It's curious how Cameron's model doesn't like Brown's stuff but Sarris' does when you would think they would have similar inputs.
It is very interesting that the Astros Farm system is rated so low, but have been producing high quality players for a while now. They fill out the Astros team, and are very productive for other teams when utilized in trades too. Luis García wasn’t too highly rated, and he barely missed out on Rookie of the year, and he’s following up with an excellent sophomore year. To tell you the truth, I didn’t even have Luis Garcia on my radar of anything other than a middle reliever if he even succeeded in the majors. Pena, was not seen very favorable by anyone outside of Houston. The man isn’t even in baseball’s top 100. Even with his exceptionally good defensive ratings. And through 30+ games, is having a wonderful and productive rookie season. I think he’d be a top 3 in rookie of the year, and could actually win it. I honestly think that baseball is such a huge universe (international leagues, college teams, AAA, AA, High A, A ball, Lower A, the independent leagues, etc.) and so many things influence production on the field, that unless they are playing in the ML or better yet, in one of the top ML baseball markets, most relevant baseball writers go on hear-say. Watching the Astros minor league get overlooked so badly as being devoid of top talent, yet producing consistent and productive ML players plus frequent rookie of the year candidates; leads one to conclude that baseball writers only write what was on the cliff notes of scouts (or what info other teams want to divulge). Because, I would rather have a Luis Garcia and a Peña type guy, over a Scott Elarton or a Francis Martes. Baseball writers get a story (narrative) and will never relent. Look at Byron Buxton, writers ridiculed the Astros for getting Carlos Correa on a discount, and bypassing their selection of choice. Never mind that the Astros were smitten with Correa, and Correa justified their selection with years of All star play, before moving on via free agency. And after all these years Buxton starts a season like a stud, and the baseball writers are salivating that their assessment back in 2012 were right.
In so much as farm system values are typically defined by their current “prospects” (which are players who haven’t reached the majors yet), yes. However, I think a good point y’all are making is that different orgs seem to get more out of their systems relative to their draft positions, bonus pools, and scout ratings. So my thinking is that there should probably be an additional “development advantage”adjustment/rating for prospects in systems with good development/scouting track records.
The farm value goes down; the farm reputation goes up. The overall org talent level goes up. Not having highly ranked farm clubs doesn't mean much. It's stuff for the interweb to talk about but the baseball FO doesn't evaluated on their quality of their farm system. It gets evaluated on the quality of the big league club, then the overall organizational talent level. Having a highly ranked farm system usually means you're not in your competitive window..... or you're the Dodgers.
I would not rate any development advantage of the organization as value in the prospects. I'd see that as double counting. Not mostly Click's fault, but I really like the prospects from Luhnow that have graduated recently (Alvarez, Tucker, Valdez, Javier, Urquidy, Garcia, Meyers, McCormick, and soon to be Pena) than the guys Click has brought into the farm system (Santos, Whitacker, Whitcomb, McDermott, Leon, Diaz). I think there is a much better case that the 2019 Astros Farm System was even better than expected than the current farm system is okay.
I agree with organization talent going. I don't understand why the reputation goes up except that the team knows how to acquire and develop talent. On highly ranked farm systems not meaning much... 2019 Top Farms SDP...they are good again. TBR are great despite not spending ATL..Won 2022 WS. HOU..Lost 2019 WS and 2021 WS. Lost 2020 ALCS TOR..they are great again CHW...they are annoying, but have a good team. LAD....won 2020 WS. Of the bottom teams in 2019 farms, the Giants and Yankees are the only good teams, and those teams were not built from that farm system.
