2022 Midterms

The Kari Lake victory in Arizona represents a tectonic shift in the Republican Party. The rising New Right can defeat the money of the establishment. The ground has shifted

 

In Arizona, it has. What a crazy time when supporting a lie is necessary to win an election in the state of Arizona.

 

Physician, heal thyself.

 

Will do. I'm getting an injection of disinfectant right away. I'll be healed.

 

The real question will be if Arizona continues to hold democratic elections.

Their governor, secretary of state, and AG are all people who have expressed a willingness to back lies about the election to keep their candidate in power.

So will people's votes in AZ even really be counted in upcoming elections?

 

Wait so ballots counted in the following days after an election are ok now? I could've sworn that the Arizona GOP (and Trump) said that was cheating and fraudulent.

 

The SoS in AZ is a Democrat and the state legislature isn't gerrymandered. Arizona is far from the worst case scenario.

 

For now. But if the candidate from the GOP side wins, he's the one that has to ultimately certify.

 

Yea, saw that. Bunch of them ran on the Big Lie. Good reminder that the Republican Party is an extremist and out of touch of reality party.

 

Yet.

 

What the Democrats need to do is make sure there is an abortion initiative on the ballot in states that might be close elections. That will help drive turn out for likely Democratic voters.

 

democrats are done this november. Enthusiasm is high in the conservative movement and lacking among lefties and yes that’s even after roe

 

The thing is that Kansas is a fairly red state and the amendment was trounced. Turn out was more than double what it was in the most recent midterms.

So obviously the abortion issue was a huge draw to the polls. Also the thing is that it isn't only Democrats that want to protect that right.

Stripping rights away from people tends to fire them up.

Also the more that keeps coming out about Trump and his January 6th coup attempt, the less inspired the right will be to turn out. It will still be high enthusiasm but not the potential it once had.

 

Electing extremists in the primaries like Republicans seem to keep doing is not going to be a good electoral strategy, specially in this post Dobbs world. I think Republicans are about to fumble the bag on what should have been one of the easiest mid terms they'd ever get

 

Samuel Alito and the forced birther clerk who leaked his decision to force them to adopt it - you guys are da real MVP!

 

I'm also astounded at how bad some of these Republican Senate candidates are. Like seriously, you're running Dr freaking Oz, a snake oil salesman whose not even from the state, of all people to try to hold an open Pennsylvania seat? You ran Herschel Walker and his CTE raddled brain in a state that just flipped blue for the first time in forever? An actual conspiracy theorist and crazy religious extremist in Arizona in Blake Masters. And in Ohio we have JD Vance who has zero charisma comes off like one of those disingenuous elitist New York types that independents hate running against a working man type of guy in Tim Ryan.

A year ago I would have said it'd be incredibly tough for Democrats to keep the Senate, now i'd bet money on it

 

Every cycle the left/media runs with the narrative that GOP Senate candidates are unelectable. Tom Cotton and Marco Rubio were labeled unelectable Tea Party extremists in 2010. Now the media has just replaced Tea Party with "MAGA" or "election denier".

 

Tom Cotton ran in a heavy R state and Marco Rubio was generally considered charismatic and likeable at least up until he got destroyed in the 2016 primaries on the debate stage, even if his views were more conservative. And Florida has pretty much proven itself as a red state

Besides Ohio, the three states I'm talking about all went blue in 2020.

Also this is my own analysis and thoughts about them (backed up by polls so far), not the medias. I find it really annoying when everything is attributed to the media like on one has their own opinions

 

Ignoring polls I see...

The Democrats are now favored to keep the Senate. Sure, the polls could be wrong, but then you must admit that the same polls that predicted a red wave earlier this year were also wrong.

After Roe, democratic turnout went up in Kansas. Kansas. Fetterman has a strong lead in Pennsylvania, Whitmer who was likely to lose is now in a strong position to keep the governor's house in Michigan, and I wouldn't be rounding the bases for Kari Lake quite yet. These candidates are radical and as such it means it'll take an even worse candidate to lose to them.

I've been saying all this year that it should be worrying for the GOP that the Dems are this close with the climate as it is. It means people really despise the GOP and the only reason it isn't a blue wave even in this year is because of the economy and the perception that Biden is to blame for it.

The abortion thing is not going away. I know you all hope that will be the case but everyday real life people will deal with it and their real life stories will now be shouted through the media as loud as ever and the blame will fall directly at the GOP's feet. Not just this year, but every single election this will now be a motivating factor for the Dems and the moment a woman dies because she couldn't have an abortion or is put in jail for having one...which is inevitable with the wackos your side is giving power but the moment that happens the GOP will regret ever 'winning' on this issue in the courts.

None of this culture war stuff is a long term winning issue with the GOP. None of it is...maybe outside of transwomen in men's sports...maybe that, but that's not a big enough issue to run on and doesn't even effect even 50 people I bet.