So this team needs a big RH run producing bat. Really only a 1b/ OF/DH type can work ( in that order of preference) A rental is OK because a 2022 World Series is the goal but with Yuli and Brantley both FA at season's end then a guy with a year+ of control would be better. I would love J.D. Martinez but don't think the Red Sox will not be sellers. Jose Abreu also would be good and fit in well if Chicago continues to under perform Garrett Cooper would be a fit and the Marlins are almost at a point where they could sell but not quite. Trey Mancini is a good option that should be available now. His mutual option will most likely be declined making him a rental. I think a package of J.J. Matijevic, Enoli Paredes and a lower level arm that Elias likes could get him. 3 players is a lot for a rental but none overly important or highly ranked and doing now rather than waiting and getting into a bidding war benefits the Astros So pull the trigger on that deal or wait and see if one of the other 3 become available. I considered Josh Bell but he is MYCH weaker as a RH hitter and would not provide the RH protection vs LHP that I think this team needs.
Before we get too sad thinking about past holds, remember we could also have traded busts for busts, which we seldom remember. There are trades in every category. One sided good and bad. And good for both or bad for both. We tend to categorize every bust hold or trade as one we WOULD have done better in retrospect. But it's really no different than the wins, just more memorable
You aren’t far off from what the book says. You undervalue 2 and overvalue 3 according to the data nerds but otherwise it’s pretty good
I used to have a sharp memory too. But now I don't. But I appreciate those who call me out when my memories do not match the data. It gives me a standard on how fast my dementia is progressing. Family history indicate NOW is the time the early symptoms will appear. I suspect it is harder on those who fall from a higher level like my dad. Elite mind with elite self control to childish tantrums.
I still Think we need to Double dip and grab both Mancini and Mullins and be done with it go look for another Bull Pen arm or two to lock down the late innings and this team is legit WS favs.
IDK I think the Yankees are about to hit that wall. They have all that ageing talent . with bad injury history's not wishing it on no one just don't see them keeping that pace up
my Ideal thought would be Mancini and Mullins for Leon Urquidy McCormick and 3 prospect mid tiers ish. Then Odorizzi for a Very strong Closer type Pitcher with atleast 2 years left on his contract. then see if there is a better catcher on the market with a avg bat to replace Castro or bring up Yanier Diaz. Maybe see if we can trade Yuli straight up for Cavan Biggio to be our Bench guy? You could possibly look at Adam Frazier from the Mariners for a decent Bench guy who can play in a lot of postions
We'll be top 4 regardless. But the front office want's more chances by creating a perpetual playoff window rather than playing the all-in game for one or two. I believe Click and Crane will take advantage of opportunities to achieve both objectives as they present themselves. Greinke was a special opportunity because we were NOT one of the 15 teams on his no trade list. Verlander was special because they caught Detroit ready to rebuild. Cole pickup is still fuzzy in the details. But I a straight rental is rare for both Click and Crane. I really like Luhnow and despised Purpora. But it was their approach to maximizing value that was so different. Purpora gave away value by waiving players as soon as he didn't see a player as a starter rather than obtaining vale in a trade.
