yeah people say this like the team automatically has to go to zero in 2.5 years and no other transactions can be made between now and 2034.
I won't be surprised if someone over pays for Castillo because you get him for two pennant runs and he does have good stuff. However I don't think it is too far fetched for someone to say they would rather have almost 5 years of Luis Garcia. While everyone knows Castillo is really talented, Garcia has unrealized upside as well and is 4 years younger.
"Boras said on the podcast. “Michael, he has extraordinary healing powers and the doctors are saying as we walk through this, there’s potential for him potentially hitting in September certainly and we have to see … how his rehab goes to fulfill that expectation." https://nypost.com/2022/07/19/michael-conforto-drawing-interest-from-multiple-teams-boras/ Totally depends on the medicals. IF he is hitting by September what about throwing? Don't see the Astros wanting him to be a DH.
I am less optimistic than you on Verlander. While ownership really wants him, he is angling for a 3-4 year deal and I am not sure that the Astros front office or ownership will be comfortable with that. The Astros have had interest in Castillo for at least 3 years now. My guess is someone in the middle of the rotation and another prospect in that 5-10 range is the type of ball park it would take. One thing attractive to some teams is that Castillo is supposedly open to extension talks.
And the thing no one wants to say or admit, which is that once the players get these deals most of them have no incentive to play through even the most minor of injuries. It is never the right move to pay the huge, long-term deal.
There is another benefit to trading for Castillo You keep him away from your competition. That should be worth an extra prospect or two going back to the Reds
It is one bat and one position. You would no longer have a Shortstop candidate, CF candidate other than Leon. Not only that his salary would put you out of Tucker more than likely and sooner or later you have to re-up Altuve and Bregman. It would be exciting to get Soto, but you are migrating to the Angel model of paying 2 superstars and losing all your financial flexibility while gutting your minor leagues.
If you go for Soto it’s going to cost you 40/50 million a year. There’s not going to be many other transactions. You won’t be able to sign Tucker, because you will also be replacing Verlander and Bregman in a couple of years. The Astros are not going to throw away a decade of contending for a 2-3 year window which will not guarantee a World Series anyway. Yankees thought they had it made when they signed Stanton and Cole to add to judge and how did that work out. We kicked their ass and I think we will do it again this year.
You don’t have to bring Soto back or you could let Bregman go. It’s about leaving no stone unturned and enhancing the window. Also, you don’t let rivals land him.
How large is your window? The Astros are talking decades, if you don’t re-sign Soto after giving up all those assets you are taking 2-3. I get the excitement, but time and time again it’s been proven that these massive/long contracts won’t work for any team that doesn’t care about money which is the Yankees, LA, SD, and now the Mets. How many WS have those teams been to or won since the Astros got good? SD went absolutely crazy last year and where did it get them?
LA has been as successful as Houston since 2017. 3 Pennants, one Ring, and utter domination of their league. Only difference is they're 4-1 in the DS, while we're 5-0 in the current stretch. Yankees are yet to break the Salary cap, same for SD, and the Mets are just in year one of not totally inept ownership.
There is info out there that says Corbin would be added in a Soto deal. If true would that make us more or less of a possibility you guys think? Does Corbin have anything left in the tank or is he purely a poison pill contract at this point?
They need to get a feel for the type of worker he is, but assuming he is a hard worker then they would be wise to trade for Castillo and extend him at 6/150. They now have Alvarez under long term control. They desperately want to get Tucker done as well, and this would likely give them flexibility to do that. They then can try extending some of their international starters like Javier for a few seasons. They have Pena under long term control, they will not be spending much on the catcher spot.... they have Bregman and Altuve coming off the books after the 24' season. While both are good, I don't see Bregman getting 30 million like he will make the next two seasons and Altuve isn't likely to make 29 million a season on his next deal either.
“Giving up all those assets”? Since when did landing Soto require giving up all these top prospects? We are talking proven MLB talent. With McCullers coming back/ramping up, it only clogs the rotation and Garcia could be the odd man out. Some would argue that’s a slight upgrade. The other prospects outside of Pena are prospects. On the window front, any fan looking past 25’ should stop. We don’t know what the Astros will do when Altuve, Bregman, and all of our ARB eligible players become FA’s. It’s about what the Astros can do with the current window. I wouldn’t get too attached to some of these prospects and Pena. I think Crane and Click could have the best offer by including him for one of the best players in baseball.
I’m not saying you are wrong, just that I think you are underselling what opening up gaping hole at SS with no replacement looks like, shipping out young controllable and cheap players at SS, CF and SP, and making the defense considerably worse. That really tightens up what we can do. flags fly forever and 4 years in baseball are forever. But there’s no way this doesn’t come at a pretty big future cost. I would get excited about it as I don’t fear the Astros getting to the end of the Soto contract, while Altuve and Bregman are also up and saying- let’s trade a Yordan, let’s trade LMJ, let’s trade anyone else that’s still good and rebuild again. If it comes with a WS in the meantime I’m all for it. But you will be taking a step backwards at the end of the Soto contract for sure, no ifs and or buts. The only question is did you win it all in the 3 runs you had him for.
All those assets? From extra depth? Take a look at what they would still have and the salary commitment...
And then you still have a lot of cash to retain Bregman, Valdez, Javier, Tucker, etc. They could have the best farm system 3 years from now... we just don't know.... Soto is Brantley replacement. If it's Pena leaving it's harder to replace but not impossible.
I definitely get your point. My viewpoint hinges on maximizing those three years and of course getting Soto doesn’t guarantee anything. It’s a gamble but isn’t all of this a gamble in some way? Taking a step back at the end of the Soto contract is a reality with or without him with all the contracts coming to an end in 25’. At first, I was hesitant on getting Soto but he’s just too great of a player. At 21, he was arguably the best hitter on the planet. I want that with Yordan and Tucker.
