It's a weird premise right? If Banchero is truly better than Jabari/Chet, why wouldn't the other teams like OKC and ORL recognize this. For us this is a hobby, for those teams they have fully staffed people looking into this. Predicting the future is tough but I wager official NBA teams have a lot more resources at their disposal. Most GMs especially with their top pick think like Stone and go for BPA. If they don't go for Paolo, what does that say about their opinion of him.
There is no consensus #1 pick. We don't have a LeBron, a Yao, or a Shaq on the board. Other #1 pick misses: 2017: Markelle Fultz 2013: Anthony Bennett 2007: Greg Oden 2006: Andrea Bargnani 2005: Andrew Bogut 2001: Kwame Brown Other #3 picks hits: 2018: Luka Doncic 2017: Jayson Tatum 2014: Joel Embiid 2009: James Harden 2007: Al Horford 2003: Carmelo Anthony 2001: Pau Gasol 1984: Michael Jorden 1982: Dominique Wilkins
What is it maybe with percentages? Say within last 20 drafts, which % would you say was hits for #1 pick compared to hits at #3. #3 will still have hits but I imagine the % might be lower? Did it for #5 pick while back, last 20 years... it ended up being something like 1/3 chance hitting it big and 2/3 meh or bust. A GM with a high pick can bust, but to rely on another GM to miss And somehow assume your GM knows better is possible...but a bit of leap. Higher pick is always better, including if you want to trade down and fleece other GMs (to get more).
The key is that there is no obvious consensus #1. Draft boards are all over the map. I have a hunch, 10 years down the line, that Jaden Ivey will be the most impactful player in this draft.
I suspect…each of the Top 3 picks could realistically have different Top 3 pickers prefer them. Each may get the man of their dreams. Perhaps. Draft night will have each of the three GMs proclaiming that, in any regard.
All three of these players can get their own shot. We don't really have that now. Chet is like super tall so it's just make or miss for him. Smith is like Durant so good luck stopping that. And Banchero has a really good fadeaway and footwork. Chet will be able to pass because of his height. Banchero is good at looking over the top for entry. I don't know much about Smith's playmaking or passing, but he look ok. So, I just like it all.
Jabrari is the clear cut #1, but Banchero should go 2nd. Good news is that he won’t because teams and more importantly their fanbases fantasize about getting guys like Chet and adding 40 pounds to become like the next Mobley. Adding this weight would only bring Chet to college sized Mobley and to me that’s not worth a top two pick. He’ll be gone by three because of fan pressure and hype and this works out perfect for us as we won’t get saddled with a three year project.
That's the laziest comparison I have ever seen. "Well they're both tall, skinny and white." Bradley couldn't shoot 3's at 40% and he damn sure wasn't crossing anybody over. Chet literally crossed over Steph Curry when he was 16 years old. And it's not a fluke. He legitimately has guard skills at that height. Shawn Bradley was a post player and shot blocker but that's it. That's all he could do. He couldn't dribble. He couldn't pass. He couldn't shoot. And hell, I don't even think he was as good of a defender as Chet because Chet is just so much more fluid and mobile. This comparison literally makes me want to fight people.
Jalen's defense improved a lot through out the season. That's a positive sign. You rarely see a rookie improve that quick, let alone during his rookie season
wow lol give me that Chet ! I’m honestly happy with any of the top 3 . I really want Smith but if we can’t get him Chet or Banchero I’ll be content with .
Bold/Italics is a Superstar/Borderline Superstar Level Player. Can be a #1 on a playoff team. Bold is All Star Level Player. Can be a #2 on a playoff team. #1 Overall Picks of the Last 15 years: Cade Cunningham - Anthony Edwards - Zion Williamson - Deandre Ayton - Markelle Fultz - Ben Simmons - Karl Anthony Towns - Andrew Wiggins - Anthony Bennet - Anthony Davis - Kyrie Irving - John Wall - Blake Griffin - Derrick Rose - Greg Oden - Andrea Bargnani - Andrew Bogut 6 Superstar Level Players 2 All Star Level Players #2 Overall Picks of the Last 15 Years: Jalen Green - James Wiseman - Ja Morant - Marvin Bagley - Lonzo Ball - Brandon Ingram - DAngelo Russell - Jabari Parker - Victor Oladipo - Michael Kidd Gilchrist - Derrick Williams - Evan Turner - Hasheem Thabeet - Michael Beasley - Kevin Durant - Lamarcus Aldridge - Marvin Williams 3 Superstar Level Players 1 All Star Level Players #3 Overall Picks of the Last 15 Years: Evan Mobley - Lamelo Ball - RJ Barrett - Luka Doncic - Jayson Tatum - Jaylen Brown - Jahlil Okafor - Otto Porter - Bradley Beal - Enes Kanter - James Harden - OJ Mayo - Al Horford - Adam Morrison - Deron Williams 4 Superstar Level Players 5 All Star Level Players There are some that can obviously be debated as to whether or not they should be added to All Star Level (Simmons, Porter, Oladipo) but the 3rd pick and the 1st pick have produced more All Star/Superstar caliber players than the 2nd pick has. The 2nd pick seems littered with strike out home run swings with upside instead of safer swings with production.
There is a legit reason to be concerned with his frame holding up. Having said that, if everything about Holmgren was the same, except he was a black dude, a lot of his "question marks" wouldn't be getting brought up. Nonsense like the Bradley comps are comically absurd. Wembanyama isn't getting compared to Manute Bol by anybody.
More than half of that list is wrong. Jalen Green is already a superstar afterward leasing his pick to the 3 seed. The grizzles are better in the playoffs when Ja isn't playing. Brandon Ingram, Lonzo, and fultz are busts? Just wow.
