it's really not worth it to imagine trades where Odo brings back a material asset. what playoff team is going to need to *upgrade* to Odo in order to shore up a spot in a rotation?
Cardinals have, at best, 3 average or better starters. Odorizzi would be an upgrade for them. There are others like Baltimore chasing a spot but on a budget...
Minnesota, St Louis and a few others should be willing to give up a low-level prospect for him. I would consider willingness to pay his 2023 salary to be a material asset as Astros really don't need him at this point and could use money elsewhere.
The Orioles see Means as a future ace; and he is still young and controllable. With a good core of young hitters and their window about to open, no way do they trade him for Odorizzi.
Are we sure we wouldn’t rather trade Garcia and keep Urquidy? Whatever happens when the pitching shakes out I’d like to see 5 year extensions to any of Framber, Javier, Urquidy, Garcia or Castillo that comes over. I would think that never making big bonus or big salary money yet, on our homegrown 4, along with them being international players (seems as if those guys are more open to long term extensions to guarantee life setting money than lots of American players are- they’ve seen real poverty and want no part of potentially getting hurt and losing out on 50-100 million dollar payday) makes it more likely that they would take the extension. mot would be really nice if we align at least 3 of our pitchers on Yordan & Penas timeline.
There are definitely teams who are trying to get a wildcard and would view Odorizzi as an upgrade. The Cards, Blue Jays, and Phillies come to mind. The issues are: 1) HOW MUCH of an upgrade? 2) is he better than others available? 3) counting his buy out, he is rather expensive for 2 months. 4) what would the Astros take in return, because if they ask for Mancini, Elias is hanging up the phone and refusing to ever answer and Astros call again. Unless you add a prospect in the 5-10 range to the offer.
Odorizzi has between $2M and $10M in surplus value, depending on how a team views his projection, his recent blister issue, and how his 2023 option was structured. I wouldn’t think Houston would just dump him, so I’m thinking if he is traded it would be for a return in the $5M-$8M range, which should be a decent prospect who would likely slot in the 12-20 range on Houston’s prospect list.
I would rather trade Garcia than Urquidy. Garcia has more upside and an extra year of control so is much more valuable to trade and get a better return. Urquidy has proven he can go 6+ innings and limit damage. His stuff limits him to a #4 or #5 but very good for that role. Garcia has become homer prone, and can't get past 5 innings regularly.
How do you figure he has surplus value? He is owed $1.67M for the rest of this season and has a $3.25M buyout next. That's just under $5M for 2 months of average ( at best) MLB starting pitching. No way he has surplus value. Baseballtradevalues.com has his trade value as. -$7.3M That's NEGATIVE $7.3M So if you traded Odorizzi + Cristian Gonzalez + Joe Perez for nothing it would be about even. That's how badly Odorizzi's salary and buy out hurt his trade value. FYI: they have Mancini's value as $3.4M That's about the same as Mauricio Dubon or J.J. Matijevic and J.C. Correa. AndvI would do both of those deals.
I hated the Odo thing yet the idea that he has -7 million surplus value is absurd. He’s a back end starter owed- worst case- 13 million for the next 2 months plus next season. Absent him getting hurt he’s going to hit those numbers. If you don’t have better options he’s fine as a 4 or 5.
He's not getting cut if traded. SPs of his quality were getting about $8M/projected WAR this past offseason. He should be good for about 0.5 WAR the ROS and 1.2-1.5 next season to give him a small amount of SV to a team without 5 better starters.
Not Snake, but if I'm Minnesota with a postseason spot on the line and only one starter with an ERA below 5.50 in the past month...yep, I think Odorizzi would be able to pitch better than that. I'd be trying to get other guys too, but I doubt they add enough SPs that Odorizzi still wouldn't be a starter for them.
Yes, although I would definitely wait to see his next start to confirm his blister isn’t bothering him. I can think of at least 5 teams that should probably view Odo as worth his contract plus a 40 grade prospect. Teams within 4 games of the wild card for which Odorizzi would be better than their 5th SP: Giants, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mariners, TWINS, CARDINALS, ORIOLES. Odorizzi would probably be at least the 3rd best SP on those last 3 teams.
