I like your assessment on Jabari he will be a solid player for the Rockets. The games I watched when he was at Auburn, he needed to shoot more. The guards at Auburn was very selfish and did not pass much to him. He does has elite shooting skills but his handles are very loose and its hard for him to create a good shot for himself. I believe he is going to be a STAR but he needs to work on his handles so he can create his own shot and be a better decision maker. He has a hard time driving to the basket but I believe because of his handles not the fear of contact. Once he develop better handles, he will be a decision maker on the court, better shot creator and be great on all 3 phases of his offense game. He can shoot the 3's, long 2 and at the free throw line. He can post players and has a nice turn around jumper but he has a hard time dribbling to the basket. Also, he already knows how to draw fouls on players who are defend him when shooting the ball and he is a good free throw shooter. On defense, he is very good. I seen the LSU and Kentucky game today and he can defend 1-5 easily, he block shots and rebound well. I do think he need to gain weight and strength because he is going to need GROWN MAN STRENGTH to get rebounds and defend in the NBA. I think he is perfect for our team. I think Coach Lucas will help him this season with his dribbling. I think he is going to average 16 or 17 points and 8 rebounds a game.
If his handles allow him to get to the rim and score successfully whenever an open lane is offered, that's all he needs. This sudden fascination with bigs needing tight handles really confuses me. Why does he need to handle the ball like a wing? Dirk had mediocre handles and excelled by doing what Smith does, by creating the slight separation needed with compact dribbling to get a his shot off. LMA also didn't have good handles either. As long as he is deliberate with his handling and using it to quickly get to his sweet spots in a compact manner, there will be no problem. We aren't needing or wanting him to do so on this team. That's Green and KPJ's job. It's Jaygup's job. Jabari's job is to flat out pull defenders to wherever he is because they simply cannot afford to leave him alone as he moves around and looks for feeds and cutting opportunities. His gravity as an elite shooting big will be overwhelming. This applies to if he is camping the perimeter, setting a pick or screen at the perimeter, or looking to run a PnP/PnR. Another way to look at it is even if he had tight handles, would you want him in that role on a team that should always have one of Green, KPJ, Jaygup, or TyTy on the floor?
I’ve done what you’ve done and almost have an identical view. Something that seriously stuck out to me is that he seems to be a sponge. He knows what he needs to fix or he surrounds himself with people that know what he needs to fix. I feel better today about him fixing his handle than I did 3 days ago. He will never be Kyrie with the ball but I do expect him to make huge strides and be atleast above average for his size in that aspect. Here is a video I’m guessing no one here has seen, it took me a couple of days to come upon it but it was by far the best sales pitch of Jabari and his upside.
There is no question that Jabari will continue to get the shots he is good at in the NBA. I'm not so sure Banchero's mid range and interior shots will translate to the modern NBA.
Nice writeup. I remember reading your writeup in the draft section where you were higher on Chet and Paolo IIRC, so good to see Smith surprise you in some ways. I can see how Smith doesn't come off like Kobe or MJ who would demand the ball then go to work. Whereas Curry/Duncan is more "oh I have the ball, let me sink a 30 footer in your face/back your ass to the basket for layup". Some of this might have to do with what he was asked to do in Auburn. Due to his ability to shoot alone, he'll be able to create for others. What he needs to become great at is passing out of double teams when he's posting up. If he can nail down a quick 2-3 dribble drive to the basket with average finishing for his height, that'll open up the game so much more. This is something he can definitely do, Jabari has all the tools. He's got the most important tangibles down already, now it's just polishing. He may not have as high a ceiling as Chet based on Chet's freak sizes, but to me he has higher potential than Banchero. The fact he can shoot over anyone and is still growing...yeah he can be the Gen Zoomer version of Dirk.
Exactly, the ability to get his shot off over anyone and being a really good shooter is huge. That is probably enough to make him a very good scorer and a go to scorer.
One thing I really like is that all the players Stone drafts seem to be hoopers. All of them appear to have great work ethic towards improving their skills on the court. Green and KPJ maybe flashy and there are legitimate questions about KPJ's maturity, but the hard work they put in is unquestionable. Same applies to Jaygup who leaves it all on the court every time he gets minutes. Sengun is the same way as well. Now we have 3 more incoming rookies that seem just as dedicated. It's going to be another entertaining season!
Good writeup Nook. Regarding the "settling" for the bad shots, is it something that is inherently bad if it the shot goes in? I guess my main question here is, can NBA defenses scheme to prevent him from getting these types of shots off? Or is it just bad practice? We call them bad shots mainly because there's only one player in basketball currently that can actually hit them. Jabari will make two. Curry has made a HoF Top 10 career out of making the extreme look mundane. Does Jabari possess this ability? I don't particularly believe in taking away things that players do well or limiting them. Let them be but help them unlock other parts of their game that will allow them better looks. I think Duncan or Kawhi are good examples of Jabari's demeanor. Steph seems more playful than Jabari is. Though on the court Jabari is the Hyde to his off the court Jeckel. Looks like a total different person and reminds me a bit of Gary Payton or even Reggie Miller. There's this arrogance that comes out in that setting. I don't think I've often seen a player go Ying and Yang quite like that. Usually they're arrogant on and off the court. But Jabari isn't. It's like he flips a switch.
