You know, after a nice night's rest, I'm starting to get really, really excited about the prospect of Banchero with the Rockets. You have your 1-2 scoring punch with Green and Banchero, and a solid scoring/facilitating duo in KPJ and Sengun. Add a solid 3&D wing, and baby...
Find me an example of a GM trading from a top 3 pick to 5 or lower regardless of if your guy will be there or not, because stone is getting fired if Sharpe doesn't win rookie of the year or avg 20ppg. There no is amount of assist that will make up for moving down and drafting a bust.
At the end of the day we will get a talented player at the 3rd pick. I'm excited to watch the Rockets again. Jalen + Paolo + Sengun will be must watch TV. We will tank one more year (not on purpose, but because we aren't good enough.) and then hopefully become a play in team the year after
The thing that absolutely confuses me is the Jabari being consensus tier with Chet apparently. To me, Chet is a tier of his own. He might fail because of that size/frailty/injury issues, but his upside is bar none a class of his own. I don't see how Jabari fits in with him. I see comps for Jabari as Horford, JJJ, Wendell Carter. People might say woah woah woah... Wendell Carter ?!?!?! Yeah, Carter shot 40% from 3 in college, too - not the same volume, but recall that was a Duke team that also had Bagley. Those are solid players. Horford has been solid forever. Is that a tier with Chet?? I've heard stuff like Kawhi or Kris Middleton.... what?? how does one get those comps? I mean, i get people are grasping for great offensive players that aren't amazing multi-dribble drivers, cause Jabari basically has one dribble in the half court. But he doesn't seem dribble-drivey, guard or wing like to me at all. He just happens to operate outside the paint and has a great shot. I do not discount that great shot. a big that can shoot 40% from 3, space the floor, and play great defense... heck yeah, i want that. I'm just not fully sold on him in the Chet tier?!?!
Hawks are happy with Trae Young, if we really want to talk about a mistake it was the suns passing on Luka they just hired his Coach that year and passed on drafting him rumor is the owner override the GM (who wanted Luka) for the home town kid.
1. Chet Holmgren (Orlando) Holmgren is the best overall prospect in this draft based on his upside and skill set. He compares favorably to Evan Mobley. He doesn't move as well defending the perimeter and he is more mistake prone. However, he is longer, a better offensive rebounder, a better post defender, has a lower center of gravity, is a better shooter and passer and he plays with a chip on his shoulder. There will be concerns about his strength and ability to put the ball on the floor in the half court, but even if he never becomes a one on one player he can still be the best player in this draft. Expect teams like OKC, DET and HOU to try to move up to the #1 spot if it is possible. When it's all said and done I expect Orlando to take Holmgren. 2. Jabari Smith (OKC) While the Thunder moved up in the draft, they did not quite get up high enough to get the player that they covet (Holmgren). Last year Presti would have taken Mobley at #1 or #2 in the draft. They really want a long and rangy post defender that can switch. That fits Holmgren perfectly. The Thunder have nearly twenty picks over the next six years and they may try to overwhelm Orlando for Holmgren but assuming that doesn't happen, they will take the clear cut second best prospect in this draft, Jabari Smith. He can do a lot of the things they want to do defensively and he also stretches the floor. There is a slight chance here that OKC decides they want a player more likely to contribute right away and take Banchero. However, I don't see this happening unless they trade down with Houston. 3. Paolo Banchero (HOU) Houston will likely be trying to trade up to get Holmgren or Smith. Assuming that doesn't happen and the Rockets don't trade down a few slots for multiple picks, they will take the player that can put the ball on the floor and score. Banchero is a bad defensive fit with Sengun and doesn't really address the Rockets biggest concern (defense) but he potentially can be a high scoring option along with Jalen Green. The Rockets general manager has already alluded to the possibility of trading this pick. If the Rockets become enamored with someone like Shaedon Sharpe they could trade down and pick up an extra pick. It is possible that the #5 pick and other considerations could go here from Detroit. 4. Keegan Murray (SAC) Sometimes teams don't take the best player available and the Kings could be that sort of team. The weakest GM in basketball is Monte McNair. He is in the last year of his contract and has an owner that constantly meddles and actually directs moves at times. McNair has to get the Kings into the play in this year or he is gone. With that in mind he wants a player that is well rounded and will make an immediate impact and fit the needs of the team. That player is Keegan Murray who can score, shoot and is capable of playing decent defensively under Brown. Players like Jayden Ivey and Shaedon Sharpe arguably have higher upsides but they will take longer to make a major impact. 5. Jayden Ivey (DET) This is a perfect match. He can share ball handling duties with Cunningham and his athleticism will cover some of the weaknesses Cunningham has. He has the potential of being a star if he improves his decision making and is more under control. Ivey at #5 is the steal of the draft. 6. Shaedon Sharpe (IND) The Pacers ownership does not believe in tanking or rebuilding because of their market size. If Murray or Ivey is here they will take them regardless of fit. With both off the board they take the clear cut best player left in Sharpe who will likely take a couple of years to be a good rotational player. His upside is enormous though. They could possibly trade this pick as well to get an established player or a lower pick and a player. 