I think you are forgetting one more very relevant scenario where a team needs Houston’s cap space to facilitate a trade or Gordon’s expiring to duck cap space to go all in on a FA this summer. Keep in mind Kyrie unexpectedly will be a likely FA next year - you know someone might be looking at dead contracts and paying Houston to take them off their hands. The Knicks may be looking for ways to get Mitchell to NY, teams are still trying to figure out ways to get KD…I look at it like Gordon and Wall’s cap space doesn’t free up at a time when a lot of FA are available that make sense for Houston so eating some bad money for another year or two isn’t the worst thing because otherwise we are going to have to overpay some FA this summer just to meet the cap floor because we have so many rookies. …I think worst case scenario, Houston buys out Gordon if a market doesn’t emerge and lets him try to swing a title team later this year.
The push and pull to me around the NBA is really coming down to who blinks first around KD, Kyrie, and Westbrook. LBJ is going to force LA to make a move because he can walk. They have 2026 swap, 2027 1st, 2028 swap, and 2029 1st to trade. Russ is so damn toxic that no team wants him so they have to give up stuff to get Kyrie. I don't think it happens. Hield for Russ?? If this stuff was going to happen it would have. I think EGo, previous expirings after August 24th for Russ and 2027 1st is best case scenario. Like you said rosters become a big issue. If Charlotte was going to trade for Russ as the media reported that would have happened. Do Clippers give Russ vet min after buyout? I see him as a garbage 6th man at this point that is the only thing that fits his play style in a run and gun transition play situation where he doesn't have to shoot from deep. He is a turnover machine that is effectively Ben Simmons without the D or passing skills. OKC is building the right way, they don't want him back. No contender is really going to want him.
I agree on Westbrook, he's as hard to move as Wall was for us and that was literally impossible .... A deal for EG and expiring filler for Westbrook is possible mathematically as the Rockets would remain just under the luxury tax in that scenario but I wouldn't count on that deal happening. As for no contender wanting him - I'm not sure that's a true statement but again much like Wall, no contender wants him at $47m. He could help a lot of teams as a 6th man on no more than a taxpayer MLE type salary ~$5m-$6m ... Don't forget that they have Wall on the books for $40m meaning they have No actual cap space, they are ~$15.9m over the cap and $24.1m under the tax line. They haven't used the MLE or BiAE. Sure they could "sell" that space under the tax line ... but there are other teams who have actual cap space who would likely be willing to take on contracts for less return. San Antonio & Indiana have at least $20m in actual cap space and at least $55m between them and the tax line.
Good observation about competing teams offering a similar service at a potentially more competitive cost. I was talking more trading EGO's cap hold today for future cap space tomorrow. For example, not saying they would do this, but Houston could potentially trade EGO for Malcolm Brogdon or Derrick White and that gives Boston the ability to compete this year with Gordon and potentially make a run at Kyrie Irving in FA next year depending on how much Irving would take to make one more finals run(or depending on whether they could get people to take other contracts off their hands)....same thing is on the table with let's say the Clippers or Suns who could free up sizeable cap amount trading for an expiring like Gordon...and next year's FA class includes Lebron, Westbrook, Middleton, Harden, Irving, Porzingis, Love, Wiggins, Russell, Vucevic, Barnes, Grant, Turner, Dillon Brooks, Wiseman, etc. Some of those guys have already extended but you get the point - a team in the context of contending over the next few years could remain competitive this year with Gordon and free up a chunk of change to go shopping for one of those guys next year if they weren't happy with their current roster makeup which is probably true for virtually any team outside of GS and Boston right now...
That's an interesting scenario and not completely out of the realm of possibility .... BUT considering everything we know (the status of our future draft assets) and have been told (Statements by Tilman & Stone), the Rockets want to use their cap space next year to be players in FA to get better, as being bad only helps OKC outside of a top 4 pick the following year and even with the worst record you have a 47.9% chance to fall to #5. That seems like tempting fate to me .... For the Rockets to make that kinda deal, I think it would signal a couple things 1) they are punting on the idea of getting better via either FA or trade. 2) they are not extending KPJ and he's moved or walks in FA. 3) they'd be flat out tanking for the worst record again ... Even then, it makes little sense to me - the bottom line is they cannot afford to be bad beyond this season and send Presti lottery picks. They almost have to be a playoff team in 23/24 ..... and cap space beyond this season is a huge factor in accomplishing that.
