The problem with correlating our improvements with win totals is that it ignores the context of the rest of the league. Many of the bottom dwellers of last season are improving too, and making more ambitious trades and FA acquisitions. The only teams that aren’t at least attempting to be serious about the playoffs next year is a small list.
That doesn’t mean a play in game. This season should still be about player development. The season after we should expect them to try to make the play in. Where are these extra 25ish wins going to just appear from ?
In the lottery again. Possibly top 5 but definitely top 10. Now if they go from 20 wins to 38/40 wins and the play-in, great. But I’m not expecting it. “The time for tanking/losing is over. They need to play to win!” No, no it’s not. Hopefully they’re not dead last (for a third year in a row) and hopefully no more 20&15-game losing streaks but this is the last year they have/control their pick. They’ll have their pick; their book will be mostly cleared after the year. Spoiler Spoiler ______________________________________________________ "The priority is development right now, and along with development comes winning habits and doing things the right way," Rockets coach Stephen Silas says after watching the voluntary workout. "Hopefully, that leads to some wins, but development is the priority." "We're trying to build a core of individuals who can become the foundation of a really good team," Stone says. "What we want is to see improvement, to see improvement, to see improvement. As long as we're seeing that, we're pretty happy with the rebuild, and I was definitely happy with last year. "You don't want to stunt their growth by trying to steal a win here or there. Philosophically, we're very cognizant of that. If your goal is to put together a team that's really growing, it is different than a team that's going to try to maximize every win." "The NBA punishes the middle," says Stone. "That's just the way the system is set up." "I am a big believer in going all-in. Whether it is to go all-in to rebuild or all-in to win a championship." “It hasn't been easy at times, but we're committed to it, and we are aligned from ownership to the front office and on down the line to doing what it takes to give ourselves the highest probability of eventually winning a title. "That's the path we've chosen, and we're sticking to it." The reality is the Rockets won't measure progress in their rebuilding plan based on the standings again this season. Tilman Fertitta says there is "no number of wins" he wants to see this season. He cites next summer's free agency, when Houston is going to have "so much cap space" -- the Rockets are projected to have as much as $70 million in the summer of 2023 -- is an opportunity for the franchise to make winning a priority again. For now, he just wants to "see improvement and watch these young players play hard." "I don't like losing, but we want to get to the right finish line," Tilman Fertitta says. "We do not want to be in basketball purgatory. It's a horrible place to be." *Still owed to OKC from the Westbrook deal: top-four-protected picks in 2024 and 2026. ______________________________________________________ Spoiler 2020-21(17 wins)————2021-22(20 wins)————2022-23 John Wall———————Jalen Green———————Jalen Green Kevin Porter Jr.————Kevin Porter Jr.—————Kevin Porter Jr. Jae'Sean Tate—————Jae'Sean Tate——————Jae’Sean Tate Christian Wood————Christian Wood—————Jabari Smith Kelly Olynyk——————Alperen Şengün————Alperen Şengün Eric Gordon——————Eric Gordon——————Eric Gordon Sterling Brown—————Josh Christopher————Josh Christopher Kenyon Martin Jr.————Kenyon Martin Jr.————Kenyon Martin Jr. (reported trade request?) Danuel House Jr.————Garrison Mathews————Garrison Mathews David Nwaba——————David Nwaba——————David Nwaba D.J. Augustin——————Dennis Schröder—————TyTy Washington Avery Bradley——————Daishen Nix———————Daishen Nix D.J. Wilson———————Usman Garuba——————Usman Garuba Anthony Lamb——————Bruno Fernando————Tari Eason Armoni Brooks——————Trevelin Queen—————Boban Marjanovic? Khyri Thomas—————— Cameron Oliver————— Cameron Reynolds———— (Did not finish the season with team) 2020-21—————-————2021-22—————————2022-23 James Harden——————Danuel House——————Trey Burke(*expected to be waived?) Bruno Caboclo——————D.J. Augustin——————Sterling Brown(*expected to be waived?) DeMarcus Cousins————Daniel Theis———————Marquese Chriss(*expected