[ClutchFans] Podcast: Is Paolo Banchero in Houston's future?

Podcast keeps restarting for me when Bima starts talking about getting the third pick.

 

Pick BPA with our top pick and then package some combination of Wood, Tate, EG, Nwaba, maybe a rookie from 2021 class, plus #17, and maybe a protected future FRP to move up in the 7-13 range.

 

Worked great for me. Thank you Clutch!

 

Good players change the complexion of the game whether on offense or defense. While he could be a good scorer I don’t see Banchero having that much effect on either end. Smith has that ability to change games merely with shooting and he is a better man defender. Rockets could be very dangerous with Smith and Green launching from deep. If Rockets are afraid Magic will take him they are likely looking to ship their 17th pick in a deal. It will be very interesting come draft day.

 

Are you suggesting we pass on any of the top 3 prospects for a second round pick?

 

Spotify working great. Thanks Clutch.

 

Brilliant

 

I chuckled when Clutch asked if there's any way we could get the 4th pick along with keeping the 3rd lol. Would be nice but talk about a pipe dream.

I think you take BPA at 3 and try and move up from 17. For me, ANYONE is on the table outside of Green if you can get a pick in the 4-12 range.

Stone seems to know what he's doing so I got trust in him. Gonna be a fun draft night that's for sure.

 

I didn't have any problem listening to the podcast. In fact, hearing it was better than it's ever been for me. In other words, @BimaThug finally got a good mike! Heck, I thought he was an imposter for a moment. "Who is this guy?" All kidding aside, Bima's improved sound really made a difference. The two of you, and I liked that you called him your cohost, always give us an excellent podcast and this one was no exception.

You guys were dancing back and forth about Paolo Banchero. We all know how you feel about him, and for good reason. For a while, it's been looking like Jabari and Chet are going 1st or 2nd, depending on which mock draft you look at, but Banchero has been getting some good writeups lately. He just might end up going before the Rockets pick.

Among the 3 at the top of the draft, Smith is clearly the outstanding shooter, as well as the best defender (Chet's arguably better, of course, but I'm worried about how thin he is) with the height and physique you want at the 4 in today's NBA (or at any other time, in my opinion). I'm beginning to think Smith and Banchero will go one and two, not necessarily in that order. That would have Chet falling to the Rockets, and if that happens, the GARM will go nuts! I think Chet's middle name is controversial.

 

Great analysis as always, thanks @Clutch and @BimaThug ! FWIW, some of my takeaway thoughts:

• Both Paolo and Green can create off the dribble, but I wouldn't dub either one as "heliocentric." Green especially has shown ability to work off the ball, and nothing in Banchero's game precludes him from being able to something similar. I was very much a Banchero skeptic until I saw his passing numbers. Given both can pass, move without the ball, and be reasonable 3 point threats, they should mesh on offense very well.
• This playoffs are another data point in showing how much of a cheat code a tall playmaker can be. That tall playmaker doesn't even have to be athletic, just savvy. Green looks like an offensive savant, but at the highest levels, it seems very difficult to overcome not having a forward sized playmaker. Boston has it in Tatum, Dallas obviously, and Warriors are superlative, but Curry is that much better when Green is making decisions. The Heat don't, and that might be why where offense can struggle so mightily at times.
• On the topic of playoffs, who is the best center left still playing, Looney, Powell, Robert Williams, or Adebayo? None of those are traditional big men, and would all be considered undersized. It seems like the best teams either don't need those guys, or value the skills/athleticism that the shorter players bring them. This is why I agree with Hollinger in that Holmgren is a huge risk unless you think he is a surefire all-star. Even then, he can get played off the floor (as Jokic, Lopez, and Ayton were at times...Embiid too but he was hurt so giving him a pass).
• Is every one already out on Garuba? He was hurt, and his offense looked awful, but squint hard enough and it's easy to see how he would be more in line with a modern playoff center as a defensive/switchable stalwart with decent passing, and maybe one day enough shooting/rim running to make the offense work. Is there a world where our best frontcourt is Garuba and Paolo, with Sengun as energy 6th man in the spirit of Carl Herrerra?
• Obviously it's hard to see Paolo and Sengun fitting. As much as I love Sengun, (which is a lot), if he was in this year's draft and you could only pick one, would you pick Sengun or Banchero? I think most reasonable people would still say Paolo. Sengun's passing is incredible, but Paolo's is good enough to still be a plus, and his face up game is so good his scoring/passing package is probably more valuable than Sengun's scoring/passing package. It's hard to justify passing on a player who is a better version of the one you already have even if you are doing "BPA."
• Which leads me to my last point: is anyone actually worrying about Paolo if we didn't have Sengun? I don't see anyone arguing he doesn't fit with Wood or KPJ, or saying that another player is destined to be better than he is that will be there at 3. I think most people see the potential theory of a team Green/Paolo: two primary offensive options, one big and one small, both with good enough midrange numbers to make those good shots but outside shooting potential and passing potential, and both theoretically good enough defenders that you could build a team of 3-D role players around them and win a lot. Sengun is the main issue, because he and Paolo are too similar in their defensive weaknesses, and no modern team can survive with two below average (optimistically, average) big men defenders. To this I say: bring it. If Rockets think Paolo is a future star, draft him, even if they see Sengun as a future star. It's infinitely better to have two stars that don't fit than a star and solid starter that do. Let them grow, and by the time you have to make a decision, we'll have a better idea of how KPJ, Tate, Wood, Christopher, Garuba and KMJ fit on this team. Rockets will then know whether to prioritize, another big, wing, or point guard, and hopefully have an expendable star at their disposal to fill in the holes.

 

If there is anyway to get into Portland's pick from 17 do it and get them guy you love before he's gone. Use the capital if they'll take it. If Portland won't play ball wait and see if 13 has what you want and make it happen. Otherwise BPA at 17 it is. Someone is likely to fall at 13 like Griffin or Duran.

 

Excellent post!

 

Spotify works great.

 

thanks Clutch; Spotify works!

 

With respect to trade up candidate teams, it’s worth mentioning that PJ Washington represented Charlotte at the lottery. I don’t think u send a guy to represent u at the lottery and then trade him a month or two later. I thought it was odd, because he certainly was the subject of trade rumors at the deadline. Not sure what to make of it, but he might not be as available as people think.

 

By playmaker do you mean passer or scorer? It sounds like you mean passer because you mention Draymond Green making decisions for the Warriors, but he's 6'6". You say the Heat don't have tall playmakers when Butler is 6'7" and Adebayo is 6'9". Luka and Butler are the same height. And you include Tatum as a playmaker even though he seems to be primarily a scorer. Adebayo is basically a point center and has only taken a backseat in passing duties because they added Lowry in the offseason.

It's just weird that you call out the Heat for not having tall playmakers when by either definition (scorer or passer) they have more than any team left.

 

Sengun's and Paolo's fit is almost immaterial to me. We assume they'd both start, but what if they are better staggered with some overlap? I personally like Sengun as a point forward/point center, 6th man if we take Paolo with the 3rd pick.

 

Portland's pick is possible, but it would require them missing out on Detroit's Jerami Grant. Otherwise, I think you have 3 or 4 other teams you have potential to move up with.