No need to move up...Forget about giving up a bunch of assets. BPA - Banchero should be there @3. It's 17 that we need to move up from.
Imaging having such bad reads that you trade up from #3 to #1 to draft the worst player of the 3. Jabari Smith Jr is closer to Ivey than he is to Chet and Paolo.
The reason this wont work is because Orlando would call OKC and tell them HOU plan on taking their guy. OKC would end up making a deal with ORL for No.1 or just say no and take one of the other two guys.
Yes we can all say this now in hindsight. My point was more that, at the time even if the biggest Harden Supporters would not have thought he would be arguably better than Westbrook. The Thunder knew Harden wanted more money. They knew that Harden had been out all night on the Miami strip during a Finals where he disappeared, whereas Russ was the perfect role model and citizen. You can argue all you want about why not keep the 3 guards/wings now, but no successful championship team had been made at the point led by 3 guards/wings. So, they opted for a more "time tested" strategy of the athletic big man because they were on a budget. Even if they had said screw it and played out that season, I doubt they sign him to a max and pay the Tax for 5 years afterwards. Just picking all a bunch of talented ill fitting parts, forces the Rockets hands to make that choice probably earlier than they would like to. Sure it seems like a good problem to have, but windows are small, and opportunities can be changed by the smallest of decisions and mistakes
To get the number 1 pick from the Magic, I would trade Wood and the 3rd. That should entice the Magic if Banchero is their guy.
This. You worry about fit with the #2 overall pick, first team all rookie, human highlight reel who was the best first year player in the league for the last month of the season. You don't worry about the fit with the flashy rookie role player turned end-of-season starter. He's a great passer, he should be able to fit with others. If he can't, whatever, figure it out.
The fit with Sengun is a secondary concern. The largest concern is that taking Banchero can box you in defensively and make it a lot harder to build a great team. I think you still take Banchero at #3, but if you can move up for Chet you do what you can to make it happen.
Just because, up to that point where OKC reached the finals, a 3 guard/wing lineup has never won it all doesn't mean that was the reason why OKC blew up the team. Point blank, they blew up the team because of the luxury tax. It wasn't because the parts weren't fitting or the players didn't want to play together--their owner was so freaked out about paying the luxury tax that they lowballed Harden in hopes he would sign so that they can have their cake and eat it too. That OKC team was on the cusp of greatness and everyone in the league knew it. As for Harden partying in Miami, sure he's a partyer but let's not dismiss the fact that the Heat players went on record in saying that their main objective on defense was to stop Harden. https://www.oklahoman.com/story/spo...cused-on-taking-out-james-harden/61064687007/ Prior to GSW's championship run no one thought that a defensive minded power forward could also be the primary facilitator on defense, leading the team to a championship either. The Warriors almost had their own James Harden moment when they were about to trade Thompson for Kevin Love but backed out.
I don’t want to be like the thunder hoarding picks and not doing **** with them Cash that **** in and grab the player you want. **** offer guys like Tate to try to clear some roster minutes too KPJ/Green/Jabari on the perimeter with Sengun playmaking ability…. That’s all I’m saying
You're likely right about the where the pick lands, but you never know. The BKN pick was supposed be no earlier than 28 this year, and they were literally one loss away from being in the lottery. Houston's pick last season was supposed to be in the late 20's, which is why it was only 1-4 protected to OKC. Teams picks can change and it happens fast. If Giannis gets hurt for an extended period, it could easily be a lottery pick. Look how far GS fell as well the previous few years due to injuries. Aside from all that, the real value of the Mil pick is for a star player. We will need as many first rounders as possible, and yes, even late first rounders have value as they were used in the aforementioned trades to land CP3 and Harden. I want Chet pretty bad as well, but I think the if a trade up were to happen, it would be for present assets instead of future ones. Just my take, I could be wrong. To your point, we traded two future assets last draft to land Sengun, so maybe you're on to something, although the goals were a little different last draft than I believe they are now. We'll see.
