Sengun was the 3rd best post-up player in the NBA last year behind Jokic and Embiid. Points per postup, I believe. Unfortunately, we didn't give him the ball much.
https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/wizards/2022-nba-draft-chet-holmgren-has-highest-ceiling-class - The first thing you'll notice about Holmgren -- other than his size -- is his impressive skill on both ends of the floor. He's an elite shot-blocker (5.4 blocks per 40 minutes!) who can move his feet with perimeter players just enough for his long arms to impact a shot attempt. His instincts are off the charts as a shot blocker. He then has the guard skills on offense to bring the ball up the floor himself, score at all three levels or make a play for a teammate. He's the complete package as a seven-footer. - Aside from a dependable shooting stroke that should translate to the NBA, Holmgren is a sneaky-good finisher around the rim. He can score with either hand -- just as he can block shots with either hand -- and has the ball-handling and pedigree as a cutter to be an incredibly efficient offensive player. He shot nearly 74% on two-point attempts at Gonzaga, which is absurd. - Holmgren won the Gatorade Men's Basketball Player of the Year Award in 2021 before going to Gonzaga as the No. 1 high school recruit in the country. He averaged 20.8 points, 12.6 rebounds, 4.7 blocks and 4.4 assists on 68.2% shooting in his final high school season. Jayson Tatum, Bradley Beal and Karl-Anthony Towns represent past winners of the award.
I might cry if we don't get Chet ..... They might actually be a 7 or 8 seed just adding him to what we already have. That would be +22-26 wins.
Last season they were pretty solid offensively, some of the advanced stats showing them to be top tier. Where they failed at is defensively - they were dead last and it wasn't even close (until Portland pulled the plug). Their biggest issue was giving up points in the paint / at the rim. Much of that can be attributed to playing Wood at the 4/5 where he did next to nothing to protect the rim. If they improve to 20th defensively and stay where they are offensively .... I wouldn't count them out of the 7-8 spot. That is unless Stone has them tanking it up for a 3rd season but I think we've al had enough of that.
Fair enough, I’m just doubtful a rookie could increase a team’s win/loss record that dramatically. Not that I doubt Chet, it’s more I doubt he’ll be given the chance to stay on the court by the refs. How the principle of verticality is applied regarding Chet will be quite interesting.
I loved this mock for Houston. Holmgren and Daniels would have a huge impact on this team defensively.
Wouldn't be dissimilar to what happened with Cleveland and Mobley. Garland basically turned into a Top 5 PG in the league and Mobley gave them the defensive presence they needed.
How much of that was Jarret Allen? Not trying to tarnish Mobley, but if memory serves me correct as soon as Jarret Allen went down with injury Evan Mobley came back down to Earth. That stretch probably cost Mobley the rookie of the year award. It would seem Allen was the anchor, not Mobley. I would agree that Mobley had SOMETHING to do with the defensive improvement with CLE, but the team as a whole would have taken a big jump IMO. Their team drating didnt jump from like 25 to 5 because of a rookie, and I think some of that recency effect is clouding the expectations for Chet especially on THIS team and eventually it will invite more slander of the head coach as an out. I can see it now "It was Chets coach in college who couldnt unlock him and now its Silas who cant - he just needs a good coach" Chet would be a great help defender similar to Mobley. Less so on the perimeter and in the post, but Chet can shoot 3's way better than Mobley and can dribble the ball down the basketball court after a rebound - for whatever its worth.
I'm still of the camp that you can't win with a team built like that. Mobley can't create his own shot and has never really had that in his arsenal. He still doesn't. Allen is even worse. In the playoffs, team's shut down your #1 option so you need a #2 to keep them honest. With Mobley, I think Cleveland will be at best a 3-5 seed that could reach a conference finals. The Suns just got obliterated because Booker got shut down and no one else could score. Meanwhile, the Mavs won because Dinwiddie and Brunson could make shots. The Bucks won a title because of Middleton. I'm sold on Chet because I think he can create his own offense and shoot over the tops of defenses. But I'm alright with any of the other 4 for the same reason. Plodders like Ayton/Gobert and turn-styles like Towns are going to get you killed. I see Chet as more of a baby Durant with supreme defense. Plus he's waaay more of an alpha mentality than a guy like Towns or Ayton who are charmin soft. His size doesn't worry me at all with the attitude he has. But the Rockets are in such a fantastic position having Green and Sengun already. Even KPJ as a 4th option is awesome. Green with Ivey/Sharpe is still a crazy backcourt. KPJ in the Marcus Smart role with slightly worse defense but much better offense would be absolute hell for opposing defenses. If you overload Green you'd have KPJ or Sharpe/Ivey to deal with. Or Jabari Smith/Chet from the 3. Or freaking Banchero from anywhere inside the arc.
I've seen more creation ability from Mobley then from Chet. Mobley does not have a great 3 pointer yet so that will limit how much he can do with the ball in his hands. Thats where the projections for Chet come in. The thought being that he has a decent outside shot and his length with on or two dribbles would put him in the restricted area. If he can put that package together he should be shooting around 8-10 FTs a night. I just have my doubts that his lack of strength and marginal dribble drive ability will be able to get him there with little to no empirical evidence to back it up - especially in BIG GAMES. Im not sure Chet will be as insulated here as MObley was with CLE, but it might be close with KPJ coming into his own and hopefully the continued star path that Jalen is on. Anything is possible I guess and I agree that with some creativity you could make the roster work with any of the guys in debate dependent on what the vision is for Stone I suppose. This draft should tell us everything about him as a GM and what the best path forward will be.
