Should the Rockets seriously explore trading UP to #4?

Exactly..... Garuba was a big name last draft
Player X, Y, Z this year
Player Wembanyama, Dillion Mitchell, Cam Whitmore, Dereck Lively next year

Why is Garuba a bust and the others so highly regarded in your mind?

Because a scout said Banchero or Chet is better than any player from last year?
Who is saying that? I'm hearing the opposite, this year's crop is lesser than last year.

Or, are they the flavor of the month in your eyes. Rookies take 3 to 4 years
to develop. I haven't given up on Garuba..... BobbythenotsoGreat has.

I haven't.

 

It's team-building vs asset collecting
I'm with you, firmly on the team building plan

We just saw a perfect example of this play out in the worst possible way on the league's worst joke of a franchise

The Kings have repeatedly stuck to their own BPA philosophy for years, collecting nothing but lottery misfits since adding Buddy Hield in the Boogie trade

The came Fox
Then Halliburton
Then last year it was Davion Mitchell

The only exception was Bagley at #2, when they somehow passed on 2 of the best young playmakers in the NBA

All the sudden at the deadline last year they realized this collection of ball-dominant players was a terrible fit together as a team, and moved their best young backcourt player for some size and other skills in Sabonis to better balance the team

I like Davion a lot, but it was incredibly shortsighted to take him at #9 considering the roster they already had

Would you rather have Sengun, Halliburton and Hield today, or Davion and Sabonis?
And they still have a glaring lack of perimeter D and shooters to help Barnes on the wing

I do not want to be the Kings
I want to draft with vision to find players that complement and enhance our talented young core

 

Oh, are you under the delusion that Sengun is a poor defender? LOL, that's embarrassing.

I didn't actively avoid talking about the defense, I just brought other things up.

I've heard the talk about lateral quickness from Banchero....but I haven't really seen it. For the most part, I've seen him resting on that end of the ball after carrying on offense. It causes him to be out of position and sometimes lose his man. So it's not so much an athleticism or quickness problem, it's more that he needs to focus more on that side of the ball.....something he'd be able to do on a team where he wouldn't be asked to carry the whole team all the time. I know, I know, you want EVERYONE on the team to be a guard, so the idea of actually playing a PF is a foreign concept, but for a PF, his athleticism and lateral quickness is more than sufficient.

You seem to base 100% of your defense analysis on centers getting switched out to the perimeter on guards.....and sure, that's in theory something that could happen, but if you aren't going super small, they'd have another player to challenge them at the rim. Also, you fail to see what happens to micro-ball teams when they face teams with ANY size. Ivey can ONLY defend the 1......and he's not very good at even that. If he gets switched on to basically anyone else, he's getting burned. What's Ivey going to do if he gets switched on Banchero? Sengun? Green? KPJ? Basically anyone? How is the team going to get ANY rebounds with your micro-ball nonsense?

So yeah, in your scenario Ivey blows by Banchero who gets stuck out on the perimeter....then he runs into Sengun or KJ Martin and gets blocked because he lacks PG skills so he just forces something up.

 

Shaedon Sharpe is the pick and you guys are wasting your time.

 

You have me confused with someone else when you say super small.

I have the Rockets this upcoming season with:
Ivey-Green-Porter-Wood-Sengun....JC/Mathews/Kenyon/Eason/Garuba.
Next Season:
Ivey-Green-Dillion Mitchell (6'7")-Eason (6'8")-Sengun (6'9")....where is the small ball?

Maybe even Wembanyama if we get lucky!?! Where is the Small Ball there?
____________
I'm just not as impressed with Banchero as you.

Banchero: 17.2 pts....0.9 Blks...33.8% (3P%)....3.3 (3PA)...
Ivey:..........17.3 pts....0.6 Blks...35.8% (3P%)....5.0 (3PA)...
So Ivey shoots a better 3P% and with more attempts per game....Ivey is the
bad shooter?

Banchero: 2.7 Blk%....1.9 Stl%...17.5 Ast%...13.3 TOV%...
Ivey:..........2.0 Blk%.....1.7 Stl%...19.2 Ast%...14.8 TOV%...
So Paolo was the better Blk% this year.....but Ivey was 3.8 Blk% the previous yr.
Ivey was greater assist guy
Ivey was a guard, thus the higher TOV%.....who is the ball dominant player?

Banchero: 27.5 USG%.... .557 TS%.... .520 eFG%...13.2 TRB%...
Ivey:..........28.7 USG%..... .579 TS%.... .533 eFG%....9.3 TRB%...
USG% is about the same so I don't see issue with one but not the other
as ball dominant player.
The poor shooter (Ivey) had a higher eFG% and TS%.
And the Guard Ivey was almost as high as Banchero in Reb%.
Jaylen Brown was 10.8 TRB% in college......so I'm not worried about the
rebound battle if the Celtics aren't.