Spoiler Jim Bowden Here is my big board of the 125 players most likely to be traded before the deadline. They are listed in alphabetical order by position group: starting pitchers, relievers, infielders, outfielders, catchers and designated hitters. Starting pitchers (20) Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Diamondbacks Edward Cabrera, RHP, Marlins Luis Castillo, RHP, Reds Johnny Cueto, RHP, White Sox Zach Davies, RHP, Diamondbacks Kyle Freeland, LHP, Rockies Zack Greinke, RHP, Royals — Greinke is working his way back after going on the IL last month with a right flexor strain. If healthy, he could be a fifth starter for a contender, but he has a 5.05 ERA in 10 starts this season. Kyle Hendricks, RHP, Cubs Merrill Kelly, RHP, Diamondbacks Chad Kuhl, RHP, Rockies Pablo López, RHP, Marlins Jordan Lyles, RHP, Orioles — The Orioles signed Lyles in the offseason knowing they might be able to trade him for prospects at the deadline. If they can move him, it will probably be for more of a “suspect” than a prospect because he’s logged a 5.10 ERA and allowed the second-most hits (86) in the AL. Tyler Mahle, RHP, Reds Wade Miley, LHP, Cubs — Miley recently went on the IL with a left shoulder strain, which dampens any trade value he had. However, the Cubs have six weeks to get him healthy and show he can be effective. Mike Minor, LHP, Reds Frankie Montas, RHP, A’s Martín Pérez, LHP, Rangers Michael Pineda, RHP, Tigers José Quintana, LHP, Pirates Drew Smyly, LHP, Cubs Relief pitchers (29) Anthony Bass, RHP, Marlins — Bass has logged a 2.08 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 26 appearances. Daniel Bard, RHP, Rockies Joe Barlow, RHP, Rangers Scott Barlow, RHP, Royals David Bednar, RHP, Pirates Brock Burke, LHP, Rangers Andrew Chafin, LHP, Tigers Alex Colomé, RHP, Rockies Steve Cishek, RHP, Nationals — The 35-year-old side-armer gives any bullpen a different look. Carl Edwards Jr., RHP, Nationals Michael Fulmer, RHP, Tigers Amir Garrett, LHP, Royals Mychal Givens, RHP, Cubs Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Reds Dany Jiménez, RHP, A’s Ian Kennedy, RHP, Diamondbacks Jorge López, RHP, Orioles Chris Martin, RHP, Cubs Mark Melancon, RHP, Diamondbacks — Melancon needs to go to a contender at the trade deadline. His ERA (6.04) was inflated by three bad outings. Matt Moore, LHP, Rangers Wily Peralta, RHP, Tigers Tanner Rainey, RHP, Nationals Erasmo Ramírez, RHP, Nationals David Robertson, RHP, Cubs Sergio Romo, RHP, Mariners Tony Santillan, RHP, Reds Gregory Soto, LHP, Tigers Josh Staumont, RHP, Royals Lou Trivino, RHP, Royals Catchers (7) Tucker Barnhart, Tigers Willson Contreras, Cubs Elias Díaz, Rockies Yan Gomes, Cubs Austin Hedges, Guardians Sean Murphy, A’s Stephen Vogt, A’s Infielders (36) Jesús Aguilar, 1B, Marlins Elvis Andrus, SS, A’s Miguel Andújar, 3B/OF, Yankees Josh Bell, 1B, Nationals Jon Berti, 3B/OF/2B, Marlins Cavan Biggio, 3B/2B/OF, Blue Jays — Biggio needs a change of scenery. It’s not going to happen for him in Toronto. Seth Brown, 1B/OF/DH/PH, A’s Vidal Bruján, 2B/SS/OF, Rays Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Tigers Garrett Cooper, 1B/OF, Marlins C.J. Cron, 1B/DH, Rockies Charlie Culberson 3B/OF, Rangers Paul DeJong, SS/2B, Cardinals Hunter Dozier, 1B/OF/3B, Royals Brandon Drury, 3B/2B, Reds Maikel Franco, 3B, Nationals Adam Frazier, 2B/OF, Mariners Garrett Hampson, INF/OF, Rockies Josh Harrison, 2B/3B/OF, White Sox César Hernández, 2B, Nationals José Iglesias, SS, Rockies Tony Kemp, 2B/OF, A’s — Kemp brings speed, energy and versatility, and he likely will be traded for the third time in three years. Nicky Lopez, SS/2B, Royals Jed Lowrie, 2B, A’s — Lowrie hit 14 home runs last year with a .318 on-base percentage in 512 plate appearances. He needs to start hitting to get traded. Mike Moustakas, 3B/1B/DH, Reds Rougned Odor, 2B, Orioles Josh Rojas, 3B/2B/OF, Diamondbacks — I love Rojas’ short, compact left-handed swing and his ability to play all over the diamond. He’s slashed .264/.345/.413 this season with a 117 OPS+. Miguel Rojas, SS, Marlins Amed Rosario, INF/OF, Guardians Jonathan Schoop, 2B, Tigers Dominic Smith, 1B, Mets Gio Urshela, 3B, Twins Jonathan Villar, 2B/3B, Cubs — Villar still has speed, and can play second and third base coming off the bench. Christian Walker, 1B, Diamondbacks Joey Wendle, 3B/2B/SS, Marlins Patrick Wisdom, 3B/OF, Cubs Outfielders (30) Andrew Benintendi, LF, Royals Charlie Blackmon, RF/DH, Rockies Kole Calhoun, OF, Rangers Ben Gamel, LF/RF, Pirates Joey Gallo, LF/RF, Yankees Randal Grichuk, CF/RF, Rockies Robbie Grossman, RF/LF, Tigers — Grossman grinds out at-bats and has a career .349 on-base percentage, but he’s having a down year, hitting .195 with no home runs. He’s a bench player at this point in his career. