I'm coo with him, just trying to fix his bad CFB sports take palette. Trying to HELP him. Do him a kindness. Edit: just saw the SEXUAL part. "lulz INDEED"
This guy is nuts if he thinks that rest of the PAC 10 would sit around waiting on the B1G if the 4 corner schools were to leave.
If the B12 took the four corner schools, the B10 would immediately jump on Oregon, Washington (and maybe Cal/Stanford). They are waiting right now because they can.
I think he means the 4 schools Warren specifically named who would be the only poach worthy schools left. Not sure they commit to the Big 12 if there is a possibility the B1G comes calling.
If the 4 corner schools go, the Pac10 implodes and every school is looking for a new home, so then if B10 wants anyone, they have to go ahead and grab them or risk losing them. Right now, they can let the P10 float along until the B10 does expansion on their own terms (ie wait on Notre Dame, or explore ACC schools, etc).
"The Pac 10 implodes" is where I have questions, because I don't know the rules around that. Just because it's the PAC 6 doesn't mean the conference ceases to exist, AFAIK. Here's their charter/bylaws: https://pac-12compliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/2021-22-P12-Handbook.V1.pdf Let me know if you find an answer on that, because I can't. Unlike the Big 12, where IIRC if it ever dipped down to X number of members the dissolution of the contract was triggered automatically. If the B1G has interest in Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal, I don't think they would panic invite them out of fear they may go to the Big 12. If those schools did go to the Big 12, I would imagine it would be under 1 of 2 circumstances: 1) The commitment they make to the Big 12 won't be very long (10 years or less) 2) The exit penalty they agree to with the Big 12 won't be very prohibitive In other words, I don't see a scenario where the PACs leftovers join the Big 12 in some kind of ACC situation where they are locked in for 20+ years both they and the B1G are left kicking themselves in 3-5 years when they really wish they could leave. I think the B1G holds all the cards here and can invite them pretty much whenever its convenient for them.
I can't be sure, but I've got to think their TV deal becomes void - ESPN would be crazy not to put a clause in there that if the league composition changes substantially, the TV deal voids. And I would think a majority vote could either dissolve the conference or at least wreak havoc on it, so if those 4 schools are aligned, not much OSU and WSU could really do. On the flipside, I'm curious who really has all the leverage. The B12 has nearly imploded many times - would they take teams that they know are planning to bolt in 3-5 years and go through all that uncertainty again? If the other B12 schools negotiate media rights that lock them in, I would think they'd demand the same of any new members. But if that's the case, and the B10 doesn't come calling, I'm not sure how much negotiating power the 4 other Pac10 schools have. All around a fascinating situation certainly. One thing I've always come to expect though: B12 will find a way to end up with the worst possible outcome.
Eh - it's in response to the Big12 openly talking about trying to poach P10 members. The reality is that the B12 is no better shape than the P10, so either one could try to steal from the other.
Unless I missed something, I don’t recall the Big 12 openly talking about poaching PAC schools. Yormack mentioned being open for business but he's not naming specific conferences or schools like B1G did. And really what else is Yormack going to say? As far as who is in better shape, the rumored numbers are $24.5M/school for the PAC and $50M/school for the Big 12. Obviously that is a projected number for the Big 12 and everything can change with the addition of members. But I can't see any P5 school remotely considering jumping to the PAC, the numbers and stability just aren't there. Edit: Read the whole interview and he was responding to the “open for business” comment. He also mentions the relative media value of the conferences and being tired of it.
Again, you're talking about the numbers from ESPN and Fox in their exclusionary period. I assume that period is now over. Now Google, Apple and everyone else gets their turn and they might have certain things in mind that would allow them to leverage the pac 12 in a way that ESPN can't. I would still bet on the pac 12 absorbing some big 12 teams since they are the ones at the table right now.
Few things: - The PAC’s deal isn’t up until 2024 so unless the networks allow them to start shopping early, they won’t be at the table for another 1.5-2 years. Staving off poacher(s) for that long seems like a relatively impossible task to me. Especially with the B1G biding their time seemingly. - We don’t know if the $24.5M offer was market price, a lowball, or somewhere in between (likely). But if the rumored $50M for the Big 12 is true or close to true, the streaming services are gonna have to find a way to essentially double Fox/ESPN’s valuation.
To that end, two Pac-12 ADs told The Athletic on Friday they see no financial upside for their schools in joining the Big 12. “None of (the rumors) are true,” one said. “The data continues to show that staying together makes a lot of sense as we go through the media process, of which we are right in the middle. … Their TV deal is up a year after ours. It doesn’t make much sense.” “Based on what our consultants have told us, the 10 staying together is the best option, and the only option, because we can’t control what happens in the Big Ten,” another said. “It would be irresponsible from a fiduciary standpoint to just jump to the Big 12 just for the sake of jumping.” Kliavkoff was more definitive in a subsequent interview with The Athletic. “You look at the metrics, you look at the numbers, and any way you cut and slice and dice the numbers, you come to the conclusion that no Pac-12 school is going to the Big 12,” he said. … As Kliavkoff acknowledged Friday, everything is on hold until the Big Ten finalizes its media rights deal, which is expected to happen in the next few weeks. That deal will provide clarity on which networks or streamers will join Fox Sports in partnering with the conference for 2023 and beyond. The Pac-12’s exclusive 30-day negotiating window with current rightsholders ESPN and Fox ends on Aug. 4. While Kliavkoff noted that his league’s negotiation process likely will take months to complete, that date is important to note. If ESPN and Fox haven’t made promising overtures or offers at that time, the Big 12 will continue pushing its Pac-12 targets to make a move. “If I’m Oregon, it’s not easy to tell them that we’re not a priority right now to ESPN or Fox,” one Big 12 source argued. “I don’t care how you spin it.” The Big 12’s pitch to those members, according to sources, is that the Pac-12 potentially moving away from linear distribution to streaming services would be detrimental to its long-term growth and success, that streaming companies like Amazon, Apple or Hulu are unlikely to overpay for Pac-12 rights and that its remaining expansion options will not add significant value. “We already have significant interest from potential partners, including both incumbents and new traditional television and, most importantly, digital media partners,” Kliavkoff said Friday.
So on August 5th the steaming services get their chance to pitch. Very interested to see how that goes.
The delta between the industry estimates for the PAC and Big 12 is not gigantic. Especially when you consider the real gap is the leap from the Power 3 (ACC/PAC/B12) to the Super 2 (SEC/B1G). The real difference between the PAC and the B12 is the equity and stability. Everybody now knows that the PAC is on borrowed time after the B1G commissioner's remarks. There are no such looming, public threats to the Big 12's existence. The decision to be made by everyone in the PAC is do you want to wait for that change to happen to you, or do you want to undertake the change yourself voluntarily in anticipation of the inevitable. The answer for the 4 Corner schools should be yes let's go. The answer for the B1G targets should be only if we have to. The answer for Oregon State and Washington State should be oh god please help us.