Jaylen Brown (college): 15.3 ast%....17.9 TOV%...31.4 USG%...2.2 Blk%...
1.7 Stl%... .518 TS%

Banchero per-40 minutes: 20.9 pts...1.1 Blks...1.3 stls...2.9 TOV...9.5 TRB
Ivey per 40-minutes:..........22.0 pts....0.7 Blks...1.2 stls...3.3 TOV...6.2 TRB.
______________________
Summary: so no I don't share the same worries as you.
Ivey plays like a wing and has long enough arms to play as such.
Banchero is a big but doesn't play big. I need to get bigs to help
the team defend the rim and get more rebounds with either one
I pick. I'm going with the guard now.....#17 a defensive big.
Future drafts.....defensive bigs as well. SF to replace Porter
if he does not work out? Dillion Mitchell or Cam Whitmore will
do just fine. So nope, no small ball here. I'm just setting up our
Back Court to kick @## and chew bubblegum for the next 10 years.

Ivey
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jaden-ivey-1.html
Banchero
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/paolo-banchero-1.html

I give you the last word

 

One plan could be if they actually think Ivey and Green would work is to have a really high pick again next season. Because defense will continue to be a issue. Then spam defensive wings forward through the draft and FA then you that backcourt which could work or not (I have NO idea) would be dynamic as hell I know that haha

 

Or some of the development from Garuba and #17 starts to pay off as they mature. We all saw how just a super active Bruno Fernando made a big difference in his limited playing time. It will not take a lot because not very position has to be a super star just accountable.

 

Oh no.....ok I'll take Banchero. Geez

 

I dont think Player A vs Player B comparisons are as useful in college. Consider Ivey and Banchero were in completely different conferences, playing VERY different schedules (I’m not sure if they had even a single common opponent)… and in this particular case play completely different positions.

Booker was a backup in college. Scottie Barnes was a backup in college.

moreover I’m not quite as bit on the age thing as some but do find it significant nonetheless. Compare Iveys freshman season with Paolo’s in the same way and see what happens.

if the Rockets can trade up to #4 without giving up the #3 or next years first then I’m for it. I’ll take Ivey AND one of the forwards. But I find that incredibly unlikely. And that being the case if someone they want isn’t there at 17 I’d rather they trade back or out for an additional future first, ideally for next year.

 

I agree, and Player A didn't have Mark Williams covering his back and AJ Griffin
and Wendell Moore flanking him.

But stats are a baseline to go by or no stats would be used ever.

I'm showing the 6'4" guy can almost match the 6'10" guy almost point for
point, almost Assist for Assist, Almost Block for Block, etc, etc. To me it's
a red flag that Banchero didn't have more rebounds or more blocks with Mark
Williams making everyone double clinch their B- cheeks near the rim.

Plus Porter isn't gven enough credit around here for the defense he
played at the end of the season.

Porter Jr defensive plays. Watch him vs SF's


He plays like a SF (rebs/blocks)....so what's the problem?

 

Again… Scottie Barnes came off the bench and went on to win ROY. Barnes had a 9.3% total rebound % rate in college. A good 30% lower than Bancheros. He went on to average 7.5 boards a game as a rookie this year.

Is it helpful to Banchero that he played on Duke with Williams and solid teams? Or as it neutral or even hurtful? Did it help or hurt Jabari that Walker was an even better college center defender? Did it help or hurt Chet that the offense was so centered around Timme?

honestly… who knows.

I just know I do t put a ton of stock in that Paolo be Ivey stat comparison you did a few posts back. Luke Garza probably would blow Paolo away in the same stat comparison looking at his last year of college. Doesn’t mean much of anything. By the same token Paolo’s stats comp favorably to Tatums freshman season. Also may not mean much of anything.

Personally I’m not a huge Ivey fan. I see insane athleticism and solid but not insane skill in a combo guard package. I’m biased cause I really hate combo guards. DWade aside I just don’t see lots of examples where it works amazingly. I mean they have value but it’s rare to see HOF level value. More often it’s Eric Gordon level value. If Ivey was a near visionary or even above average passer and could clearly play the point I’d put him as a top pick potential. I don’t see that now or ever really. If he was a generational shooter same thing but I don’t see that.

are you far off base by saying the other guys have stuff to work on too? No of course not. But Chet has generational length and defense with insane efficiency, Jabari has generational shooting and Paolo … TO ME … has generational point forward skills in an insane frame.

again consider that in what is widely regarded as a stacked draft the ROY was Barnes. Now I dont agree with that choice but it’s also certainly not crazy. It’s defensible. This is apparently a weak draft. But whether on paper, whether by the eye test or whatever… Paolo is a very similar player except better coming out of college except arguably defense. This is a comp staring in everyone’s face that I don’t get why it hasn’t been brought up. If you moved Barnes to this draft I think he’s coming in 4th or 5th. I get that’s somewhat the uniqueness of Barnes and the situation at Florida State where that coach just likes to play some of these heralded freshman off the bench (see Patrick Williams) … but also just the eye test …. Very few would, not knowing how Barnes turns out in the nba … have watched Paolo at Duke and Barnes at FlState and have Barnes ahead of Paolo. Barnes also benefitted from the PERFECT landing spot… but I also just think todays nba is just so well suited for this type of player if skilled, dedicated, coachable with high bball iq.

much of the above analysis is contextual. Stats are definitely involved but you have to have just have watched a lot of all of it to form a thesis and then so much depends on the mentality of the player beyond pure skill.

