown legends and the keys to championship contention. These are the guys who bleed for one city, the guys who take paycuts and are willing to take reduced minutes and roles, because there's nowhere else for them. I badly want KPJ to do well in Houston, both for the team's sake and his personal sake. But if the shoe was on the other foot, and the Rockets were spending all their cap room on a different team's free agent who is as volatile as KPJ (not even from an off-court standpoint, but in terms of his on-court impact), I'd be up in arms about it being a terrible move.
     
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  19. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    We're pretty much in agreement on the bottom line for ....


    I'm not sold that Nix or Tyty are the solution either .... That guy probably isn't on the roster yet.

    I don't disagree at all, they'll let him hit RFA and match if the money is right.

    Unless they get him on less than his cap hold of $9.65m there's no reason for them to do anything until they have to (or not).

    I just choose to ignore the off court issues and concentrate more on the stats driven side of this because ultimately the numbers are going to dictate what other teams offer.
    The off court issues will come into play with non-guaranteed years and contractual outs.
     
    #1119 Corrosion, Aug 18, 2022
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2022
  20. aelliott

    aelliott Contributing Member

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    I believe that would be 2 touches.
     
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