Sengun can still play +30 minutes. Just off the bench. KPJ, Green, Banchero will get most of the playmaking opportunities with starting 5. It would be a waste of Sengun's minutes, sitting in corner or hovering above the arc.
I suppose it depends on how you define productive? Holmgren played less minutes, took a lot less shots.... but was better than Banchero in: fg% 3 pt fg% Rebounds Blocks Almost all the advanced stats Banchero was better at ft attempts and % Assists The poster was acting as it Holmgren would be drafted based on potential, when the reality is that he was extremely productive as a freshman. That doesn't mean that Banchero wasn't productive too (he was), but there is a false narrative out there that Holmgren is all "potential" and that Banchero will "not improve". Both those narratives are false. I don't think Banchero will ever be a plus defender for an interior player and I doubt Chet will ever run an entire offense. It is always fair to question efficiency. I don't think that Chet will be a #1 option right away, and in fact I don't think he will ever be a clear cut number one option but he doesn't need to be with his defensive impact. Having said that, I don't think Banchero will be the #1 option next year either, but I think he is likely going to be a better scorer at least early in his career, and possibly always.
Spinella is very good at breaking down prospects. But like anyone, he has his pet cats. He also criticized Harden for not putting enough effort on defense but gives Banchero all the slack for doing same.
I’m not totally against playing Sengun off the bench if that is what’s most effective, but the narrative was to put Garuba in his place without even knowing if Sengun and Banchero will be effective together. I’d like to say leave it up to the coaching, but it is Silas.
And having plus defenders lock down the perimeter and gang protect the paint allows for teams to get away with not having a premiere rim protector. Defenders that can prevent paint penetration are invaluable. But it's always better to have both.
No, blocks shots are not the end all for being a rim protector. It is one facet but there are players with lots of blocks that are poor rim protectors and defenders and there are players with lower block numbers that are very good at keeping players out of the lane and also alter shots, keep teams shooting poorly from the floor inside or limit attempts. The key in the modern NBA is to have post defenders that can alter/prevent shots inside and also have the mobility to remain on the floor when teams switch and go small. These types of players are very valuable. Robert Williams and Bam Adebayo both are these types of players. There are others out there too like Jaren Jackson. Chet Holmgren is that type/style of defender. He wouldn't thrive in the league 20 years ago when standard post defenders were not venturing out from the paint. If the game was the same way, then Kessler or Williams or Koloko would be more valuable. There is a lot of talk about team defenders, but there isn't even a general agreement on what that means. A system that is well ran can help hide a single bad defender, and it can let guys focus on their strengths defensively - but a lot of times, when they say "good team defense" it is a team with multiple strong defenders and someone that can really cover multiple spots like Green in GS. As for Chet as an offensive player. We know he will score from 3 and he will finish inside well as a cutter and in transition. What we don't know if he will ever be someone you give the ball to and he puts the ball on the floor and scores like the top scorers in the league. He did do it sometimes late in the season, but can he do it in quantity? I don't know, but if we knew he could do that, he would be a future MVP and generational player. I think he is worth the #1 pick even if he is a 15-20 point a game scorer in his prime because of his defense, his efficiency and motor.
Teams have tried this.... having excellent perimeter defenders that cause turnovers on the perimeter and that give post players more time to get over, but it is very hard to do and even then you need to have some defensive post presence inside or have a perimeter player that can also guard the post. The Warriors get away with it because they have Draymond Green. The Bulls in the 90's got away with it because they had exceptional defenders at 1-4.
You have to take into account volume when making claims of "best". If you would have said "most efficient" then it would have been a statement of fact. Chet wasnt even the "best" player on his team. Just an example of how box stats can be a little misleading when looking at the landscape and not applying context. If Chet were putting up the same efficiency with a bigger workload he would be consensus #1 with nary a person offering resistance. His projections depend on a bunch of boxes being checked. If he checks them all within the first few years the kid will be on his way to Springfield, but its also why many of the same experts think Chet has the highest bust probability out of the top 3 guys because a very precise chain of events have to unfold for him to reach that ceiling. All that just focusing on ball skills for me and not even mentioning the very real physical concerns. My hard brake on Chet as far as potential is concerned is his ability to create with the ball at the next level. For himself and for others. I would hope that such a high pick would be able to do that as soon as possible for his new team regardless of position when considering the playoff picture and the conversations being had about those teams and how they view strategy with their personnel.
