He’s been about average or a little below (wRC+ 92). His projections offensively range from average (wRC+ 99) to solidly above average (wRC+ 111). Looking at it again, I may have overestimated his value. He probably only has ~$40M in surplus, especially considering his offensive trajectory has been negative the last 2 seasons (although still very good for his position). Maybe a better deal would just be Hunter Brown and Yainer Diaz for Murphy, leaving Barber, Matijevic, and Seth Brown out of it. Houston might have to toss in a lotto arm like Tamarez or Robaina or Taveras. But I think that’d be close.
I don't mind Murphy but we were giving up a lot for him. Definitely not giving Brown unless something worth while imo
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-trade-deadline-stock-valuations Trey Mancini, 1B, Orioles Mancini struggled during the first month of the season, posting a .590 OPS with one home run and eight RBIs in 20 games. Since May 3, Mancini has five homers, 17 RBIs and an impressive .913 OPS in 37 games, one of the few highlights of an offense that ranks 12th in the AL with a .667 OPS. Mancini can play first base and either corner outfield spot, so his versatility will make him attractive to contenders, while his contract -- he’s earning $7.5 million this year and has a $10 million mutual option for 2023 with $250,000 buyout -- isn’t cost-prohibitive. Potential fits: Astros, Red Sox, Twins
I'm pretty solidly in the Hunter Brown camp too. I really don't want to move him but if we do it needs to be part of a deal for a star player. I like Murphy as well but as you mentioned not at the expense of Brown. His stuff is too good if he can harness his control.
With all the Contreras talk, what about Gomes? AAV is bad and he's old but how much could the Cubs ask for if they are willing to move him?
Huneter Brown has ace potential, you don't trade all those years of control for anyone really. He's what Whitley was supposed to be
Mlb stats has 88 catchers listed. Castro is 79th in OPS. The only one that is lower and has nearly as many plate appearances as Castro is Carson Kelly. You can virtually pick any starter or regular backup catcher and it would be an improvement except for Kelly. Everyone else with a worse OPS than Castro has only played in 6 games at the most. Castro is hot garbage at this point. With his retirement talk before the season it feels like he is mailing it in.
This is how we were talking about Whitley (and Martes) a few years ago. I love prospects and certainly you have to get good value but pitching prospects are especially hard to predict. Brown should not be traded unless it’s for a star player who comes with multiple years of control.
Brown has to walk less guys and be way more efficient. He needs a massive upswing in control like Framber and Abreu. Too many 3-4 inning appearances with 70-90 pitches and in 5 of his 12 appearances he's walked at least 3 batters. I wouldn't trade him for a rental but he is not untouchable to me for a difference maker type player with multiple years of control.
Man, those types of trades almost never happen. Definitely fills a hole for both sides but the downside for the FO/GM is massive if the guy they get flops. That guy's heir-apparent to Salvy Perez and is already basically their best hitter at the ML level. I don't see KC making that deal.
Pretty standard for a pitching prospect. Either doesn't have the stamina to go deep or the control to do so. You gotta give em some time to shake out. Most pitching prospects come up and struggle with going deep into games. Framber, as you mentioned, started out with walk rates of 5.8BB/9 and 5.6BB/9 in his first two seasons.
Yeah, I think centering Maldy misses the point a little. I think Click realizes that Maldy sucks and brought in Castro to help alleviate the situation but now Castro looks totally finished as a professional. Can’t hamstring your playoff contending team with that duo.
He doesn’t need to be close to ace anytime soon imo- 2025 would be right on schedule and just fine. I’d like to see him get called up in August of this year to see if he could be a multi inning weapon in the bullpen in the playoffs, then be slotted in as the #5/6type starter next year (behind JV, LMJ, Framber, Javier & Garcia) and then see him work his way up into MOR with TOR flashes in 24 before counting on him in 25 to be an ace. JV on a 2/70 extension this off-season probably makes that about a perfect plan.
Personally I prefer Josh Bell but I’d be OK with him too. At this point anyone over Yuli - I think he’s done as an every day starter in a championship lineup. It’d be cool if we could get the O’s closer Lopez and/or got Mullins to see if he could turn it around too though if we went with Mancini. Regarding Mullins, at the very worst he’d be a fantastic platoon guy to pair with Meyers in CF. Mullins has a .811 OPS against RHP for his career (it’s under .700 against LHP) and Meyers had a .899 OPS against lefties last year. Plus Mullins has good speed (30 SB last year and 12 already this year) and is a capable CF - probably a very good corner OF. Truthfully I’d rather trade for him than Mancini assuming Mullins is cheaper due to his poor performance so far this year and not having a lengthy track record of being a successful every day starter. Mullins/Meyer could be a good to great CF tandem and you could then use all the resources towards acquiring Contreras. If not Bell or Mancini, I doubt finding a decent bat at 1B will be that hard or expensive.
Even though he is having a lesser year compared with last, the Orioles likely have zero reason to sell him at a reduced cost I feel the same about Mullins as I did in the offseason, would love to have him as our CF, but wouldn’t go anywhere near the likely asking price for him
Frances Martes Mark Appel Brady Aiken Jason Hirsh Vince Velasquez Jarred Cosart JB Bukauskas David Paulino Taylor Buchholz Josh James Corbin Martin Scott Elarton Wade Miller Carlos Hernandez Franklin Perez Mike Foltynewicz Jordan Lyles Troy Patton Ezequiel Astacio Matt Albers I'm not saying trade Hunter Brown, but our success record with top arms is not good. It says more about injury risk and prospect rankings than anything else, but you better be damn sure somebody is going to contribute before considering them untouchable. Our biggest successes are the oft-injured LMJ, the waited until age 28 Joe Musgrove and the best reliever in baseball Josh Hader. I'm sure we all wish we had moved Martes, James and Whitley when we could have gotten big time players in exchange, but too late.
