Dream team deadline: CF Reynolds* 2B Altuve DH/LF Alvarez 3B Bregman RF Tucker 1B/DH Bell* SS Pena LF/1B Brantley/Gurriel C Maldy Bench: Diaz, Dubon, Lee/Castro, Gurriel/Brantley SP: Verlander, Valdez, Castillo*, Garcia, Odorizzi, McCullers Bullpen: Maton, Chafin*, Abreu, Stanek, Montero, Neris, Pressly Astros get Andrew Chafin from Tigers for Ronel Blanco and Parker Mushinski Astros get Luis Castillo from Reds for Cristian Javier, Pedro Leon, and Peter Solomon Astros get Bryan Reynolds from Pirates for Jake Meyers, Hunter Brown, David Hensley, and Julio Robaina Astros get Josh Bell from Nats for JJ Matijevic and Chas McCormick
Unless he gets hurt it’s a virtual guarantee that Verlander opts out. But this past offseason showed that the Astros are willing to engage Verlander at market price in free agency. If they make a competitive offer there’s no reason for him to leave; he knows the organization and he knows they will contend. He’s been excellent here and there’s no reason to take the risk of changing orgs unless there’s a significant monetary incentive.
Scherzer's deal kind of set the market on paying an aging starting pitcher. I'm guessing he'll want $35M/year at a minimum, and probably looking at $40M. Something like 3/$105M or 2/$75M
2017: Astros gave up #3 Franklin Perez - 50 grade 19 yr old SP in A ball #9 Daz Cameron - 45 grade 20 yr old CF in A ball #11 Jake Rogers- 40 grade 22 yr old C in A ball. For 2 yrs/3 playoff runs of Justin Verlander. 2019: Astros gave up #3 Seth Beer - 50 grade DH/1B in AA #4 J.B.Bukauskas- 50 grade RP in AA #5 Corbin Martin - 50 grade SP just had TJS #22 Josh Rojas- 50 grade util. In AAA. for 2 yrs/3 playoff runs of Zach Grienke + $24 M of his salary. 1) Castillo is very good but not on their level. 2) He has only 1 yr/2 playoff runs of control. With no money coming back, then 3 40-45 level prospects should be very fair. MLB pipeline has all of the Astros top 30 graded at 40 or higher I don't find that realistic. I prefer Fan graphs which was just published earlier this month. They have 13 prospects rated at 40 or higher.( and 3 more that were drafted) So some combination of 3 prospects in the 3-13 range of the Fangraphs list should be fair for Castillo Barber Y.Diaz K.Lee Leon Hensley Joe Perz Whitley McDermott Solis Cerny Seth Martinez Dubin. I would say 1 from top 1/3, 1 from middle, and 1 from bottom 1/3. And Seth Martinez is off the table for this deal. IMO ( I have no idea why they still have Solis rated do high)
None of the guys they get are really blue chip. Whitley is always hurt. Baker is aging out. Perez is having a down year and is blocked. Barber has probably highest value but is 2+ years away. If we were covering half or more of Corbin's contract I would agree. I also think they could get better prospects for Bell but part of the calculus is saving them 20-25 million off one of the worst contracts right now. It would be contingent on the analytics and pitching staff looking at Corbin and believing they can fix him.
Solis throws 102 but has had back to back TJ surgery. If he's healthy he's a likely dominant setup man or closer.... Been a couple of years but the Astros rate him high enough to leave him on 40 man until this year... I have him as a deep sleeper for a callup to the pen in the majors if he looks somewhat sharp in rehab. Probably takes an injury given the depth this year...
Nats will do better for Bell... Reynolds looks borderline... probably needs more since he's years from free agency. Fair offer on Castillo but I don't do it. I feel like Javier could be just as good in near term and a lot cheaper on payroll. I would feel different if Verlander goes down.
For those suggesting the Astros trade for Reynolds, the Pirates have stated continuously for over a year that they do not want to trade him. They were able to work out a short extension to buy our arbitration years this offseason. That gives them hope and more motivation to hold on to him rather than trade him. It would take a king's ransom to acquire him. Think 4 if our top 6-8 prospects with at least 2 of them being top 2 or 3. Brown, K.Lee, Barber. and J.Perez. Even that may not be enough.