Clearly a good farm system is better than not when it comes to future competitiveness. I think of it as a competitive cycle where there's an inverse relationship with farm system rank. There are obviously exceptions: the Dodgers are perennially competitive and boast a strong farm system. Some teams are a hot mess in the majors and still don't have a great farm system. Tampa competes and usually has a strong farm club. But the majority of teams (probably greater than 20) in the middle of their competitive window don't tend to have strong farm clubs. By the late stage of the competitive window, the farm maybe be bottom 10 necessitating a rebuild. Most of the teams on the 2019 list were not good then and even now 3 years later they're early-mid in their competitive window. Atlanta got back to the promised land within 2 years of that list, but SDP/TOR/CHW haven't made any playoff noise yet. The Astros were lucky enough to be in the middle of their competitive window in 2019 and IMHO have prolonged it a lot longer than anyone could reasonably expect through luck, shrewd talent evaluation and strong development (mostly of unheralded players). When I say a low-ranked system for the Astros doesn't mean much, it's in the context that the Stros have continued to use their farm system to maintain a competitive club. But do I expect three years down the line to still be a contender? Honestly no. The Astros are the only team in the wild-card era to make 5 straight LCS appearances. Seriously doubt it gets to 8.
I get that the Astros don't need a great farm with their talent at the MLB level. Just need enough to keep filling holes with guys like Meyers and Pena. It would be nice if there was enough to do more than trade guys that are clogging up the bottom of the 40-man. On being a contender three years down the road....Astros still have Alvarez, Tucker, and Pena for the this and the following 3 years along with having 5 SPs under control/contract. I expect Crane to drop some serious dough next offseason. So I doubt 8 straight ALCS appearances, but see 7 out of 9 ALCSs with another ring as a decent chance through 2025.
He trains here: https://www.jdbbaseball.com/ eta, just watched that video. Love the short-pitch, that **** is tough.
Jonathan Bermudez has definitely hit his first major speed bump with Sugar Land... he now has a 6.28 ERA, but an outing in which he got blasted for 10 runs would certainly be the culprit. It does look like he's starting to rediscover the strikeout touch, so a respectable showing should result in him getting his first call-up in September. Tough AA debut for Adrian Chaidez: 2.2 IP, 6 H (2-R HR allowed), 5 ER, 3 BB, 4 K. Grae Kessinger hit his 4th homer for Corpus in their 9-5 loss to Midland. Justin Dirden went 3-5 with a couple of doubles... his slash line now reads .305/.396/.495. Asheville scored 11 runs in their final two innings to beat Greenville 14-7... Cristian Gonzalez hit his second homer of the season. J.C. Correa drove in 4, and Nerio Rodriguez went 2-3 with a two-run single and scored 3 runs. Nerio is now hitting .301/.402/.639 this year, so he's clearly enjoying his surroundings. He is hitting a respectable .278/.381/.528 on the road, so maybe this offensive outburst isn't totally illusory. Edinson Batista turned in 5 dominant innings of relief for Fayetteville: 5 IP, 3 H (solo HR allowed), ER, BB, and a career-high 10 K. I talked about him briefly last month... he might be building some helium soon.
Mike Papierski traded for Mauricio Dubon. Yet another prospect who was never on a single org top prospect list flipped for solid MLB value. Dubon was SF’s #11 prospect in 2020 and has put up 1.4 fwar in 524 mlb pa. Only 27 and comes controlled thru 2027. I love Papierski but this is good trade for Houston and another sign their farm is underrated.
Papierski was not on the 40 man. Dubon is currently shown on their 40 man roster as optioned so not sure if they had an open spot or made a corresponding move I didn’t catch.
Yeah, it doesn't appear Papierski was going to get an opportunity in Houston and he's been pretty much the same guy in AAA over the past few years. Good to get an MLB player for him who should be an upgrade over Goodrum.
Regarding Justin Dirden, does anybody know what his defense is like? He's a big guy but supposedly has speed. Could he be a CF possibility, or is he limited to just the corners?
He was the Astros third catcher this year and was one injury to one of our ancient catchers away. To me this means the wait for Lee is near it's end. There is no one else ready to add to the roster if a third catcher is required, he is it.
I don’t know for sure if that’s the case. If they had an injury and didn’t think Lee is ready, Going out and grabbing a Chris Herrmann or Dustin Garneau type at a moments notice is not difficult or expensive.
