I'm guessing all the seniors signed for below slot. They should have plenty more than $555k to offer Clifford. I also am guessing that Jackson was drafted mostly as a Plan B in case they didn't have enough to sign Clifford. Seems like an 18th Round pick is worth the remote gamble. Given that Clifford already said he plans to sign, I'm guessing the Astros have this all figured out already. I'll be surprised if they are able to sign both Clifford and Jackson. But I don't pretend to know as much about this stuff as many of you.
To me, what Clifford said during the draft just means that he has a price and will sign if the Astros meet it. Caden Dana (ranked 119 by MLB) signed for 1.5M in the 11th round. I wonder if that's close to what it will take for Clifford. Right now they can offer 530,450 (125,000 base, 63,600 saved from DeVos, and 341,850 for going over 5% without losing draft picks). I feel like Gilbert and Melton won't save any money, so not saving money on Taylor and Trey hurts. Hopefully Knorr can save a decent amount of his 594k slot value, because the remaining 5 draft picks are worth 150k - 260k so not much to play with there. I read from Jim Callis that draft picks have to "sign for 75% of their slot value if they were one of the top 300 players selected to get a physical and consented to doing so before the draft". Not sure which of our picks fall under that category.
I assume going all in on Clifford means not signing Jackson, so that gets us to about 730K. I had my doubts on Clifford after Taylor signed for full slot. Doubt we get anything more than 100k off each of Gilbert, Knoor, and Melton. Even that only gets us to about 1 million dollars.
Unless Melton (who is a Sr) signs for well below slot, I just don’t see how they’ll have enough to sign Clifford. I can’t see him taking <$900k and my guess would be more like $1.6M. So they have to save another $400k-$1M. If his asking price is at the lower end of that I could see them getting there just with the Srs they drafted rounds 4-10 but if he wants $1M+ that’s gonna have to come from Melton or Gilbert.
Where does the extra 200k come from? Jackson not signing doesn't increase the amount we can give Clifford, unless I misunderstood. Oh I didn't realize he was a senior since he's only 20 days younger than Gilbert. I guess that's somewhat promising, but I wouldn't say they were overdrafts. Maybe them being older (about to turn 22, so they would be 2 months from turning 23 in next years draft) can help save some money.
They definitely were not overdrafts, but both don’t have a ton of leverage. Sure, they could go back to school but the downside is far bigger than the upside.
Looks like Melton is just a JR, not sure where I got confused. So that does make it pretty unlikely Melton or Gilbert sign for significantly underslot. Just looking at the list my guess is they can get to $800k-$900k, which would be a bonus commiserate with pick 70-80.
Baseball America draft database has updated the bonuses. They haven't put in Taylor's yet and Gillis's bonus has not yet been disclosed. OP updated.
Those new numbers would put them at close to $900k to offer Clifford. That amount would fall in the slots for picks 70-80. Should be enough.
Clifford's athleticism is underrated, ran 6.71 60yd in 2021 and throws 94mph from the outfield, should be able to stick in the outfield unlike Seth Beer who he keeps getting comped to