No thank you to trading 5 years of Javier for 2 years of Castillo. I think that while Castillo is good he is not on JV level, and Justin had 3 years left when we got him. And Javier has arguably the best swing and miss stuff on our team. If I’m parting with a young starter it would be either Garcia or Urquidy. I’m not too convinced SP is even a need with McCullers nearing a rehab assignment. I’d rather use trade pieces for a reliever and/or bat.
I agree that there are no SP options out there that are good enough to trade away Javier. In the right deal Garcia would be OK and Urquidy is a very good #5 SP and I wouldn't give him away but would readily trade him to improve the team. I don't think the rotation NEEDS to be strengthened but it could be with another TOR arm brought in and that would improve the chances of bringing back another ring.
If Crane has the slightest clue that his best bud JV is opting out and leaving. He’s going to maximize the window this year and give Click the green light. It feels like something big is about to go down. Whether it’s Castillo or Soto… tbd. Adding an arm like Castillo in the event Verlander leaves feels like a no-brainer type of move.
To a degree that is unfair, as Castillo is young and still in his prime. What JV has done has been extraordinary getting better as he gets older, but it wasn't expected. Greinke was expected to age well, but his decline from an ace happened as expected. I just think we undervalue Garcia here. If he could get the longball under control, he'd be an ace right now, but he isn't right now and I can see moving him to maximize our chances over the next 2 years, but I'd rather have Bell and he should come at a lot lower cost.
The future of the rotation is very interesting to me. I fully expect JV to be resigned in the offseason or extended before FA begins. McCullers has a spot in 2023+ and possibly the last 4-6 weeks of this year. Framber has elevated himself to a must start, no brainer part of any future rotation. Javier and Garcia have both established themselves as middle of the rotation arms that have potential to move up. Urquidy has established himself as a dependable bottom of the rotation arm that should not be under valued. Hunter Brown has TOR ceiling and has done all he can in AAA and ready to have his opportunity. So there are 5 regular spots with occasional 6th needed. That's 7 which is a good problem to have but still a problem to juggle. There is also talk of adding a TOR starter like Luis Castillo which would improve and deepen the rotation giving the Astros HANDS DOWN the best rotation in the game. You can make an argument that they do now. That said, due to sheer volume of arms it is reasonable that one of the tradeable pitchers above would need to be moved in order to make room for any addition.
I also think Garcia has great potential However I think the issue is deeper than just limiting homeruns. He is not able to pitch to the order more than twice which limits him to 4-5 innings which is not ideal for a starting pitcher. 1st and 2nd times through the lineup: .191 avg against, .586 OPS against. 3rd time: .279 avg against, .941 OPS against. These results are also consistent with a big drop off after pitch #75. As he grows this could improve, but he is significantly behind the other current starters now and there are only so many rotation spots. Of course this could make him a great bullpen arm but with his current value that feels like a waste. That's why I feel that with such a glut of SP on the roster and system trading him may be the best option for the team.
So looks like the Nationals are looking for major league ready talent for Juan Soto. Do I think a trade will happen between us? No, but I'll play GM: Astros get Soto, Bell Nationals Get: Luis Garcia, their choice of Jake Meyers, Siri or McCormick, Hunter Brown, Pedro Leon, JJ Matijevic. Astros then sign Soto for a 2-3 year extension at some absurd AAV ($40m-45m a year)
Is there a world where Jeremy Pena gets traded? Astros get: Juan Soto (2.5 years of one of the best hitters in baseball; 3 WS shots) Nats get: Luis Garcia Jeremy Pena Jose Siri
With all of the Soto talk I think Click should really gun for Bryan Reynolds. Reynolds fits more of a need for this team and also has an extra year of team control compared to Soto. Reynolds is currently dealing with an oblique strain but should be ready to go around the deadline. I can’t speculate on what the package would be for a Reynolds trade but it would probably cost less than Soto and the extra year of team control could be huge. Jake Meyers would be likely be part of a Reynolds trade. Maybe some of y’all who truly understand prospect values can fill in the rest when it comes to that type of trade. Then to continue this (what I consider to be) dream scenario- I’d acquire Josh Bell. Giving you a very very deep and dangerous lineup of: 2B-Altuve Cf-Reynolds 3B-Bregman DH-Alvarez 1B-Bell RF-Tucker LF-Brantley SS-Pena C-Maldy Bench- Yuli,Diaz, Lee, Siri/Chas