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF/INF, Blue Jays — The Blue Jays could dangle him for a left-handed hitting left fielder to better balance their lineup. Perhaps Benintendi? Gurriel is signed through next year. Mitch Haniger, OF, Mariners Ian Happ, OF/INF, Cubs Yadiel Hernandez, LF, Nationals Jarred Kelenic, OF, Mariners Ramón Laureano, CF, A’s — Oakland could package Laureano with Montas at the trade deadline. Laureano, who is under team control through 2024, has 20-homer, 15-stolen bases potential. Trey Mancini, OF/1B/DH, Orioles Jake Marisnick, OF, Pirates — Marisnick is still a plus-plus defender in center field. He went on the IL on May 10 after injuring his thumb making a diving catch and needed surgery. Austin Meadows, LF/RF, Tigers Whit Merrifield, RF/2B, Royals Cedric Mullins, CF, Orioles David Peralta, LF, Diamondbacks Tommy Pham, LF, Reds Chad Pinder, OF/3B, A’s AJ Pollock, OF, White Sox Bryan Reynolds, CF, Pirates Victor Robles, CF, Nationals Jesús Sánchez, OF, Marlins Anthony Santander, RF/LF, Orioles Nick Senzel, CF/3B/2B, Reds Michael A. Taylor, CF, Royals Lane Thomas, OF, Nationals Mike Yastrzemski, OF, Giants Designated hitters (3) Nelson Cruz, Nationals J.D. Davis, Mets — He can play first base, third base and left field, as well as DH, coming off the bench with right-handed-hitting power. Daniel Vogelbach, Pirates
Okay. Time for a reset. The Astros are 22nd in offense, so they need to improve if they want to optimize their chance at getting to the World Series. The Astros can realistically upgrade at 1st, C and CF. Upgrading at CF will be expensive as true CFers are not cheap. There are a few options out there but the Astros have been very conservative about making deals that include a lot of assets under James Click. At catcher there are not a lot of options out there. The options available will be very expensive. The clearest area to upgrade is at 1st base. The position costs less to trade for, but the downside is that there is no top bat available. The best player likely available is Trey Mancini who is a good but not great bat. A lot of his value will be contingent on how his mutual option works. With Mancini you are getting a guy that will likely give you around a 800 OPS with some extra power potential and he can hit around 290. He is not a good defensive player but he is passable. On the whole he should not be terribly expensive in trade. He is however a nice sized upgrade over Gurriel with the bat unless you think Gurriel is suddenly going to figure it out. Gurriel: 635 OPS Mancini 800 OPS I think that is enough of a spread to make a large difference in the line up. It won't make the Astros a top 5 line up but it could move them into the 12-15 range. The other top candidate would be Rhys Hoskins. He is a clear cut above Mancini as a hitter. He has a lot more power and walks a lot, but doesn't hit for as much average. He has another year of control left and the Phillies may want to hold onto him. He is likely to have an OPS in the 820 - 880 range. However his trade cost will be twice as much or more than Mancini. If he is available he is possibly worth the cost increase as he is clearly the better offensive producer and can extend the middle of the Astros line up and really energize their offense. Gurriel 635 OPS Hoskins 850 OPS With Hoskins you are getting close to the production you got from Gurriel last year. It is too bad that Gurriel had the bone removal in his hand several years ago, it really sapped his power (which is common). Had he not