The Astros starting pitching has just been insane through 25% of the season. Not a single starter is rated as below average within the division... and then there's the Justin Verlander bubble, who has just been DOMINANT. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-mlb-predictions/pitchers/
This looks really weird to me. Usually, I can see something like this and get an understanding of how they weight different things (e.g., new data versus historical data, xERA vs FIP vs xFIP). Valdez, Javier, Garcia, Odorizzi, and Urquidy being clustered together is really weird. Odorizzi suggest new data weighted heavily (this season). Urquidy old data must be used heavily if he's with this cluster. Valdez not being closer to Ohtani than he is to someone on the Rangers suggests small sample shenanigans. Javier not being up there suggests no short term shenaigans.
Lopez as in, the Pablo Lopez who has had several rotator cuff injuries in the last few years? No thank you, huge health risk.
The injury risk would obviously need to be factored into the price, but he’s only 26 and has pitched like an ace since 2019 (when he’s been healthy). I would do something like Forrest Whitley, Peter Solomon, and Joe Perez.
Secret bans would be grounds for a more public lawsuit (what does he have to lose?)… I also think Manfred lacks the intellectual capability to orchestrate such a maneuver. Difference with Hinkie is that Sam wasn’t there for the actual winning… nor was his strategy that novel as you can't really re-vamp the entire developmental process in the NBA (at least back then you couldn't). And the thing that the Astros are largely benefitting NOW from was not on anybody's radar during the midst/height of the rebuild. International targets with possible flaws that prevented them from being more highly bid after, and they're now anchoring our rotation up/down. Granted not every idea was solely Luhnows and he wasn't micro-managing every aspect of the developmental process... but why a team that's going nowhere with their current regime wouldn't at least reach out when they see these sort of sustained results is beyond me.
it's malpractice frankly, but my GUESS would be that there's an understanding not to hire him, what other reason could there be? He's probably the unquestionable GOAT right? I know Hinkie didnt get to finish the job and the team got demolished as soon as silver got rid of him, but i have a hard time believing he's not a top 30 GM in the world, and likely easily top 5
Wonder how the manage the roster with McCullers and Jake both coming back. I’m guessing back to a 6 man rotation and one of Javier or Urquidy gets bumped
I'm hoping Jake goes to the pen or traded if the Astros end up with too many starters. Though, I'm guessing odds are slim Astros end up with 7 healthy starters for an extended period of time.
I also don't want to risk hoping and praying no one gets hurt after the trade deadline if we deal a starter and be forced to depend on Bielak, Brown, or Solomon when we don't know how they will handle the stretch run.
There is (or will be if not effective yet) a 13 pitcher limit. I fully expect Brown to be in that 13 after the deadline. If the Astros pitchers are fully healthy at the trade deadline, there are going to have to be some interesting roster moves or fake injuries if the Astros acquire a pitcher via trade. I'm guessing things will work out before then one way or another.
Why in the world would they trade Odorizzi? The last thing they want is an overworked bullpen come the playoffs and I have a feeling they may put JV on the DL at some point to rest his arm so he's also not worn down come the playoffs.
To make room for better pitchers that are acquired at the trade deadline and to be able to use the $8.5M of his would be 2023 salary to keep Verlander.
I don’t see any way Odorizzi opts in to next season with the Astros. He’s pitching well and it’s only a $3M difference.
As it stands it’s a $6.5M option with $3.25M buyout. Although there are escalators he can hit to max the option to $12.5M and the buyout at $6.25M. Either way I don’t see him taking it.
I don't think he gets the buyout if he turns down the option. He only gets the buyout if he takes the option and then the team says, no thanks..here's some money to go away. If he's traded, the buyout doesn't matter for the Astros, though. It looks like he's already earned two more escalators (25 starts and 30 starts) this year so it would save the Astros $12.5M potentially in 2023 to be able to be spent on Verlander. Considering $12.5M is more than he could get a couple of years ago, I doubt he turns that down this year even with the $/WAR going up. Though, if Astros pitchers are healthy and they have the option to acquire pitchers better than Odorizzi, I would expect the Astros would at least look at trade options for Odorizzi even if they think Odorizzi will opt out.