to be waived?) Rodions Kurucs—————Armoni Brooks——————John Wall(*expected to be bought out) P.J. Tucker Victor Oladipo Brodric Thomas Ray Spalding Justin Patton Ben McLemore Mason Jones DaQuan Jeffries Spoiler Which teams will they be better than? (both in the West standings and Tankathon standings) Phoenix Suns 64-18 Memphis Grizzlies 56-26 Golden State Warriors 53-29 Dallas Mavericks 52-30 Utah Jazz 49-33 Denver Nuggets 48-34 Minnesota Timberwolves 46-36 Los Angeles Clippers 42-40 New Orleans Pelicans 36-46 San Antonio Spurs 34-48 Los Angeles Lakers 33-49 Sacramento Kings 30-52 Portland Trail Blazers 27-55 Oklahoma City Thunder 24-58 Houston Rockets 20-62 Houston Rockets 20-62 Orlando Magic 22-60 Detroit Pistons 23-59 Oklahoma City Thunder 24-58 Indiana Pacers 25-57 Portland Trail Blazers 27-55 Sacramento Kings 30-52 Los Angeles Lakers 33-49 San Antonio Spurs 34-48 Washington Wizards 35-47 New Orleans Pelicans 36-46 New York Knicks 37-45 Los Angeles Clippers 42-40 Charlotte Hornets 43-39 Atlanta Hawks 43-39 Cleveland Cavaliers 44-38 Brooklyn Nets 44-38 Minnesota Timberwolves 46-36 Chicago Bulls 46-36 Toronto Raptors 48-34 Denver Nuggets 48-34 Utah Jazz 49-33 Philadelphia 76ers 51-31 Milwaukee Bucks 51-31 Boston Celtics 51-31 Dallas Mavericks 52-30 Miami Heat 53-29 Golden State Warriors 53-29 Memphis Grizzlies 56-26 Phoenix Suns 64-18
no more tanking. Play to play. They won 20 games last year; I agree they could have won another 4 or 5 without the die-hard tank. Add to that ten or so wins, I think that puts them in the low 30s to 35-ish range. that's my prediction and I'm sticking with it.
Hopefully from Green not being the worst player in the league till after the all star game. From the developing chemistry between KPJ and Green. From Sengun no longer being nailed to the bench. From not having to deal with Wood's BS. From adding Smith's shooting and defense From adding Eason's defense. From actually playing 2 big men and dumping the micro ball BS. From actually wanting to win games. If Green and KPJ start the season where they left off last season.... and hopefully even improve on that, with Sengun and Smith doing their thing.... it's going to lead to a lot more wins
+10 but I hope we get the #1 pick and get the French big. Even if we don't lock him up scoot at pg or one of the twins. Green and Jabari will make a great 1-2 punch one day and maybe they can win 1 championship one day but im selfish and im in this for dominance so adding a 3rd for a big 3 and a decade long reign is the goal. I dont want to build a one off championship team. That means lots of a heartbreaking years falling short. Give me a dynasty.
So a 3 to 6 game improvement over intentional tanking? That would suggest really bad things about our last two top picks if true.
I don’t agree potential doesn’t equal success. As we stand, 75% of the rotation is basically 19-22 years old, when that group is 21-24 years old I would be expecting the wins to be coming.
I agree they could easily get to 35 depending mostly on whether they want to or not. Unless they trade Tate and Gordon, Eason is going to get the Sengun treatment and won't get 20+ mins until 3/4 of the way through the season. Tate or Gordon will be your starting 3 unless they are dealt. We have definitely upgraded our defensive potential, but can Silas unlock it or does he even want to this year. We will know if they want to start winning this year, by who else is dealt and if we bring any veteran players in. I think the odds on Victor are really slim, so if they can get a Claxton or Mo Bamba with the MLE you should do it. My preferred rotation this year looks something like this: KPJ/Nix/TyTy who will start in G-league Green/JC/Queen Eason/Tate/Matthews Smith/Garuba/Mo Bamba Sengun/Mo Bamba/Claxton
I understand not everyone will have the same opinion but a trio of Green/Wemby/Smith could win 5+ championships throughout their career. Green/Wemby/Scoot H could win several as well. Being able to have that trio and guys like Sengun/Eason Nets picks would be worth it all.
Don’t care but we need one more year of a guaranteed top five pick. We may not get Scoot or Wemby, but there is a lot of talent still on the board. We are going to have to compete with OKC and Detroit for years, need as much talent as possible. Trust the process.
Growing pain but will get better as the season progress. Improved defense will immediately have an impact. ~40 wins.