I find it a little weird some people are so hung up on Holmgren as shot blocker, as though it's the be all end all of his defensive value. If that were all he brought, or is expected to bring, he wouldn't be in the top pick discussion. I expect him to be at his best against small lineups, and as a mobile 4 in traditional lineups.
No, Chet Holmgren was the best player on his team. Timme scored more points and had more assists.... but Timme also took 50% more shots and turned the ball over more. Holmgren was the vastly better rebounder, shot blocker, got more steals and also was the better three point shooter and free throw shooter. That doesn't even get into the fact that Timme is an upper classman. As far as his ability to create with the ball, he gets a lot of leeway because he is so dominant defensively. From a post player taken at the top of the draft I want someone that can be a rim protector...... so I guess when you get down to it, we just have a difference of opinion? I am willing to accept that Holmgren will likely be a #2 option long term if I get someone that makes an elite impact defensively.
He is the most dominant defensive player in this draft and in at least the last decade, and honestly longer than that. He is a good one one one post defender, he is a good shoot blocker straight up or from the weak side. He is good at switches, he has an elite second step that allows him to catch up to penetrators when they are behind him. He is seldom out of place defensively, he has excellent instincts when to come over on switches. He has a very high motor and never gives up plays. He is good defensively at just about everything. I have seen some say he gets pushed around in one on one match ups inside, but while it is true sometimes he gets pushed over, the stats show he is overall even very good at that. He is the rate guy that can impact an entire team defensively by having him on the court.
Sounds about right. I have my doubts that Chet will be able to switch as well as the names mentioned defensively in this conversation because he will need more than length to help him vs NBA scoring threats and offensive game plans built around neutralizing him as a defender, but thats why he can work at his game - like all the other prospects can. Same goes for his cutting/slashing. Once you put a body on Chet his trajectory is changed. He wont be a very good screen man either until he can offer some physical resistance. Hopefully he can be more than a shot buoy on the arc waiting for guards to find him. Team defense requires communication, a precise system that explains its goals and what everyone's role should be. Like GS - Draymond Green is the defensive captain that gets everyone in the right spot, but immediately he can turn into the point forward at the drop of a dime. Can hit the 3 pointer and forces a team to account for him and they do - even when he's only taking 6 shots per game, but is everyone OK with Chet being that type of player with a top 3 pick? Boston didnt take the defensive leap until Udoka took over and they had the same personnel. Golden State has a tried and true system that may very well win that core ring #4. Dallas is doing its best impression of the MDA Rockets, but IMO that gimmicky offense is now easy to contain especially by a team (GS) who faced the epitome of that philosophy and still came away victorious. If your 3 isnt falling you better have another trick up your sleeve - what will be Chets counter if his 3 pointer abandons him like it did in the NCAA tourney?
What did you think about Hollinger’s take that the sample size for advanced stats is too small and that Chet actually might not be great in switches? How I feel about Chet vs the other two really hinges on that question. Wish I could see a reel of every instance he got caught in a switch to make up my own mind. @D-rock curious on your thoughts on this as well.
I think that guy's argument was that Edwards and Tatum have the size and athleticism to be good defenders. Trae Young has physical limitations that are harder to overcome. I kind of see the point, put people with potential in the right situation and scheme and they will improve. Andrew Wiggins was one of the least committed defenders I've ever seen in Minnesota and now he's a plus wing defender on the best defense in the league. The question is whether Paolo's defensive issues can be resolved. If not, does his offensive potential outweigh them?
I guess its a matter of perspective. Timme taking the most shots and turning the ball over more could be a basic function of higher usage. Paolo walked onto a team of 5 star guys with some upperclassmen too and became the man. I have a hard time just shrugging off Chets beta style of ball in deferring to upperclassmen or any other player on a team when he's supposed to be the best player in the game or on his team and was perfectly fine just watching the action as catch and shoot guy. I worry that Chet wont even be a viable #2 at the NBA level, but I agree he should be immediately impactful on defense and should have some highlights in transition, I just hope he doesnt struggle defensively because then what are you left with?
You cite Wiggins early defensive lapses and struggles and then when he joins a team that has a very methodical approach to defense he looks better, but you have reservations that the same could be for Banchero? Thats ... interesting. In the same light I see the GS team as a group 1-5 that can all put pressure on the defense and wear down opponents by simply playing great offense on every single play.