Sorry, long post but best way I can put it. I’ll probably be wrong, Paolo will be Josh Smith and Ivey becomes a Westbrook/Wade hybrid hall of famer lol

 

My way is having enough size to not get dominated on the boards and provide weakside shot blocking. I mean the Celtics have Williams and Horford, the Warriors have Looney and Wiggins along with Draymond. In other words they dont hve a front line with 6'4 PF's.

To be fair I'm not a fan of Ivey's game and would pick several guys ahead of him including Murray, Daniels etc...

 

You are entitled to your opinion and I'm entitled to mine

You meet the narrative you wish to draw and I come to the conclusion I come to.

I put my record against anyone here at judging talent.

 

If I was in Stone's shoes, I'm picking whoever falls to #3. Let's say Banchero.

Then I'm looking to trade Wood plus #17 if I have to draft Eason with the Hornets pick. I'm also looking to trade Gordon and Tate for Conley and I'm signing Mitchell Robinson or Nurcic in FA.

Eason
Banchero
Robinson
Green
Conley
KPJ
Sengun
Garuba
Nwaba
Matthews
Nix
Fernando

This is the type of lineup that's versatile enough to play big or small and very young and athletic.

 

I've already commented many tims on how I see the NBA moving
from 6'3"-ish guards to 6'9" and above players.

The under 6'3" players better be able to shoot like Trae Young or Steph Curry
or leap like Ja Mora t or Ivey.

The above 6'9" player better be mobile and athletic swift of foot to
protect the interior and perimeter.

Banchero and Sengun don't meet both criteria's imo.

But if you put enough all stars around them.....sure you can win a
championship.
------------
you are seeing me advocate for the two elite athletes a combo guards
in Jalen Green and Ivey. Not much different from Marcus Smart since he
was moved to PG after the trade deadline (and excellent winning % there after)
and
Derrick White....also a combo guard type.
Jaylen Brown....6'6" to 6'7". I'm saying Kevin Porter Jr equally plays as tall.
Jalen Green is 6'5" to 6'6"-ish. Have you seen him jump? Front taller men in the post?

Steph Curry
Jordan Poole (listed as 6'4" in some sites)

Bucks used Jrue Holiday to help win last season.
--------------

Do the Rockets have a defensive presence to win it all......NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
But I never said we (Rockets) are going to win the championship this season. Banchero
doesn't get us there either!!!!!

Am I saying the pairing of Jalen Green s the BEGINNINGGGGGGGGGGGGGG OF THAT....YESSSSS!

[ I know I need to put all this in my signature because I've covered this a million times this off season ]

Where have you been the last 2 months?

So drafting
Mark Williams (7'0")
Tari Eason (6'8")
Sochan (6'9")
EJ Liddell (6'7" with 6'11.25" wingspan similar to Draymond Green in size and height)
others

Next season
Dillion Mitchell (6'7")
Cameron Whitmore (6'7")
Kel'el Ware (6'11")
Dereck Lively (7'1")
Wembanyama (7'2") ?? gave to win the lottery though

Goes along towards completing the rebuild. Plus the Rockets have bizillion dollars
as Wall and Eric Gordon contracts come off the books. Able to go after a 27 y/o
Myles Turner.

So NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO, drafting Ivey does not complete the rebuild. Merely
competes the stockpile of guards for the next 10 years with the stable of:
Ivey
Green

Porter (? Beyond this season as he is a restricted free agent?)
Josh Christopher
Mathews

Nix/Queen become expendable if Ivey is drafted imo. Get what value you can for them.

_______________________
Many teams are going multiple Combo Guards in 3-guard lineups. That's winning basketball now
(Check playoffs) and soon to be the norm. Looney is 6'9" and doesn't shoot 3's. Robert Williams
is 6'8" and doesn't shoot 3's......but what do they have in common. Length and athleticism.

 

I could definitely see Ivey being the pick. Stone has repeatedly said great players make it work. All 3 guys can play off ball and athletic enough that they could become good defenders.

 

"Great players make it work." Sounds like Morey's line.

 

Kevin does gamble a bit, but his defensive IQ is good. He's at least 6'5. He's an important and underrated player for us.

 

@ApacheWarrior

Stone should offer JC, KMJ or Tate, the 17th pick and Milwaukee 's 2023 rd for Sacramento 's 4th. I doubt it if it's enough, but they are the Kings after all. Throwing in Christopher made me uncomfortable and unhappy. Take a gamble on Ivey. Move KPJ to the 3. Select Paolo with the 3rd pick. Re-sign Bruno Fernando to a small contract.

 

I would much rather trade this year’s 17th pick for a next year projected mid first round pick … if the Rockets do not see someone they really like at 17.