have had that injury he very well may have been a monster. The other area that the Astros could improve offensively is centerfield. The Astros right now are playing Jose Siri and Chas McCormick in centerfield. Siri has an OPS of 565 and McCormick of 685. The centerfield position in general has a low OPS. McCormick has hit lefties well but not righties. Siri is not a big league hitter. However he is arguably the best defensive centerfielder in baseball and that has to be taken into account when replacing him. Siri is the type of player you bring in late in a game for his glove. The most likely possible replacement is Jake Meyers who provides a plus glove and enough on offense to extend the line up when he isn't in a slump. He is someone that improved greatly changing his approach and it worked last year in the big leagues. He is a lot like former big leaguer Eric Byrnes as a hitter. He has flaws but he makes up for them overall. The concerns with Meyers is that a labrum injury is worse than people think, and he hasn't played in a long time and is not an established player. Meyers 760 OPS Siri 565 OPS McCormick 685 OPS If (and that is a big if) healthy, Meyers offers an improvement on offense and is still a positive defender. An upgrade at 1st and a healthy and productive Meyers likely catapults the Astros offense into the top 8-10 and good enough to make a run at a championship.
I hope the Astros take that series and of course want to win every game and be the World Series favorites. But once in the playoffs that matters very little. If McCullers comes back and has 6-8 weeks to build up and get back to being 2021 Lance Verlander stays strong and pitches like 2022 Verlander without fatigue Framber continues to be a horse. Then this team has a great shot.
If we are fantasizing, how about this: Astros get: 1B Trey Mancini Orioles get: INF Joe Perez RHP Peter Solomon RHP Josh James Astros get: RHP David Bednar CF Bryan Reynolds Pirates get: CF Chas McCormick OF/INF Pedro Leon RHP Alex Santos RHP Bryan Abreu RHP Cristian Javier INF Enmanuel Valdez Astros upgrade 1B with Mancini. The deal to the Pirates is quite the haul, but they get a plug and play CF to fill Reynolds’ vacancy, as well as two MLB-ready starters to patch up their abysmal rotation. Leon I am fine with parting for the right player(s) as his K rate is concerning, and Santos and Valdez add more value. Bednar is really good, and has 4 or 5 years of control, so he will not be cheap. May need one more piece but if we are trying to go all in, these are the moves. Lineup: Altuve 2B Brantley DH/LF Reynolds CF Alvarez LF/DH Tucker RF Mancini 1B Peña SS Bregman 3B Maldonado C Bench: Gurriel, Diaz, Meyers, backup C Rotation: Verlander/McCullers/Valdez/Garcia/Odorizzi Pen: Bednar, Pressly, Stanek, Montero, Maton, Neris, Martinez, (lefty)
Siri is the Jake Marisnick of the 2022 Astros, though mot used that way. Defense 1st Cfer and has speed. if not instinct, on the basepaths as a pinch runner. But he should never start vs a lefty. J D Davis is interesting bringing back a former Astro just in time for arbitration. But he appears to be just a smidge above replacement level rather than an upgrade. Gurriel is starting to heat up, so there might not be much benefit before next season.
Just saying that Mullins and Mancini would be clear up grades and would make it very easy to attack those needs for the long term. I like Benintendi and would love to add him to the mix but I think he will net the Royals a very decent Player or two aiming for the playoff push. Josh bell is in the same boat . Adding a frankie monatas wouldn't be a bad add. But again the As would want more from us then anyone else. low cost adds for me via trade Adam Frazier as a bench guy wouldn't be bad Aswell to help push A. Diaz. The Bench for us needs a tweak or two. Main thing is Castros anemic bat has to go. Yanier Diaz needs a look before the deadline to see if he can take MLB Pitching well. But Yuli has to go. I understand he is a fan favorite but you live by the sword you die by the sword. Yuli to Toronto makes loads of since for Cavan Biggio. A Relief Pitcher like Chaffin would go along way
