Is China invading Taiwan inevitable and what will US defend it??

@Jontro

will this cause a massive boba shortage?

 

i dunno what i will do without my boba tea

 

Many in Taiwan were fine with the status quo and even with gradually moving closer to the PRC because it was profitable and greatly benefited both economies. With the PRC showing they are willing to sacrifice economic development for political control in HK that is a harder argument to make. I haven't seen recent polling but I wouldn't be surprised if there is less interest in the status quo or raproachment now than just a few years ago.

I've seen propaganda in the PRC that says that they can go back to a closed economy and a frequent message is that the 'Chinese people can handle more hardsip and privation than their enemies". If they were to seriously consider that I predict that will quickly be the end of the Xi regime and likely from internal CCP figures. The CCP's legitmacy since Tiananmen is built on that they could keep on delivering development and improve living standards. If they can't Marxist slogans aren't going to keep them in power.

It's been 40 years since Deng opened the economy. Most people in the PRC have grown up with full bellies, cell phones, and video games. Consider that there are already protests over COVID lockdowns. I don't think these are the type of people that will eat bitterness in a modern Long March for the Chinese Communist Struggle against Western Imperialists.

 

Wait so China practices bombing targets? LOL come on we do the same.

I don't think China will invade Taiwan, they play the long game just like with Hong Kong.

DD

 

Start getting those Turkish drones in now.

 

I hope it works out but seriously. . .why should I care . .. beyond simply humanitarian desire to limit the loss of life and happiness?

Rocket River

 

If the PRC invades Taiwan it will touch off a conflict that could very much spill into another World War using WMD. At the minimun it will devestate the economy of East Asia where many of our largest trading and financial partners are. If you think gas prices, inflation and shortages are bad now that will be nothing compared to a conflict involving the World's second largest economy and one of the world's chip manufacturers. Fought in waters that are key trade routes.

 

This will def rope in japan and S. Korea.

India becomes a pivotal player and to some extent Pakistan.

China's been given a huge pass because they tried playing the Good Neighbor during the Yao days, but their human rights and corruption record is pathetic. Many things they can do to enrich their own people without invading other regions or build fake islands to exploit treaties that deal with international waters.

All that stuff goes out the window when war happens, and like the financial system, the treaty/ngo game is still run through US and its allies.

I really don't see a reason they'd do WW3 unless there was a huge depression, and war is the only way to send future revolutionaries out from breadlines to frontlines.

 

Realistically, if we had to do to china that we did to the world's largest energy and wheat producer (top 5), our economy would be fuuuucccckkked.

More supply side inflation, no profits from mega corps relying on chinese exports, a lot of base or mid level components tied down for months due to supply chain freezes,

It'd be 5-10x worse than covid shutdowns or port congestions.

That's not even going into how pivotal china is for continued investment and trade to other regions.

I just dont thnk any sanctions regime is realistic without us slicing half of our face in the process.

Without that, I guess you have hot escalation to placate the DDs out there...

 

I don't know how that bullies Taiwan into reunification. A blockade will eventually come to head with the US carrier fleets and bases in japan, korea and the phillipines.

Just like russia pre-invasion, you had optimistic fence sitters still supporting/enabling them until the very end, but after the invasion, no one wanted to be caught dead in their friends list...

Singapore, Philippines (Marcos regime), SE Asian neighbors would all likely choose the American coalition because thats what happens when you start shelling land you dont directly control.

It would also be "unlike" the image of the ccp being sneaky and playing the world like a Go Board.

I haven't really followed India but Modi has been using the Chinese threat to ascend as a global player, so that relationship with the us might accelerate even more,

If anyone can point out what China gains from this other than looking like some thug roaming around with a stick, I'm all ears. Taiwan has always been played as a tool or means rather than the endgame itself.

 

With biden's luck/policy, this will probably occur in 2023.

 

What did China gain cracking down on HK other that looking like some thug roaming around with a big stick?

That little bit of "cut off your nose to spite your face" proved to me that they aren't always going to act in accordance to how we see their best interests.

 

There's a little bit more pain involved to crack down on a renegade province like Taiwan.

I'm just saying, until they reach some form of military or tech superiority, it's not really in the cards to launch a credible threat on their end.

Maybe the US oversteps and withholds some critical resource to provoke them to attack like Japan with Pearl Harbor, or maybe I'm totally misreading their leadership.

I just don't think it's painless for them to do to Taiwan with what they did to HK.

 

i don't think its comparable. china flooded places like hong kong and tibet with internal migrants. for obvious reasons they can't do that with taiwan.

 

It’s never about lives, it’s about resources and money
All our microprocessors are made in Taiwan
They control the spice
@Xerobull
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-wo...aiwan-leaving-everyone-vulnerable-11624075400
The World Relies on One Chip Maker in Taiwan, Leaving Everyone Vulnerable

 

The PRC crackdown in HK had to do with a couple of things. First was that “One Country Two Systems” is a convenient fiction that was created to settle global markets to keep on doing business in HK. It was also a good fiction to show to Taiwan. The PRC though never fully honerdd that from the start and HK leaders were always chosen by Beijing. As such Beijing has always been clear that HK belongs to them and any questioning of that is seen as an assault on the legitimacy of the PRC.

The next is that while HK is unique the goal of the PRC has always been at some point that it would just be another Chinese city. As such the danger is in letting HK have its own way there is a danger that other cities in the PRC will also want democracy and more rights . The message from HK crackdowns is also targeted at the people of Shanghai.

For what Xi Jinping and the CCP gain out of Taiwanis that the belief in “One China” is a justification in itself. It’s woven into both PRC propaganda and culture. If Xi or any PRC leader to give it up would be both a major sign of weakness but also undermining their own legitimacy. For Xi in his case though he sees himself as a great Chinese leader in par with not just Mao but also great emperors. To not only make the PRC a global superpower but also reunite the country would cement his place in Chinese history.

 

Put some nukes in there and call it a day. China isn't going to attack if they have nukes.