7. Bennedict Mathurin (POR) This is a pick that is very likely to be dealt. It isn't high enough to get an instant contributor that is above average and Portland wants to win right now because of Lillard. They need a long post player that can defend and rebound inside like Mark Williams but they also have discussed adding yet another guard to Simmons and Lillard and running a three guard set. Sochan and Daniels make sense from a defensive perspective but they likely wont contribute enough offensively right away. AJ Griffin is the best overall talent on the board but he is very young. Mathurin is long enough to play the 3 with Lillard and Simmons next to him and he has had moments of solid defense. His game has the potential to make an impact now. 8. Jeremy Sochan (NO) This is another pick that could be dealt for an impact player as the Pelicans are under pressure to win now. They really need improved defense and a wing defender to off set the limitations of Zion and Ingram. Sochan defensively has tremendous upside and likely can help the Pelicans defensively right away. Offense is a work in progress but scoring won't be a problem for the Pelicans. 9. AJ Griffin (SA) This pick is absolutely wide open as SA can use help everywhere and they are not afraid to take a prospect. Griffin has the highest overall upside left on the board. If he gets some of his athleticism back he can be a genuine star. He shoots very well, is very young and has a strong body. At worst he is a very good role player. Mark Williams is another possible player at this pick, as is Dyson Daniels and Johnny Davis. 10. Johnny Davis (WAS) Why take Davis? Because the Wizards are not clearly rebuilding or contending and while the fit is poor, Davis does have the ability to help right away. The ceiling from an athletic standpoint is more limited but he can be a long term starter COMMENTS: This isn't my listing of the top prospects but my guess as to what happens in the draft, AT THIS POINT. We will learn more once there are workouts. This draft especially could be completely thrown out of whack with a trade or two. A lot of teams are looking for fit over talent. I will be curious to see how high Jeremy Sochan and Dyson Daniels go. Neither will likely ever be stars offensively but both have excellent physical attributes and defenders and are still raw. I also think that Mark Williams could go quite high because of fit. The draft order has hurt AJ Griffin and Shaedon Sharpe the most. Both are very gifted but unlikely to contribute for a couple years and are very young for their class. There are less traditional lottery teams in this lottery this year so one or both could slip. There will be a number of good post defenders in the late first and second rounds. Blake Wesley is criminally underrated and it is possible that a team like the Spurs take him a dozen or more spots before some expect.
Chet is the top player in this draft and we are heading towards him being a bump ahead of the others. As for Jabari, the appeal is that his game is very unlikely to bust and he is plug and play on almost any team. His three point shooting is going to translate very well and he can do it in volume too. He is long and a good athlete so his shot isn't going to be blocked or altered often. He also can score in translation well and can take and make some very hard mid range shots. You add all that together and you have a 15-20 point a game scorer in a couple years and that is without really improving his ball handling or finishing inside. That isn't all star but it is very good. Defensively he doesn't impact the overall defense like Holmgren does but he is a good one on one player that is quick enough to switch. So he is at worst average defensively and could be very good if he has the ambition. He isn't likely to get a GM fired for drafting him. So he is a #2-#3 type player on a good playoff team down the road. I will say that he does remind me a little too much of Marvin Williams at time who went over Chris Paul. The comparisons to Leonard or Paul George are 10% chance outcomes and best case scenarions. Leonard and George were not great at putting the ball on the floor and creating either when they were the same age as Jabari, but expecting him to reach those heights is not playing the odds. Paolo Banchero is not in that group to a lot of people because he has warts that a lot of people do not think he can fix. He is not great moving his feet side ways, and he isn't a great shot blocker or offensive rebounder. So the thought is that at best he will be adequate defensively and there are concerns about his ability to switch well enough so he will have to be covered there. However, we also know that he is very mobile in a straight line, he creates very well for a man his size, that he isn't a complete waste on the glass, that he is very good at putting the ball on the floor and that he will likely be at least an average outside shooter. That means that he should score 20 points a game or more.
Respect Nook, but did you know that Paolo had more offensive rebounds than Chet? (68 to 57) does that mean that offensive rebounding should be a concern for Chet as well?
Jabari is in Chet’s tier, because of his shot which is better and his body. Anybody looking at Jabari sees a Durant 3pt and 2pt pull-up. I was looking at his photos and he looks like he already has a lot of muscle and the frame to be Giannis like. Both have high motors and work ethic and are a good fit (unlike Banchero) so I would be happy with either.
So I understand the whole "Banchero doesn't solve the Rockets' defensive woes, and he's too similar to Sengun" concern. But the same logic would apply to guys like Sharpe and Ivey, who are not known for their defensive prowess and are somewhat redundant with Green on the roster. If you're thinking it makes sense to pass on Banchero or move down to take one of those guys, doesn't the same problem arise? If you're trading down, I almost think you have to be looking for a better two-way guy like Murray, Daniels, Griffin, etc.
There are 3 guys at the top of this draft who compares to those 3. Why does this matter when he is not going to be a c and since when do we care about being a great offensive rebounder? We actually don't know how Holmgren is going to be as a switch defender in the NBA as well and he averaged more Rebounds than Smith and about 1 /12 less than Holmgren and all you can say he is not a complete waste on the glass? He is the most polished and complete offensive player of the 3 and is still only 19, yet you think Smith will average more than him? Talk of Damning with faint praise. Anyway, always interesting, we just both have our favorite guys. What is the scuttlebutt about Holmgren being able to create his own shot?