The thing with his bad shots is: they are unnecessary. He passes up semi contested threes to take two dribbles and take a heavy contested long two. He basically never creates much space outside of a couple of fakes. If he‘d take a step back the shot would be a lot better, if he‘d better utilize his spin move, he would get better shots. And most of all: if his team helps him, he would get better shots. I don‘t have the statistics but I wouldn‘t be surprised if he made the most points in college last season without an assist. He usually got the ball on the perimeter and then made something happen - and that was usually a contested shot. He rarely was passed open, there were hardly any screens, neither for him nor by him, and there weren‘t many transition points by him. I really hope he doesn‘t have to take those heavy contested shots in the pros. Have him in the corner when Green or KPJ drive, give him an off the ball screen when Sengun has the ball in the high post, let him set screens when Green has the ball - and let‘s set some screens for him as well. As a team we should try to get him good shots - and not just give him the ball and let him do the work all by himself.
Yea you and this video does a great job talking about his upper body stiffness and fluidity. At Auburn mentioned in previous posts, he had awful guard play and a center that clogged up the lane and on defense, the auburn defense had to just funnel all of their defense to drives to the rim to get pressured by Kessler. He does need to do a better job finishing at the rim and his 2 point % is embarrassingly low for a 6-10 guy. I think it all just goes back to the team and system that auburn played in. He still has an excellent ft percentage and I think he’s going to draw a lot of fouls in the nba. Overall a great write up once again. Here’s the video
Still trying to digest what happened. I was already falling in love with Banchero, but looking at it now, Smith is just as good a prospect. At this point, after hearing all the comments and watching all the videos, to me it's almost a tossup to think who'll be better of the two. Anyway, it's not like Houston had a choice. We were going to get one of the top three, and I'm just glad it wasn't Holmgren. It's going to take a while, but I'm very optimistic about the Rockets after these two drafts. All the players we got have lots of upside. When these kids mature we will be contenders once again, and this time we will not be dependent on one superstar, we'll be a team full of talent that grows together. All we need to hope for is that the ownership doesn't screw it up and lets these kids grow. Go Rockets!
Yeah they all had weaknesses but I can't think of one who was drafted that high as a wing who had such a weak dribble drive game. This is not about worrying it's about having realistic expectations hence the crazy comparison to Giannis who dribbles like a guard. And you still have not answered my original question you bolded.
It’s a good point. As for Jabari it is somewhat subjective, but what are defined as “tough shots” he shots 42% on them from two point distance. The average is like 25%… so by comparison he is excellent at it, but 42% is overall not a good field goal percentage for shots inside the arc. Now I suppose one way to look at it is that he may keep improving taking those shots or another way to look at it is to get him easier shots where his fg% is high.
Did you catch TyTy's quote about Jabari at the press conference. Sounds like Jabari likes to talk a lot of **** during the game. I don't think he is as quiet as he comes off in public. Seems like he runs his mouth etc. There's an edge to him.
Well, that was certainly a hot take, I have no idea what it is supposed to mean especially compared to OKC what exactly is their direction that was so plain to see? I would say they are not that farther on a rebuild considering they have been doing it longer.
i don’t think it’s that bad. And I don’t think he needs too much handles. There were times where he crossed over his defender and went in for a dunk. They were just really far between - I think because of two things: 1. the paint was always clogged. They always had a center down there and defenders cheated of their guards. Dribbling into the paint would mean dribbling into often times multiple help defenders just waiting there. 2. He really likes that midrange. I don’t really understand why he loves contested long shots, I guess because he is really good at them? But still hitting 40% of really tough shots may be impressive but it’s also a bad shot. I think he needs to develope two things: 1. a step back or similar move to give him a little more space. He can shoot over anybody but it still gets a lot easier with some space. 2. Driving by overeager defenders that close him out at the 3pt line. If he adds those things he should be golden - and those shouldn’t be things that take him years. He has really quick feet and flexible hips and he doesn’t have to do anything crazy dribble wise. More than anything him not being the center point of the offense right away should help - and trying to scheme him open and let his teammates help him getting open instead of clogging up the paint should help as well.
There are very few players that are long, can really shoot and struggle at dribbling. Most players as big as Smith historically were made to play inside, and didn’t have the feet to defend the perimeter. So we are already dealing with a small sample size and the bigs that could dribble couldn’t shoot like he can. The only players I can loosely put in that group of guys that size that can shoot like he does and defend the perimeter is basically Durant and Porter. Durant is just a better prospect. He has a longer wingspan, he was more fluid and could score and handle the ball some. At this point Durant is basically an all time great jump shooter but early on he did go inside a lot more and handle the ball. The other example is Michael Porter Jr. he isn’t as big as Smith and doesn’t move his feet as well. He is fairly limited with his dribble though and he is the only recent big man I have seen that can shoot like Smith. Porter is a little difference in that he doesn’t just shoot over everyone all the time, he comes off of curls sometimes. With Porter I think you get an idea of what the Rockets will likely get from Smith as an offensive player, at least early. Porter’s one healthy season was 20/7/2/1 with a high field goal percentage from 3 where he took about half his shots. I think Smith will score more because he will take more contested and post shots than Porter, but his field goal percentage will be lower too. Of course Smith is a vastly superior defender. What is the value of a #2 scorer that is an elite shooter but can’t handle the ball and is a very good defender? Probably an all star and maybe more, perhaps like Paul George? It isn’t a top 10-15 player in the league but it is a top 25 player in the league in his prime. When you draft #1 you want a Shaq or LBJ but those guys are very very rare.
