UT and OU Reaching Out to Join SEC

Big oof for the PAC.

Bigger oof for anyone not in the B1G/SEC.

I know we're going to have to endure another few years of the B1G/SEC pretending to be on equal competitive footing as the PAC/B12/ACC, but I personally can't wait for that to end and for the rest of this 2nd tier of FBS to move on with their lives.

 

Oh all three would be great in the SEC. They'd have to add another school...the tobacco road/research triangle schools are too far North and not big football schools. I'd be down for an SEC that looks like this:

EAST
Florida
Miami
FSU
South Carolina
UGA
Clemson
Tennessee
Kentucky
Mizzou
Vanderbilt

WEST
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas A&M
Bama
Auburn
LSU
Arkansas
Ole Miss
Miss State
10th team

For the tenth team, IDK who you add. I think UAB is a program on the rise, but they're too tiny probably. UCF is the biggest school in the country, but they're joining the Big 12 so I'll assume they wouldn't be available. Is Oklahoma state a big rivalry for Oklahoma and/or any of the Texas schools? Arkansas doesn't have any schools big enough to rival the Razorbacks. Same with the other Louisiana schools. I'd be hesitant to go any further west than Texas...maybe you add Texas Tech to have all of the bigger schools from there? Or maybe you move Mizzou to the West and add another school out east.

The dream for the SEC would obviously be to add the three schools I just mentioned plus Notre Dame. SEC execs would be wiping their ass with $100 bills from all of the TV money.

 

Fixed. Done. Make it happen.

 

The only chess piece left on the board that increases the pie for either the SEC or B1G is Notre Dame. Full stop.

There are some ACC properties that would be close to cost neutral.... FSU, UNC, UVA, Clemson, and perhaps Miami. But even then, it depends on which conference. Clemson, FSU, and Miami don't add as much value to the SEC as they do to the B1G.

As far as schools that can stand on their own two feet without regional support or local rivalries, I think those are all gone.

It's going to be interesting to see how USC/UCLA fare over the next 10 years playing almost exclusively Midwestern teams that fans largely don't give a crap about outside of Ohio State at 9AM Pacific time. To me that sounds like it could absolutely destroy your fanbase.

The regional nature of it is what made college football so great in the first place. The whole is greater than the sum of the parts, etc. So, I'm curious to see how far that bridge can be built before it breaks.

 

Yeah, I almost would rather have no conferences and let teams schedule as they wish.

 

UNC bball might hold their weight possibly? Can’t see them considering the G5 route.

 

Yeah maybe. I wouldn't be surprise if Wake, UNC, and Duke all insist on joining together. I suppose you could add Georgia Tech but their football program has been in the gutter...and UGA may not want to give up being able to exclusively offer SEC membership to recruits.

 

Per Inside Texas…

USC and UCLA could be the domino that helps untether UT and OU from the Big 12. We‘ve heard OU does have the exit fee, but now we’re hearing the schools may get out without penalty due to the timing of contracts.

There is a very strong chance schools from the Pac 12 and Big 12 will merge. That doesn’t mean all schools will make the cut but that’s not really important for UT’s purposes. What is important is contract negotiations for the Pac are scheduled to start this year ahead of a 2024 expiration. Any merge with the Big 12 obviously could not include UT and OU as far as contracts go.

Stay tuned.

 

Only way UT and OU pay nothing is if the Big 12 dissolves and that seems extremely unlikely.

Conference merger is basically an impossibility. You're not going to get that many participants to agree to form a new property and abandon their old one simultaneously. There's just no financial incentive or dead weight to kick out of either the P12 or B12 at this point.

 

Do you mean a merger between the P12 and B12? Yeah there's no way for it to work. We're just moving to a formalization of what we have.

The SEC and Big 10 dominate everything, and the rest is just kind of there. I think USC/UCLA may even run into issues in the Big 10. Are their fans really going to be willing to watch games that start possibly as early as noon east coast time? Unless the teams are performing historically well, I doubt it. Even if they play a big name like Ohio State, there's not a historic rivalry there that's going to make hungover college students or locals think "oh yeah, 9 AM".

 

Dude if we’ve learned anything from realignment, it’s that nothing is really unlikely, impossible, etc…

But you really have to think of the alternative if you're in the PAC? Hope the BIG comes calling? Raid a G5? May HULU or Apple+ saves the day? Can’t see FOX or ESPN shelling out more than they have to and the numbers just aren’t there for the PAC.

 

hmmm. How many schools does it take to dissolve a conference? Who doesn’t make the cut in a new conference if both dissolve?

 

Think it is 2/3 which is a slim chance. If I had to guess, think the 4 corner schools end up joining the Big 12 and Yormack negotiates a new tv deal while letting UT/OU out at a discount. All sides move on.

But that obviously leaves the PAC wide open and outside of Oregon and Washington possibly to BIG, I have zero clue what would happen in this scenario.

 

Let the bidding begin…

 

Way too much for one school

 

The problem with that blue sky, anything-can-happen theory is that nothing that has happened so far is really all that weird or impossible. It's simply people following the money. USC and UCLA being in the B1G feels odd, but the decision by all 3 parties makes perfect sense when you look at the balance sheets.

There are specific circumstances (namely conference dissolution by I believe a 75% yes vote of uninterested parties) that have to happen for this magical scot free UT OU exit from the Big 12. Can you summon up a plausible (read: financially sound) scenario that creates such an outcome? Short of some seriously ridiculous cloak and dagger illuminati type ESPN conspiracies... I can't. Even in this wacky new world where geography and history don't matter.

The most likely outcome is everyone stays put (for now). Followed closely by a pac to b12 exodus (becoming increasingly more likely as we get closer to the new TV deals). Least likely outcome by many many miles is a new league spinning up (in essence two leagues dying instead of just one canabalizing the other). The idea there is a "very strong chance" this happens just seems silly when it is by far the most complicated, dependency rich scenario.

 

Why in the world would Yormack give OUT a discount? Or negotiate at all? Everything is already baked in to the receipt. The only negotiation that happens is if OUT want to leave early. Is that what you mean?

 

If OU and TX wait until 2025, the Big12 gets nothing out of it. Neither side wants them to stick around that long, though. And OU and UT don't want to pay the high fee but can if needed, making everyone miserable. So the middle ground is to negotiate an early termination fee. It's hard to imagine those schools being in a conference they hate and that hates them for 3 more years. It also forces the B12 to have to do multiple realignments, though they might have to do that anyway with continued expansion. If I'm the B12 and pissed off, I put OU and TX in separate divisions and take away their Red River game in 2023 just for the hell of it. Pretty sure their TV partners would not approve though.