Define "production". I think he performed fine but he still has more of a "amazing role player" vs "bona-fide star" aspect to his game. All 3 of the PF prospects have glaring warts. Last year Cade and Jalen had some warts, but their ceilings were so ridiculously high that it almost didn't matter. And they turned out to prove everyone right for the most part. There isn't a player like that in this draft. Here is Chet's production against the quality teams (9) he played: vs Arkansas - 11 pts 14 reb 2 blks .556% vs Memphis - 9 pts 9 reb 4 blks .571% vs BYU - 20 pts 17 reb 5 blks .643% vs BYU - 12 pts 7 reb 5 blks .714% vs TTU - 5 pts 11 reb 2 blks .250% vs Alabama - 10 pts 11 reb 4 blks .333% vs Duke - 16 pts 7 reb 3 blks .615% Vs UCLA - 15 pts 6 reb 4 blks .75% vs Texas - 2 pts 5 reb 2 blks .33% AVG: 11.1 pts 9.6 reb 3.4 blks Let's compare that to Evan Mobley (26 games) a year ago at USC: vs BYU 17-11-0 vs UCONN - 17-7-4 vs Colorado - 12-7-2 vs Utah - 3-5-3 vs Arizona - 19-11-1 vs Arizona State - 19-13-6 vs Washington - 17-6-2 vs Washington State - 16-6-2 vs Oregon State- 12-13-2 vs California - 25-8-2 vs Stanford - 23-11-2 vs UCLA - 9-9-4 vs Washington - 17-7-4 vs Washington State - 20-11-6 vs Arizona State - 22-9-3 vs Arizona - 23-5-4 vs Oregon - 11-5-4 vs Colorado - 13-5-1 vs Utah - 11-8-1 vs Stanford - 10-8-2 vs UCLA - 13-11-3 vs Utah - 26-9-5 vs Colorado - 26-9-5 vs Kansas - 10-13-3 vs Oregon - 10-8-2 vs Gonzaga - 17-5-0 AVG: 16.1 ppg 8.5 reb 2.8 blks Not sure how you would describe Chet's current offensive game other than anemic. I think juvenile is how I'd like to word it because I've seen videos of him showing some handle and separation ability. It's clearly worse than Evan Mobley's offensive production. Both are worse than Paolo (and Smith) by a significant margin. Clearly Gonzaga didn't trust it enough to employ it throughout the season, but it might be locked in there somewhere. His standout game was clearly the BYU game. His block numbers are clearly great. His offense was again....bad. It was passable for what he was tasked to do but deflating for what was seen on him in high school to what was expected of him in college. He deferred to Timme and that's fine but I wouldn't say his flashes were anything that stood out. That's what I refer to as his potential and why you'd take him #1 overall. The hopes that he'll be more than he is (Dirk-esque with defense). If his whole career is a 12 pts 10 rebounds type of guy then....no he isn't worth a Top 3 selection. I'd much rather go with Ivey, Banchero or Sharpe and find a 3 and D guy in the teens. Where do you see Chet hitting his ceiling? 25/12/3 blks and being able to guard twitchy guards on the perimeter? I do think calling Chet more "productive" than either of Smith or Banchero is a little hyperbolic.
I personally think Banchero's defensive issues are overblown. People talk about him like he's a turnstile, but he's clearly capable of playing defense on the perimeter. I've compared his defense to Tobias Harris', who many thought was a tweener. Harris isn't a lockdown guy but he isn't a liability at all IMO. Even someone like Danilo Gallinari was capable of playing SF for the majority of his career and Banchero is much better athletically. Lauri Markkanen just started the whole season at SF for a good defensive Cavs team. So when people knock Banchero's defense I do believe they are nitpicking or going a bit overboard, but that's probably because they are comparing him to possible plus defenders at the top of the draft board.
I know this taking just part of the premise in your post, but if Chet winds up 12/10/4 blks with elite defense in all facets, floor spacing, and a Mobley like ability to just not make mistakes/swing the ball to the right person on offense, I am totally good with that. It’s more how likely is it that Chet is a game changing defender for me. We’ve already got a potential top tier elite scorer in Jalen and a potential very good scorer and passer in Sengun. We can find more points in FA and in other drafts.