So the protections are top 4 protected in 2024, top 10 the next year and top 4 the following year. I think that more or less lines up with Houston’s youth curve because they are going to start extending our first batch of rookies in 24(Green, Sengun) - what’s the point in high draft picks when you are maxing out guys on your current roster. I hear what you are saying as a strategy, but I think you are playing not to lose value to OKC and aren’t playing to win - you field the best team you can and hope for Brooklyn’s continued implosion to hedge bets against those 3 years of firsts going to OKC and if we implode instead, we still have the opportunity to take big swings if we land in a top 4 slot. I think my concern is more around available free agents in 23 - the guys available aren’t necessarily guys who fit our timeline so I’m inclined to say you pick up future high value assets in exchange for cap filler we eat for a few years until we hit a FA class that gives us the chance to really go shopping for ceiling raisers. Honestly I think we probably need another year before we can be more focused about team building for need anyway since we don’t necessarily know if Eason will be a long term fit as a wing defender for us or TyTy for instance. I think last years class and Jabari from this year give us a legit core to potentially build around…now he trick is finding those middle tier role players and/or ceiling raisers for depth and versatility.
The free agent list for 2023 isn't all that great..... the best players rarely go to free agency now.
Gonna break this down into two parts .... My plan is to go big or .... go big. Imagine two veteran stars added to Green, Tari , Jabari , Tate & Sengun next offseason. Landing those two high quality players next offseason to fill in the missing pieces of this roster- be that thru free agency or a trade. Not giving OKC good draft picks is just a byproduct of being a good team beyond next season and that's the goal, to be a good (great) team. Your pointing out that the extensions for last year's rookies will likely come in 24 is all part of the grand plan that Stone laid out from the beginning. But remember that while they probably (if they are deemed worthy) get those extensions in that offseason they won't hit the books until the 25-26 season with Green being on the books for $12m in 24/25 and Sengun at a little over $5m that year. Stone will have $71m to $80m depending on what they do with KPJ and his $9.5m cap hold, to spend either in free agency or taking back salary in a trade as they will be under the cap, they don't have to bother with the salary matching rules of an over the cap team. They can take salary directly into cap space. Once they get up to the cap, they'll still have $28.35m between their current salary and the luxury tax which they wouldn't come up against until the 25-26 season. That's when we'll find out what kinda owner Tilman really is. Because of that cap space, Stone isn't limited to "just free agents". He can literally target any player in the league with that cap space via trade. He's also got a ton of assets - both draft picks and young players to make that kinda deal happen. Imagine Giannis wants out of Milwaukee after next year or Luka wants out of Dallas ..... they can take that salary into cap space and still have another $30m to spend. That's an instant title contender for the next decade .... Maybe Lamelo demands a trade out of that dumpster fire in Charlotte .... Stone can make it happen. His options next offseason are literally limitless and the window opens in 2023/24 but how you spend that cap space is critical next offseason. You get that right and the sky's the limit.
This is my position. We have to make use of that $80M cap space in some form of FA to maximize off of using our Bird rights. Its a chance to pick up two stars for free. Luka and Giannis are good examples. People will hate me but Harden is probably the only star lined up where things could go wrong with Philly and he would want to come back here. Could we lure Middleton and would Giannis want out to pair with him here? Milwaukee has topped out with Boston, Miami, and maybe Philly keeping them in the same place. With incredible luck they got through once like Toronto. If Houston had stayed together without Westbrick we would have benefitted likely from one of those years like the Jazz did before they broke up. If we didn't have injuries we would have won. If you cannot get Middleton but you can get Harden in FA and Wiggins is possible what do you do? You definitely do whatever you can if Luka or Giannis are available.
Sure, but there's competition... okc isn't as attractive a destination unless Giddey looks like Luka next year. They have cap space and more picks... Utah won't be far behind after their purge...
I read something somewhere... may have been rockets wire... about doing KPJ extension early. The idea being if the extension is close to his cap hold number it's not costing as much cap space. This assumes you don't plan to renounce him to free up the hold. If he's asking 15 million per for 3 year or so i think it's worth the gamble on him at a cost of 5-6 million in cap space above his hold. The risk is he gets so good next year it's a Jalen Brunson situation and someone offers him silly money. I think it's more likely he has a good year than bad. If we get stuck with 3 years 45 million i think it's a contract we could move later if needed.
That’s what I think happens. If this team is truly as stacked as it seems I would think that is where he best fits. I personally think a player that is at least slightly better at creating will be needed. I could be wrong though. Sengun seems to be great at that. Perhaps Green can improve gradually as well. Upgrading the guard position seems to be the most logical though maybe that is SF or C. Eason Sengun or KPJ or maybe even 2 of the 3 will be pushed to the bench. Hopefully Stone can balance this and it works out.
let’s be frank: neither SLC nor OKC are destinations to (almost all) Americans. those franchises need to draft, trade, or perhaps sign international players. Or OVERPAY Americans.
For a lot that is the case... SLC has skiing and Vegas nearby. OKC would take a player someone wants to join as I stated before.
SLC & OKC are fine cities. But they are anything but destinations of choice for USA players. Thst is unassailable. Sure, either can bring players in thru cap space trades etc yet would not sign either place by open choice.
Generally i agree with you, depends on the player. They aren't income tax free but a lot cheaper than CA or NY... Main appeal would be other players to top Rockets in drawing talent. Coach and the system could matter too...