You are missing my point. Yes they were facing a luxury tax threshold. But they weren't just going to run that team back with $100+ million cost after lux tax. Arguing that they just should have in hindsight ignores the facts that OKC never would have. We should all understand that with the Rockets owner tf -- the tax matters. So just saying "pay it anyways" or who cares ignores major factors at play. So if they weren't going to go over the tax, they have to get rid of a player. If OKC was SO sure that Harden would become that good and that a 3 wing line up would win a title, of course they would have amnestied Perkins or traded Ibaka instead. They weren't that sure and didn't trust it could work, so they made their choice. I'm not saying the partying was the main factor, but I'm certain it definitely hurt Harden's case to stay with the Thunder. All of this is simply to say taking the BPA available every time in a rebuild no matter what is not the best strategy.
The Brooklyn pick moving this high up the board was a culmination of bad things happening. Like what are the odds that one of their best players sitting out most of the season for personal beliefs + one of their best players getting injured and out for at least a month + one of their best players forcing his way onto a 2nd team in a year? Unless Giannis tears his ACL or achilles next year the Bucks will still be, at worst, an above average team. Moving a pick with an unknown position right now is a bit more enticing than moving it during the year next year when you more or less know where the Bucks will end up in the standings. Among all of the 1st round picks we've accumulated since the Harden trade the Milwaukee 1st is the most expendable. I would only trade those Brooklyn picks for a legit All-Star player in return.
My worry with Banchero's fit is with Green, not with Sengun. Unless the goal is to model this team after the 09-10 Lakers, I foresee problems.
We'll agree to disagree on the OKC fiasco and refocus on your point of taking the BPA every time in a rebuild is not the best strategy. I mean wouldn't that really depend on the context/situation of the rebuild? If your team don't have any legit all-star level players you have to keep taking the BPA and just see who's going to rise to the top. If you have, say, one all-star level player then maybe you can start looking at fit vs BPA. If you have two all-star level players or two players on an immediate trajectory to that level then fit should be considered moreso. Having said that, the only player right now in our rebuilding core that has that potential is Green. I love Sengun and see his potential but I can't pencil him in there yet. So if you only have one player on that trajectory, taking the BPA is a no brainer. The other factor here is where your draft pick lands. If you're a rebuilding team and you're picking outside of the top 5, then fit might be the only way to not only address holes/weakness on your team but also minimize the risk/bust potential. However, if you're in the top 5 (or in the top 3 in the Rockets case), taking the BPA is the most sound way to go. Like if Stone evaluates all three prospects and deems that Holmgren is the one and can pick him, I'm not going to worry about how he fits with Sengun or vice versa. Or if Stone picks Ivey over whoever is left among the top 3 I'm not going to worry about how Porter or Jalen fits with Ivey or vice versa. The beauty of this year's draft is that we have a chance at take a player at #3 who is probably the BPA at #3 but can also address a need on defense too with either Jabari or Chet. If Paolo is left and is the one Stone selects, I'm fine with that even though his skillset "overlaps" Sengun's and his defense doesn't help the team's overall defense.
I wouldn't. There's a general consensus about first two picks but not absolute consensus. I think we stay patient and take multiple swings at it instead of being too short term focused
I'd be fine then negotiating with Orlando for No. 2 or letting them draft. I only see Orlando trading down if they want Paolo.
I realize it would take a major breakdown, which is why I started my response with "you're likely right". That said, we've seen 2 major breakdowns in the last 2 years that are relevant to the Rockets. 2021 was our own breakdown season, and 2022 was Brooklyn's. One more is again unlikely, but still worth keeping an eye on. I do agree that the time might be best to cash it in now, but I still think using that pick with the #17 and #3 is a significant overpay to draft players with so many question marks that may only go slot above #3 I think we are more likely to see a draft down with both our picks than up. For the record, I'm not sold on Smith, but am sold on Chet and think he could be the perfect fit next to Sengun.
