NCAA Tournament Prospect Tracker

I understand the stats for him but we often end up at the unicorn dream for him to be a star. So maybe he has the most upside because of unicorn status but that bar seems so high sometimes that it comes off as unrealistic upside. Chet has to one of a kind to reach that upside. I look at the league and I wonder what kind of player does Chet need to be to become a superstar. What do you think that is? Can he become an elite level scorer or playmaker which is basically a requirement to superstardom these days?

 

Ivey falling to #6, Duren at #18 and Agbaji at #19 are some of the head scratchers in this mock.

https://sports.yahoo.com/2022-nba-mock-draft-zaks-232425111.html

 

No pure playmaker/PG have won championship in last decade or more.

Generational 3P shooter like Steph, hybrid long 2 way freaks like Lebron, Durant, Giannis or best defensive player/good scorer like Kawhi have led their teams to championships in modern era.

Which in top 3 of this draft match up best with guys above?

Only one 1 way player/scorer in that group and he had a generational ability to score from 3P as well as a team full of 2 way switchable players around him including multiple All Stars, a DPOY and a MVP.

 

To reach superstar status Holmgren would need to be like AD. That's the closest star comparison I can think of in today's league.

 

Or Giannis.

Or he trail blazes a brand new model.

 

Ivey at 6 isn't that surprising to me. All it takes is for one of the Kings or Pistons to take a swing on the "mystery box" that is Sharpe, and the other -- both of which have young lead guards, to prefer a big.

Agbaji at 19 also seems perfectly reasonable. He's a solid "safe" pick for a team looking to win now, but definitely a candidate to slip a little due to his age and offensive limitations. Looking at the guys slotted ahead of him and none of them really seem out of place. I just took a quick glance at a few mocks at random (The Ringer, Sports Illustrated, and Tankathon) and all have him going at 17. Personally, I think that's about right, give or take a couple of spots.

Now, Duren at 18 is just bonkers. Guys as young as him (still just 18 years old on opening night) who are ridiculous physical specimens and put up good numbers in college don't come along often and aren't going to drop unless there are red flags. He doesn't have an injury history I'm aware of, and by all indications he's a great kid who is mature beyond his years. If he falls outside the lottery I will be genuinely blown away.

 

Chet could be a pseudo Giannis-Dirk fusion. He is a much more polished offensive player (than Giannis) coming into the league and he's taller. But the history of guys at that size ever becoming a player like that is incredibly rare.

 

I think Paolo's skillset is closer to the guys you listed than Chet's. I'm not sure Chet will ever be able to lead an offense like the players you listed. Chet definitely has the defensive edge but I think Paolo's defense isn't as bad as advertised.

 

I am not saying he will not be able to finish at a high rate, what I am saying is it will not be as impactful because of the better athletes and people will be putting a body on him more than they did in college.

If you don't see how a thin frame will affect his finishing I just don't know what to tell you it's simple physics, I am not saying he will not gain weight but he will still be thin, I don't think Holmgren will be a bust or not a very good player but him being so thin will negate a lot of the strengths he displayed in college and all you need to do is look at the Arkansas game and how they went at him physically.

All this is about who will be the most impactful player and being able to be the franchise guy and I just have questions if he will be that impactful in the NBA from what I saw in college, I am not saying he does not have another level I am just saying its projection and projection is what gets a lot of teams in trouble when you are picking in the top 3.

I feel the same about Smith with his inability to create his own shot off the dribble and non-finishing at the rim.

 

I think you'll kiss that ass sooner than later.

 

Buh...buh...he's too skinny to finish?

And everything he does well will not translate to NBA like my favorite (fill in the blank) ... just because my eye test.

 

True, Agbaji is a 3/D guy. He can dribble well enough to get to the rim, although he's not known as a playmaker. KPJ is a restricted FA next year and he doesn't play the 2. JC can also run backup point, so Ochai would be essentially replacing EG in the rotation. If you get a player like Agbaji, Davis, or Washington at 17 you have to be very happy imo.

 

I remember watching that live, one of the funniest clips I've ever seen

 

Again, I don't see a relationship between thinness and finishing ability in the NBA. It's not simple physics because basketball isn't football, players aren't allowed to crash into each other at full force. If it's so simple that a thin frame will affect finishing on the next level then surely there must be a player that struggled translating their game the same way you're suggesting Holmgren will. Do you have examples of this or are you just assuming this is common sense? "Just look at him!" isn't very convincing.

I also don't judge by one game. I heard similar criticisms about Mobley's physicality vs Gonzaga, where Drew Timme was tough on him on both ends of the floor. One or two outlier games shouldn't negate the other 35. Mobley and Holmgren aren't bruisers, that's not where their strengths lie. I'm not saying Holmgren will be as successful as Mobley, but if they have similar strengths why should I assume Mobley's game would translate perfectly and Holmgren's game would fall off a cliff at the next level? Does that 15-20 pound difference mean the difference between success and struggle? If Holmgren gains 20 pounds he'll be A-OK?

 

This doesnt make sense! Not sure who this guy is and what type of basketball player he is but GOTDAMN!!!

 

In that mock we could have walked away with both Holmgren and Duren … Taking our front court from zero to hero in one night

 

FREEEEEEEAAAAAK!!!!

But can he play defense?

 

He is 22 years old.....so over the hill on CF terms

Edited: I was just kidding/guessing and then I actually googled it....he is 22