Is China invading Taiwan inevitable and what will US defend it??

That is the PRC strategy and one they’ve used with other territorial disputes. Start slowly and then gradually do things like build air strips on disputed islands. Any blockade though even if it takes. Five years to out in place will be obvious. Taiwan itself, regionals Allie’s and trade partners won’t sit back as the PRC slowly chokes Taiwan just like the US navy still takes steps to fly over and sail through disputed waters even though the PRC has tried to create facts on the ground.

The long game the PRC is playing with Taiwan is that a mixture of Sabre rattling pressure and economic inducements through trade and even internal interference in Taiwan politics will convince Taiwan to voluntarily join. I don’t think the leadership do the PLA thinks they can gradually ramp up the pressure and the US will just accept that.

 

The one element that is unpredictable is the bizarrely over sensitivity of the Chinese culture. It’s just insane how they freak out about the dumbest things. See Moreys tweets.

Otherwise the evidence shows that this isn’t a powerhouse country that is strategically stupid enough to do what Russia and Putin did in Ukraine on a whim. Putin was desperate because he was losing his influential grip on Europe with the Trump and LePen loses, the Brexit backlash, and strength of NATO & EU moving forward. China doesn’t seem that desperate and they have to know that if they invade Taiwan, and are successful, it will fast track manufacturing coming back to the US and other countries which will significantly hurt their economic growth.

But the big unknown here is the will to act on simply being a whiny little b$tch which the Chinese government has shown to be over and over again.

 

???

you do know that the citizens of PRC and Taiwan share a Chinese culture

for thousands of year, Taiwan had always been a province of China.

in 1949, the KMT lost the civil war to the CCP..
w the protection of the US concocted policy of "strategic ambiguity" the KMT settled in Taiwan








Taiwan’s Status Is a Geopolitical Absurdity
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US citizens can go to taiwan and they can come to the US without really needing a visa. That is a lot different than china.

 

you make it sound like Taiwan is the 51st state of the US, which it is not.

and yes, a US citizen needs to apply of for visa before visiting Taiwan, which i did a couple years agao

 

Putin’s Russia is built on Nationalism and personality cult. Xi would like to do that but the legitimacy of the CCP is built in their ability to improve and maintain the standard of living.

They will bluster a lot and talk about the need to preserve and defend “one China” from foreign devils but it’s very uncertain whether they can hold things together if there is a war that greatly harms the economy. I think the leases of the CCP including Xi know this and will make a lot of show but will be very hesitant to do much else.

The real danger I see is not the PRC suddenly escalating to attempt to invade or lay siege to Taiwan but a mistake during war games by either the PRC or the US and Taiwan that would compel the other side to make a serious response.

 

They are smart, and they also know they have to take the temperature of the American public.

Right now is a good time to test the boundaries, as the American public is weary of more inflation and everything that has happened with Ukraine. They can see the US doesn't want direct military involvement, and China has a lot of leverage over the US and many other countries that Russia lacks. With our current dependency on China economically, and our current pain with inflation, this is a good time for them to start asserting themselves over Taiwan. If they are strategic about their timings, they may avoid of the US response.

The US can send fleets there and do fly overs, but if China starts intercepting merchant ships that are unescorted what will the world do? What choices does the US have? You can't put sanctions on China like you did with Russia. Even with Russia you saw the pain those sanctions causes. With China the stakes go up exponentially because those sanctions will directly cost jobs at home. A lot of them, as well as cause price increases that would hit the middle class the hardest. Not to mention that China holds so much US debt that it could cause turmoil in our markets if it so desired. We've given China a great deal of power in our foreign policy the last 50 years - it has paid dividends for us in growth, but it has weakened us politically as well by putting them in a stronger position.

Just as China could do nothing meaningful if we wanted to invade a caribbean island, we're approaching that point with Taiwan. The point will be reached that China can do what it pleases in its own backyard.

If we want to do something to secure Taiwan's independence, we don't have much good in options.

 

No you don't, when I went there they just stamped my passport, unless the rules changed recently.

 

Except that the PRC needs us too. Their export powered economy won’t mean much if there isn’t a market to buy those products. At the same time given long term environmental problems they don’t produce enough food to support their population.

In any major conflict with the US the PRC as as much maybe even more to lose than the US.

 

I don't disagree, what I am saying is that US leadership will flinch first because of how divided our politics is. Anything move that starts to put the US economy at risk is going to cause a massive reaction here. The PRC doesn't have to deal with that until much later and that gives them a great deal of leverage.

China merely has to hint at what they can do to spook markets and bring a US President to their knees.

 

I still don't fully get the justification for Pelosi's sticking her old thumb in Xi's eye. Just seems pointless, unless:
(1) She just really wanted the attention and to make her own pro-Taiwan statement. (I'm hoping for this.)
(2) It's part of a more coordinated effort to raise tensions further. We have a lot of bipartisan hawkishness on China right now. (This is what honestly worries me.)

Honestly seemed more like a Putin kind of move: do something to cause chaos and to keep the other side guessing and worrying. Great, Nancy, just great.

 

3) What crash... DUI... huh?

4) Insider trading... wut?

 

Let the politicians go die for Taiwan.

 

War Game Finds U.S., Taiwan Can Defend Against a Chinese Invasion

WASHINGTON—In the first three weeks after invading Taiwan, China sank two multibillion-dollar U.S. aircraft carriers, attacked American bases across Japan and on Guam, and destroyed hundreds of advanced U.S. jet fighters.

China’s situation was, if anything, worse. It landed troops on Taiwan and seized the island’s southern third, but its amphibious fleet was decimated by relentless U.S. and Japanese missile and submarine attacks and it couldn’t resupply its own forces. The capital, Taipei, was secure in Taiwanese hands, and Beijing was low on long-range ballistic missiles to counter America’s still-potent air and maritime power.

This complex daylong war game, played out late last week at a Washington think tank, demonstrated how destructive any attempted Chinese invasion of Taiwan could be across the Indo-Pacific—and what a forbidding challenge the island would be for Beijing’s military forces.​

https://www.wsj.com/articles/war-ga...-chinese-invasion-11660047804?mod=djem10point

 

She’s there to get the chip companies to move to California and Arizona

I mean you don’t think she’s there for the soup dumplings breh ?
@rocketsjudoka

 

I posted a thread about those wargames back in May for anyone wanting more info.
https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/taiwan-invasion-wargame.315826/

 

Soup dumplings are actually a Shanghai thing.

The bipartisan CHIPS act will do much more for bringing back chip manufacturing to the US than Pelosi's visit will.

 

Why would China preempt sink US carrier and base? What if China just attack Taiwan without attacking US force? Will US enter the conflict, I very much doubt it. If the US enter the conflict, it would mean the US is willing to lose carrier groups and Japanese bases along with tens of thousands servicemen to try to rescue Taiwan?

 

50% of the world's chip fabrication capability is in Taiwan. From a national security standpoint, preventing the PRC from taking ownership and control of that would be worth quite a lot of blood and treasure. If you doubt that, think about the Huawei national security kerfuffle here in the US a few years ago.